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2014 Dec 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

yo2020

By yo2020,
in General Car Discussion

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Quantum

Quantum

5th Gear

35ml5bd.png

 

will the demand for Cat A continue to soften?

 

the estimated COE quota frm Feb 2015 was computed in Post #44 in this thread: http://www.mycarforum.com/topic/2696791-monthly-sharing-on-dereg-data-projected-coe-quota

Now most ADs already lower down their price even if COE not down, I believe next round COE will up all, but ADs will not increase price too much, they need to fight yearly profit

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Chucky2007

Chucky2007

Turbocharged

Btw, one AD started lowering price by 2k, with 8 non guaranteed bid... It used to be 2 guaranteed bid with 2k higher price ar coe rebate level 63k..

 

I didn't check what's their new coe rebate.. May be adjusted downwards.

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Powxus

Powxus

3rd Gear

Btw, one AD started lowering price by 2k, with 8 non guaranteed bid... It used to be 2 guaranteed bid with 2k higher price ar coe rebate level 63k..

 

I didn't check what's their new coe rebate.. May be adjusted downwards.

 

Meaning the AD do not expect too much changes in COE in the next 2 months if the difference is just $2k.

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Matrix0405

Matrix0405

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Predict Cat A drop by $3-5K.

 

 

 

This news article should push the Cat A beyond 800 pcs, where supply meets demand. Plus end of claw back in Jan, drop $3 - $5K is a given. not next round but in Jan. Dereg no. in Dec will indicate if the no. can burst 800 or even 1000.

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yo2020

yo2020

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(edited)

Predict Cat A drop by $3-5K.

the photo is v blur, it's time to change your hp!! [:p]

Edited by yo2020
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yo2020

yo2020

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  • Author

 

 


This news article should push the Cat A beyond 800 pcs, where supply meets demand. Plus end of claw back in Jan, drop $3 - $5K is a given. not next round but in Jan. Dereg no. in Dec will indicate if the no. can burst 800 or even 1000.

based on the dereg data for Oct n Nov, i'm pretty sure it is beyond 900. most likely will b around 1000. see the link in Post #1. [;)]
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Aukang

Aukang

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(edited)

My 3 hopes:

 

1. Hope it drops across the board. See a possible trend....There are more COEs and less bidders in the last round. So maybe the ADs already have enough open COEs on hand to see them through festive season now and late Jan 15.

2. Hope number of deregs go up instead of getting PQPs so quota in next and subsequent quarters will increase.

3. Nothing to do with COE though and actually a wish ...Hope everyone in MCF enjoy this festive season, and have a wonderful and fulfilling year ahead.

Edited by Aukang
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Hshs

Hshs

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(edited)

the photo is v blur, it's time to change your hp!! [:p]

Sorry about that. I try to figure out the important one:

Unless LTA try to hold back. The next COE quota likely to increase minimum 30% for Cat A and

20% for the rest. This is due to huge increase of scraping of vehicles last two month. December figure not out yet but should'nt lower than that. Although vehicle annual increment reduce. But compare to the amount of de-register vehicles. It was insignificant. The article also mention that there was about 97000 of vehicles due to srap next year(2015). Which is about 8000 per month.

If u want full details. Just go and buy today Zaobao or go community center for free.

Edited by Hshs
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yo2020

yo2020

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  • Author

Sorry about that. I try to figure out the important one:

Unless LTA try to hold back. The next COE quota likely to increase minimum 30% for Cat A and

20% for the rest. This is due to huge increase of scraping of vehicles last two month. December figure not out yet but should'nt lower than that. Although vehicle annual increment reduce. But compare to the amount of de-register vehicles. It was insignificant. The article also mention that there was about 97000 of vehicles due to srap next year(2015). Which is about 8000 per month.

If u want full details. Just go and buy today Zaobao or go community center for free.

i dont need to buy la. my computed figure is up 39-40% for Cat A as shared in another thread. :D
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car138

car138

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Ultimately, whether COE price will drop, it is still back to demand and supply. How many existing car owners willingly to give up driving versus those wanted to be car owners? As long as the former is less the later, it is hard for COE price to drop much.

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Forte3737

Forte3737

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Ultimately, whether COE price will drop, it is still back to demand and supply. How many existing car owners willingly to give up driving versus those wanted to be car owners? As long as the former is less the later, it is hard for COE price to drop much.

True, but a lot of people like to use stats to cheat themselves into thinking coe will fall below 50k

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Quantum

Quantum

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Predict Cat A drop by $3-5K.

most likely before Feb-2015 few rounds COE are the lowest COE, because whoever want to buy cars once they heard this news, definitely hold their purchase waiting the 30% quota plunge to market, so from now to Feb-2015 who buy who is carrot [knife]

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