2015 Aug, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[yo2020]

 

did agt manage to get as many signed bookings over 2 weekends?

 

[kmttan]

 

did agt manage to get as many signed bookings over 2 weekends?

 

 

Last weekend, the entire country were spending time in the queues for free rides :-)

 

Since some ADs maintain their prices at the previous level, I predict Cat A - 55K, Cat B - 58K.

[Limwsv]

Sorry people who are trying to follow the Demand Analysis. Thread got locked by mod before I finish updating the article. All the text all lost.

 

Anyway, I have calculated the boundaries of the income/saving bands using the GINI coefficient. Not going to re-type how i's done with the lost article.

 

Anyway... you can use my original article to complete the remaining analysis using this technique:

1. Calculate the rich plus ultra-rich replacing the cars for the next three years (total demand).

2. Subtract that demand from the total available COEs for next 3 years, ie 270 000.

3. Repeat for next band. You can do two projections. One is the worse case, every body in the 70th - 80th percentile wants to buy a car. The normal case will be the existing pool wants to buy a car.

4. Subtract that number from whats left of the 270 000 COEs.

5. Repeat for each band until all the 270 000 COEs are exhausted.

6. The income band that uses up the last few COEs will be the bottom of our cycle.

 

Bye and thanks for the fish!

Edited August 14, 2015 by Limwsv

[Forte3737]

Waste of bandwidth leh.

Sorry people who are trying to follow the Demand Analysis. Thread got locked by mod before I finish updating the article. All the text all lost.

 

Anyway, I have calculated the boundaries of the income/saving bands using the GINI coefficient. Not going to re-type how i's done with the lost article.

 

Anyway... you can use my original article to complete the remaining analysis using this technique:

1. Calculate the rich plus ultra-rich replacing the cars for the next three years (total demand).

2. Subtract that demand from the total available COEs for next 3 years, ie 270 000.

3. Repeat for next band. You can do two projections. One is the worse case, every body in the 70th - 80th percentile wants to buy a car. The normal case will be the existing pool wants to buy a car.

4. Subtract that number from whats left of the 270 000 COEs.

5. Repeat for each band until all the 270 000 COEs are exhausted.

6. The income band that uses up the last few COEs will be the bottom of our cycle.

 

Bye and thanks for the fish!

 

[Hshs]

Most Cat will be green this round.

Even red also up by a little only I think.

Cat A $54,888

Cat B $59,888

Edited August 14, 2015 by Hshs

[starrynight000]

Thanks for the info.

 

Just to clarify: what do the upper and lower "bounds" within a tier refer to? Some sort of quantile / decile?

 

Sorry people who are trying to follow the Demand Analysis. Thread got locked by mod before I finish updating the article. All the text all lost.

 

Anyway, I have calculated the boundaries of the income/saving bands using the GINI coefficient. Not going to re-type how i's done with the lost article.

 

Anyway... you can use my original article to complete the remaining analysis using this technique:

1. Calculate the rich plus ultra-rich replacing the cars for the next three years (total demand).

2. Subtract that demand from the total available COEs for next 3 years, ie 270 000.

3. Repeat for next band. You can do two projections. One is the worse case, every body in the 70th - 80th percentile wants to buy a car. The normal case will be the existing pool wants to buy a car.

4. Subtract that number from whats left of the 270 000 COEs.

5. Repeat for each band until all the 270 000 COEs are exhausted.

6. The income band that uses up the last few COEs will be the bottom of our cycle.

 

Bye and thanks for the fish!

 

[Ben5266]

 

did agt manage to get as many signed bookings over 2 weekends?

 

This weekend, more see car than buy car.

[Enye]

Sorry people who are trying to follow the Demand Analysis. Thread got locked by mod before I finish updating the article. All the text all lost.

 

Anyway, I have calculated the boundaries of the income/saving bands using the GINI coefficient. Not going to re-type how i's done with the lost article.

 

Anyway... you can use my original article to complete the remaining analysis using this technique:

1. Calculate the rich plus ultra-rich replacing the cars for the next three years (total demand).

2. Subtract that demand from the total available COEs for next 3 years, ie 270 000.

3. Repeat for next band. You can do two projections. One is the worse case, every body in the 70th - 80th percentile wants to buy a car. The normal case will be the existing pool wants to buy a car.

4. Subtract that number from whats left of the 270 000 COEs.

5. Repeat for each band until all the 270 000 COEs are exhausted.

6. The income band that uses up the last few COEs will be the bottom of our cycle.

 

Bye and thanks for the fish!

 

those households in the 81st to 100 percentile income which currently own cars, highly likely possess 2 cars per household (1 each for the couple)

 

if they decide to change both cars over the next 3 years, all the available COEs over the next 3 years would not be sufficient to cater to this demand

 

[Hengstanley]

Likely Green. But slight drop.

Reason 7th month, TY resign, increase in car price by dealer. IMO

[Alpha78]

This weekend, more see car than buy car.

 

7th month lai liao... no one want to sign for new car, better still. COE price can take a big drop, then the dealers have to drop prices accordingly.

[Darryn]

Just look at all the green for open Cat...

 

Sommore got the recent announcement of no clawback

 

Green across the board for the coming round

[Jasbert]

My estimation is sgd5k drop in each category (A & B) given LTY's announcement of no OCS for at least 2 years. Dealers have more leeway to spread out their bids.

[Abhor]

Just look at all the green for open Cat...

 

Sommore got the recent announcement of no clawback

 

Green across the board for the coming round

 

Found the link. http://www.sgcarmart.com/news/article.php?AID=13464

Edited August 14, 2015 by Abhor

[Darryn]

 

Do you have a link for the announcement?

Your computer don't have google ah?

[Ben5266]

Your computer don't have google ah?

You kena RadXitist?

Why sounds like him.

[RadX]

You kena RadXitist?

Why sounds like him.

 

 

eh ministar caliblur hor....dun play play

 

 

'what do you think?'

[Enye]

this is what happens when cars become cheaper and cheaper

 

demand increases disproportionately

 

 

拥车证成价走软　“红牌车”走俏

李静仪

随着拥车证成价开始走软，沉寂了好几年的“红牌车”也开始走俏，过去几个月来新注册的红牌车逐渐增加，6月的新注册红牌车更是比前一个月份激增了八成，今年上半年的数字也创下过去2年来的最高纪录。

　　红牌车买主可享有多达1万7000元的税务回扣，但过去几年来，由于拥车证成价居高不下，新车售价水涨船高，使得在非繁忙时段使用的红牌车（Off-Peak Car）较不受落。

　　陆路交通管理局的数据显示，过去2年来，新注册的红牌车每月最多只有几十辆，有好些月份甚至只有不到10辆。但在今年6月，这类汽车从5月的58辆一下激增到105辆，这也是过去4年多来，新注册的红牌车数量在单月份首次攀升到3位数。

　　今年上半年新注册的红牌车也增加到301辆，超越过去2年的数量，其中有八成以上是中小型汽车，只有少数是大型与豪华车。

　　受访的车商指出，中小型汽车（A组）拥车证成价近来开始走软，相信这些注册红牌车的买主的旧车拥车证就快“寿终”，但他们又不想掏出这么多钱购买一般的新车，于是决定转向红牌车。

　　在今年上半年，A组成价介于5万7199元至6万8589元之间，去年同期则介于6万元至7万8602元。

　　嘉摩哆总经理黄成顺表示：“拥车证成价下滑，把新车注册为红牌车就比较划算，相信这些买家是认为价格比较合理才进场。”

　　以售价约9万元的日产小型轿车NOTE（1.2公升）为例，扣除1万7000元的回扣后，约卖7万2800元。

　　新加坡车业公会秘书长苏永祥认为，“买家得以现金支付车价40％或50％的首期，虽然红牌车的1万7000元税务回扣不算可观，但总好过没有。”

 

[Ben5266]

 

 

eh ministar caliblur hor....dun play play

 

 

'what do you think?'

Darryn is also Mini-star wannabe?

 

I see.. I see...

 

 

Your skin thick? Heart soft?

 

(Not I say one. LTY say one)