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Housing market set for prolonged downturn: Daiwa


Without_a_car
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Housing market set for prolonged downturn: Daiwa

04:45 AM Nov 18, 2011

 

SINGAPORE - The housing market in Singapore is heading for a prolonged downturn and overall private home prices are forecast to fall between 22 and 26 per cent in the next three years, Daiwa Research said. "We believe the residential property market could remain depressed for several years, triggered initially by a likely forthcoming gross domestic product slowdown (in 2012) and lingering global economic uncertainty," it said.

 

From late next year, Daiwa said, structural issues such as the rapid build-up in unsold inventory in the primary market and vacant rental units will take centre stage and keep home prices and rents in check for several years.

 

The mass-market segment will hold up slightly better than high-end properties, supported by better affordability and the resilience in the resale prices of Housing and Development Board flats, Daiwa said.

 

The house has downgraded its view of Singapore's property sector to "Negative" from "Neutral", adding that "it is hard for us to see the developer shares outperforming the Straits Times Index over the next six months" despite their underperformance in the year to date. DOW JONES

URL http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Proper...downturn--Daiwa

 

Copyright 2011 MediaCorp Pte Ltd | All Rights Reserved

 

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You have work in hand?

going to be out of job soon. if really can't find a job, worst case, sell away my car and be a taxi driver :D

Edited by Jp66
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aiming for hdb resale flat only [:)]

I don't think resale price will drop at most hold for awhile than inch slowly up again even though thousands of BTO coming online in a few years but don't forget all these BTO can only go into resale 5 yrs after collection of keys so better don't place too high hopes of buying a resale Hdb on the cheap... My 2 cents ^_^

Edited by Fri13th
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Rubbish! How can property prices drop in Singapore we got so many rich people here driving Porsche to prop up the market anytime!

 

nah. i dont think they have so much appetite to be provide a sufficient driving force to prop up the market. To be rich is one thing, to visibly sway the market to think that buying sentiment is still very much there, it is very very much another. I reckon if there is something to prop the market, it will be the unrelenting droves of PRC who come here to buy and settle payment in full cash. Settling payment one shot by wads of cash is a very powerful signal. Imagine droves of speculators doing that. I doubt there are ALOT of locals doing that to be honest.

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I don't think resale price will drop at most hold for awhile than inch slowly up again even though thousands of BTO coming online in a few years but don't forget all these BTO can only go into resale 5 yrs after collection of keys so better don't place too high hopes of buying a resale Hdb on the cheap... My 2 cents ^_^

 

aSssuming population growth above 1% per annum, the tail end effect of the big BTO supply after MOP, is between 6-8yrs time, when say 40% of the BTOs get flogged into the mkt as owners upgrade to private housing.

 

Question is will this flogging situation create a short term oversupply in HDB resale similar to early 2000?

 

say the flooding of resale BTO occurs 7yrs later, thats 2018, exactly 10yrs after 2008 crisis. before that in 1998 financial crisis... scary

Edited by Duckduck
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