Private property prices... Up or Down?

[Hishercar]

this time round it may be different from SARs saga

 

 

house sellers are boleh tahan group after made a killing in enblock sale and are able to service loan without being high gear

 

learnt their lesson the previous time

 

there hold on to their price with a little downward adjustment

 

there will be a few % that are marginal player and got caught

 

these last group are perhaps small

 

 

singapore is a finite area and increase in the population and cash rich people around

 

property price has its cycle but each cycle it test a new high price

 

 

so next cycle high price sell

 

I was too late on this cycle

[Throttle2]

Understand what you mean but the Price itself does affect the sentiment, dude.

 

Thats especially so as property is generally different from stocks.

There is a real use for property, whereas for stocks there is no real use (unless you are a tycoon doing a takeover)

 

Even with this difference, if a stock is cheaper, say, after a split, it usually garners more buying due to price decrease factors. (many high price stocks like this strategy to increase Mkt Cap)

 

for me, the earliest i will jump in again is 2010 depending on the environment.

Edited October 19, 2008 by Throttle2

[Eacs]

Just to share my few cents about the property market.

 

When the buyers buy their unit in 2005/06 its at the rising state(eg $450psf) for the passed years it has rose any incresed of 40-60% (eg 650psf). The seller might be a ble to fetch about S$500psf now.Its slighly higher than breakeven point.Just the the "profit" its not there.Looking at the current suitation the property has dropped and it would not drop till the rock bottom prices. Its always like this, some seller's wants more & more when they wants to sell, and the buyers will wait for the price to drop and when its drops it will wait for the price to drop more.Never Ending.

 

As some of us know that most of the buyers now are not buyers of the passed (10-12 years ago). They would only invest certain percentage in property/stock/shares and have some spare with them.

 

The same old saying still stands "The first lost it's always the best lost". Till date it still stands.

 

Hope that the current suitation will be better.If not the poorer people will be more at the losing end.Things are getting more ex and demanding.

 

Just some thoughts.have a great weekend.

[Chongster]

Ya man, I'm lucky to have disposed all before the dive .

 

Regards,

 

well done, i am sure it's not luck but foresight and good judgment; for every seller like you, there must be a buyer who bought it from you; he might be sweating in the pants now and working hard to fund your retirement for you ... then again, if he can keep for 10 years, he can probably make his money back.

 

any thoughts of going back into the market soon? i assume you have the bullets now

[Chongster]

I let go my properties too but bot one to live in as i prefer to own rather than rent.

 

I guess I might lose one or two BMWs on paper but i'll get to enjoy staying in it so i'm not bothered. It's very important to plan right and remain discipline to carry out the plan, whether in economic crisis or not.

 

Have a friend who was too bullish on the property market, now ridden in debt.

Despite my advice to reduce this exposure last year, he didnt listen yet jeered at me.

now. pretty sorry state...sigh....

 

Hope people think twice before committing. Same for buying cars with big loans.

 

i too know of many with 4 properties. and like you say, they make about 20k a month. it really is down to jobs, rental income, and interest rates movement. we know jobs will be weak, rental is coming down, any thoughts abt the interest rates factor?

 

with the govt guarantee on bank deposits, and people's adversion on other products, US possibly cutting rates, need to keep S$ down, i think at the very least interest rates will remain super low.

 

i agree the earliest to start smelling around is 2010. in the meantime, stocks will start to look compelling first before property...

Edited October 19, 2008 by Chongster

[Throttle2]

You are right, Dude.

 

However, to take it further, we were not referring to the man in the street with only one property costing only $400k - $600k. That is like penny stock. one lot $200? $300? cant lose much.

 

But look at the big guns. one lot already lose a rolex watch.

from $6 to $1, from $16 to $6, from $15 to $5....

I'm sure you can fathom the amount of wealth being wiped out, realised or otherwise.

A lot of such wealth is geared so double whammy.

 

Anyway, the supply of private properties are plentiful, a few of us here have been repeating. The take up rate was high in the past years becos the economy was good so people leverage and were more daring to hold additonal properties. In other words, spending on speculative income (which may never come)

Now is the turning point.

 

If one only has one property (the one he is living in) there is no real reason to sell it, as long as he is enjoying and can afford it. becos even after selling, need to buy or rent. Very laychey. This group wont sell, agreed.

 

But the group with knees are trembling for those who took up huge loans for their properties be it first second third etc... If rich and have cash, can still tahan.

but otherwise now .....if things dont improve, (we know it wont in the short run) the sweat become

 

As mentioned first tier properties are easily given at 25% - 30% off peak.

It wont be long before it is given at 50% off peak, in my opinion.

Then second tier will drop as well although not as much but easily 30%.

 

take care.

[Throttle2]

Only $20k per month with 4 properties??!?!?!?

Even if the person is young and single with no commitments, he is asking for it.

 

Interest rates cant be too low.

That is what killed the world in the first place.

I think the govt knows.

Benchmark at least 2% is where i personally forecast for Singapore.

Whatever it is, i just hope that things stabilise.

Only then, can we rebuild what was lost.

 

Sincerely.

[Chongster]

yeap, and not just one, i know more than a few people like that. and there's a whole group of financial institution people depending on their year end bonus to meet the next DPS payment. god bless them. not to mention property agents who took bites at the mkt themselves.

 

as the guru says, when the tide goes out, you know who's been swimming without trunks

[Eacs]

Its the risk lor. The more you own the higher the risk. When in good times who will complaint about making more $$$$. when in dire straits they start to panic and make lots of noise.those who makes the most noise in bad times are those that its sweating in their pants.pls do not get the wrong msg, i am not refering to any1 here.Just the general public.I have seen many and the worst ones too.

 

have a great weekend.

[Nhyone]

Personally, I think Singapore will try its best to keep interest rate low. Even a moderate interest rate will cause hardship to anyone servicing loans. Whether interest rate can remain low is another matter.

[Hishercar]

you wish may not come true

 

they know we are going into recession

 

what have they done

 

 

set up more ERP

 

increase electricity bill by 21%

 

 

what is your opinion now

[Veryfree]

When in bad times, everyone blame others, including immigrants for causing

price downtrend...

by the way, Serangoon Road is little India in Singapore, So, Serangoon Garden

should be little Bombay in Singapore, right? why are they so bias against

own race of people?

[Jayzee]

Follow Kelpie, sell now!

 

I just read yesterday chinese newspaper...

they got show a chart on the property price..

 

Right now, it is a double top.. at 78.6 fibo level. 80% is moving downward now..

once it break the last 'low' (which is few months ago), it is a straight DOWN!

 

--

 

btw I don't own any properties(mid 20 only ..own WHAT! got 1 bicycle though:) ) .. what i said is based on Technical analysis..

Edited October 20, 2008 by Jayzee

[Roborovskii]

I found this particularly simple yet insightful - http://www.salary.sg/2008/property-must-crash-see-graph/

[King_of_abalone]

my fren,

 

Even though they may be on the same road, this road is very long, Little India and Serangoon Garden is like from South to North.

[Roborovskii]

I thinks he was making a joke.

[King_of_abalone]

very good advice.

 

thing is, a lot of district 9 properties are already advertising at 25% off their peak. the river valley apts going for 2k plus are asking for 1400+. buyers have evaporated. more and more sellers are coming to the market.

 

 

Hey, i am interested in one new river valley condo. Any chance the price can crash to $700 psf? If now is $1400 psf, 50% off is $700 right? Possible or not?

[Jacf]

times must be really bad if prices can slashed to 50%..