Should I Renew COE Now?

[Vinceng]

Now that I have renewed my COE at $13,800, let us refer back to this topic again in 2011 to see where COE prices stand, and if I had made a wrong decision.

 

My decision to prematurely renew my COE 2 yrs earlier is due to the numerus newspaper articles by Christopher Tan that COE prices are bound to rise above $20,000 with the cut in the quota.

 

http://cars.st701.com/articles/view/5104?t...a-cut-by-15.7%#

 

 

COE quota cut by 15.7%

Motorists are holding on to their cars longer in a weakened economy

By Christopher Tan

Published: September 25 2009,

The Straits Times

................................................................................

..

THE Government has reduced the supply of Certificates of Entitlement (COEs) for the next six months, in a widely-anticipated move that will continue to see car prices head upwards.

 

According to details released by the Land Transport Authority (LTA) on Thursday, the revised supply from October to March is 15.7per cent smaller than the previous six-month period, which was itself 24.1 per cent down on last year's quota.

 

COE supply is determined largely by the number of vehicles taken off the road. The LTA reviews the supply every six months and, if necessary, makes adjustments to the numbers.

 

The latest revised figures reflect a slowdown in the number of vehicles taken off the road this year. In the first eight months of the year, about 43,000 vehicles were deregistered - 17 per cent fewer than in the same period last year.

 

Motor industry players say car owners are holding on to their existing vehicles longer. This is mainly because consumers have generally become more cautious since the financial crisis kicked in late last year.

 

Another reason cited is that many motorists are saddled with sizeable car loans and would be out of pocket if they traded in their vehicles for new ones.

 

As a result of the new quota, motor traders said COE premiums - and consequently, vehicle prices - will continue to spiral upwards. Car prices have, on average, risen by around $10,000 this year.

 

Mr Neo Nam Heng, president of the Automotive Importers and Exporters Association, said: 'COEs have hit $20,000 far sooner than most of us expected. So, I think premiums will hit $25,000 next, starting with the big-car categories.'

 

Other traders pointed out that the halving of the COE bidding deposit to $5,000 starting next month will also encourage more people to bid. This could fuel the price spiral.

 

Mr Vincent Ng, product manager with Honda agent Kah Motor, said the latest supply reduction was 'not as drastic as expected' and he believes there will be more cuts ahead. Next year, he expects around 60,000 new cars to be sold, about 40per cent fewer than last year.

[Ahyoo2002]

Now that I have renewed my COE at $13,800, let us refer back to this topic again in 2011 to see where COE prices stand, and if I had made a wrong decision.

 

Please remind us, I am keen to know.

[Skxly]

It is unlikely to see COE quota premium to go below $10K unless another major economic crisis strikes. If the option of getting a new ride is out for you, I think renewing now is better than to wait. Don't worry whether it is a good or bad decision (it is already a sunk cost), continue enjoying your ride and maintain it well to outlast the second COE expiry.

[Jamesc]

then what makes it hit rock bottom a few months back?

You mean the COE crash in Mar 2009?

 

The credit crunch caused by the US housing market

collaspe.

[Osiris]

You mean the COE crash in Mar 2009?

 

The credit crunch caused by the US housing market

collaspe.

eh, you're replying to 1 year old thread

[Thedream]

eh, you're replying to 1 year old thread

 

it's a good opening of a time capsule to see that the majority of advice given (through the poll) were wrong

[Vinceng]

 

I went against majority's advise and pre maturely renewed my COE 2 yrs before it's due.

 

Did so with a heavy heart exactly a yr ago.

 

But with COE premiums more than double in just 12 mths, I have no regrets.

 

Had I renewed my COE now, I'd have paid over $30K against what I paid ($13.5K).

 

And I doubt prices would be any lower next yr with more quota cuts expected.

Edited October 12, 2010 by Vinceng

[Vhtfhwlego]

Just to check, do u still have the PARF amount from your OMV after renew?

[Vinceng]

 

Yes my car still has PARF value now. 90% of OMV.

 

Next yr before its 10th yr, PARF is 80% of OMV.

 

Thereafter from 10th yr, PARF is forfeited.

 

Rd tax also increases 10% every yr up to a max of 50% surcharge.

 

And have to send for inspection yearly.

[Vinceng]

Deleted.

 

Duplicate post.

Edited October 12, 2010 by Vinceng

[Vinceng]

 

I went against majority's advise and pre maturely renewed my COE 2 yrs before it's due.

 

Did so with a heavy heart exactly a yr ago.

 

But with COE premiums more than double in just 12 mths, I have no regrets.

 

Had I renewed my COE now, I'd have paid over $30K against what I paid ($13.5K).

 

And I doubt prices would be any lower next yr with more quota cuts expected.

 

 

Exactly 2 yrs ago, prevailing quota premiums was $13K, during which I renewed mine 2 yrs premature.

 

The decision was made with a heavy heart as there was a possibility that prices may soften or at least remain on 2011 due to many COE cars being scrapped in Aug 2011.

 

Last yr, prices more than doubled to $30K.

 

Now, exactly 2 yrs later, prices have tripled to almost $60K.

 

Am glad I allowed my intuition to make the decision and saved at least $43K as a result, although I lost $6K of my previous $30K COE value as I renewed my COE 2 yrs premature.

[Ithunk]

Exactly 2 yrs ago, prevailing quota premiums was $13K, during which I renewed mine 2 yrs premature.

 

The decision was made with a heavy heart as there was a possibility that prices may soften or at least remain on 2011 due to many COE cars being scrapped in Aug 2011.

 

Last yr, prices more than doubled to $30K.

 

Now, exactly 2 yrs later, prices have tripled to almost $60K.

 

Am glad I allowed my intuition to make the decision and saved at least $43K as a result, although I lost $6K of my previous $30K COE value as I renewed my COE 2 yrs premature.

 

my bro paid 60k for coe

[Angelvine]

coe will never below 30k from now... for another 3 yrs...

[Good-Carbuyer]

coe will never below 30k from now... for another 3 yrs...

COE climbing again, but quite a sum now to renew COE for used car?

[Camrytron]

COE climbing again, but quite a sum now to renew COE for used car?

that's why now car dont renew just scrap

[Camrytron]

Exactly 2 yrs ago, prevailing quota premiums was $13K, during which I renewed mine 2 yrs premature.

 

The decision was made with a heavy heart as there was a possibility that prices may soften or at least remain on 2011 due to many COE cars being scrapped in Aug 2011.

 

Last yr, prices more than doubled to $30K.

 

Now, exactly 2 yrs later, prices have tripled to almost $60K.

 

Am glad I allowed my intuition to make the decision and saved at least $43K as a result, although I lost $6K of my previous $30K COE value as I renewed my COE 2 yrs premature.

u make quiet a wise choice,the next COE drop will be after 2014/2015..

u still got many years more to wait & see..

[Good-Carbuyer]

u make quiet a wise choice,the next COE drop will be after 2014/2015..

u still got many years more to wait & see..

COE must come down for next GE, then shoot up again after that

[Camrytron]

COE must come down for next GE, then shoot up again after that

it will come down before GE but when will go up dont know..

i think in 2014 even it'll come down,i dont think we can expect below 5K Coe for CAT A/B

it'll be good if it will mantain at 8K CAT A, 15K CAT B..

like that people will not rush in to buy cars just for buying..