The Perfect Storm of the Stock Market II

[Throttle2]

This one Tenyawph also said the same.

[Mason016]

aldo not nice to wear and lousy quality .... at the end , still my chip sport shoe the best

Yeah I heard about some sports shoes cost more than a atas bag that you see many women carry.

 

 

I wear what is comfortable and lasts me 10 years.

[Sdf4786k]

Yah lor so its a brilliant way to get Singaporeans committed.

 

But usually due to changing times even brilliant plans work against us. Hahaha

 

but those who LL need to stay HDB and starting out would have make major capital appreciation.

 

Imagine if you were in the pioneer generation period. Buy tanglin halt. Kanna SERs.

 

Your 6,000 dollars investment becomes 320,000 min returns.

 

Try that same equation in Malaysia or indonesia or thailand.

 

HK however , u also huat big time.

Edited May 23, 2017 by Sdf4786k

[Throttle2]

but those who LL need to stay HDB and starting out would have make major capital appreciation.

 

Imagine if you were in the pioneer generation period. Buy tanglin halt. Kanna SERs.

 

Your 6,000 dollars investment becomes 320,000 min returns.

 

Try that same equation in Malaysia or indonesia or thailand.

 

HK however , u also huat big time.

Dont get me wrong, its definitely a good formula overall.

It only works against us if we fail to balance the effects and go chasing it.

And thats just my view, it could work well for some other people.

[Throttle2]

Noble trading again, sure go crazy....like see saw

[Sunny]

A follow up since i already mentioned this trade.

Comfeed Finance redeemed 91% of this issue at 101.50

So basically whatever i have calculated above is now materialised with profits sitting in my acct.

 

Took two days to think about redeployment and have just done so in several different asset classes with a combined projected yield of 6.9%pa.

Dont ask me what i invested in, here.

 

Just know that stocks is not everything and the key is to be diversified.

 

 

[Throttle2]

swee..song song gao jurong

 

 

soon soon gao yishun

Thank you Bro,

But all these are short term one time gains.

The real battle is long term consistency and sustainable income.

[tenyawph]

My take on STI

Currently, the stock market is holding steady, drifting, I will say.  To move up or down significantly, it needs a catalyst.  What is this catalyst?  I don't know. 

 

My personal assessment

Yet, I made an assessment that the market is going to move soon, and possibly down.  I based this on the SGX's loose correlation with STI.  When the STI up, SGX is up, and vice versa. 

 

1) I put the two charts together.  Recently, this correlation breaks down since late Apr 2017.  STI is up, SGX is down. 

 

2) At the same time, I monitor close to 150 stocks (active ones) in our local market (it is made up of 800+ stocks) daily.  So I thnk I have a good breadth of the market in general.  The broader market, in general,  is facing a weakness for a while now. STI is moving up, yet the broad market is not following.  What is happening? 

 

I am not suggesting people to pull out of their stock market now, if they are long term investors.

 

But since my stock portfolio is small, I am very flexible to move to cash easily.  But I still leave my REITS stocks in there.

 

 

The verdict is still out there.  I do not know if my assessment is correct.  Let's wait for more time for this to unfold.

 

Finally, the SGX stock started to correlate with STI, and the broader market has come alive again.  With this divergence disappearing, it's time for me to move in again. 

 

Let's all huat together.  But be very selective, since some stock counters, after announcing their 1st Qtr results, with their negative forward guidance, are a no-no for me. 

 

When in doubt, avoid the loss-making stocks.  Nibble (buy in small amount, spread buys of the same counter over time).  You already won half the battle. 

 

I shall listen to Iisterry, don't announce singular positions publicly.

[2BDriver]

Finally, the SGX stock started to correlate with STI, and the broader market has come alive again. With this divergence disappearing, it's time for me to move in again.

 

Let's all huat together. But be very selective, since some stock counters, after announcing their 1st Qtr results, with their negative forward guidance, are a no-no for me.

 

When in doubt, avoid the loss-making stocks. Nibble (buy in small amount, spread buys of the same counter over time). You already won half the battle.

 

I shall listen to Iisterry, don't announce singular positions publicly.

Bro tenyawph,

Kindly PM me those potential counters under your watched, I got stuck in one that need to wait too long.

TIA.

[Throttle2]

Noble downgraded to B- by Fitch.

Jialat, already difficulty in refinancing, now worse.

 

This is just like a human being.

Everything buy on instalments, acquire assets, cashflow bad.

Now got problems refinancing or borrowing to repay.

May be forced to sell, take losses, shrink portfolio.

 

Haiz....

 

 

[tenyawph]

Bro tenyawph,

Kindly PM me those potential counters under your watched, I got stuck in one that need to wait too long.

TIA.

 

You ask the wrong guy.  My current purchases are more towards penny stocks (high growth ones, with greater capital gains but comes with higher risk).  So I will make a lot sometimes, and then nothing for a period of time (like now, for the month of May, only collect dividends and sitting on small paper profits).

 

You should ask T2, his is towards yearly consistent return.   

 

However, if a market crash is to occur, my investment mode will change (my battle plan which I already shared in this thread before). Going for those big-cap stocks with institutional holdings (my watch-list), and then achieve a large margin of safety when the market recovers.  Then I will be pursuing my 4-line signature. 

 

 Here is my 'watch list":

 

1) Ascendas REIT

2)  CapitaLand

3)  DBS

4)  Jardine C&C

5)  OCBC

6)  RHT Health Trust

7)  SATS SGX

8)  ST Engineering

9)  UOB

10)  Singapore Medical Venture

11) Viva Industrial Trust

 

Please note that this list will change, as I will do a review of this list periodically.

[2BDriver]

You ask the wrong guy. My current purchases are more towards penny stocks (high growth ones, with greater capital gains but comes with higher risk). So I will make a lot sometimes, and then nothing for a period of time (like now, for the month of May, only collect dividends and sitting on small paper profits).

 

You should ask T2, his is towards yearly consistent return.

 

However, if a market crash is to occur, my investment mode will change (my battle plan which I already shared in this thread before). Going for those big-cap stocks with institutional holdings (my watch-list), and then achieve a large margin of safety when the market recovers. Then I will be pursuing my 4-line signature.

 

Here is my 'watch list":

 

1) Ascendas REIT

2) CapitaLand

3) DBS

4) Jardine C&C

5) OCBC

6) RHT Health Trust

7) SATS SGX

8) ST Engineering

9) UOB

10) Singapore Medical Venture

11) Viva Industrial Trust

 

Please note that this list will change, as I will do a review of this list periodically.

Appreciated greatly, no. 2 3 5 6 are familiar in previous trade.

Thanks again.

[Throttle2]

Out of Tenyawph's watch list, i have some small holdings of Ascendas REIT and ST Eng.

 

Of course currently sitting on capital gains and have collected Dividends for years.

In fact just collected ST Eng div not too long ago.

 

Am also holding Mapletree log trust for years, therefore also sitting on capital gains.

 

Thats all i will say for now.

Good luck to all.

 

Single stocks take up a pretty small portion of my portfolio simply becos i do not advocate single stock picking unless small amount.

Edited May 25, 2017 by Throttle2

[Voodooman]

Out of Tenyawph's watch list, i have some small holdings of Ascendas REIT and ST Eng.

 

Of course currently sitting on capital gains and have collected Dividends for years.

In fact just collected ST Eng div not too long ago.

 

Am also holding Mapletree log trust for years, therefore also sitting on capital gains.

 

Thats all i will say for now.

Good luck to all.

 

Single stocks take up a pretty small portion of my portfolio simply becos i do not advocate single stock picking unless small amount.

I try to keep my holdings to 10 counters or less? Difficult to follow so many. If company has competitive advantage with good yield, it can constitute up to 20% of my portfolio, not very diversified but there are so few really solid companies around that pays good dividend.

 

Thoughts?

[Still2016]

Out of Tenyawph's watch list, i have some small holdings of Ascendas REIT and ST Eng.

 

Of course currently sitting on capital gains and have collected Dividends for years.

In fact just collected ST Eng div not too long ago.

 

Am also holding Mapletree log trust for years, therefore also sitting on capital gains.

 

Thats all i will say for now.

Good luck to all.

 

Single stocks take up a pretty small portion of my portfolio simply becos i do not advocate single stock picking unless small amount.

 

Past-tablewiper

 

which bank are you using? how come no dividend collection fee?

the statement doesn't look like straight from CDP. For my ST Eng I am charged 60.00 an GST 4.20.

 

can share lobang?

 

we are bros here right

[Throttle2]

I try to keep my holdings to 10 counters or less? Difficult to follow so many. If company has competitive advantage with good yield, it can constitute up to 20% of my portfolio, not very diversified but there are so few really solid companies around that pays good dividend.

 

Thoughts?

Thats why i mentioned single stocks are just a small portion.

The key is not to follow and follow and follow.

If you do tht you'll just end up making wrong moves.

 

10 positions is fine but as i mentioned, managing $100k, $1mil and $10mil are totally different.

If $100k, evenly spread each position is only $10k. Even if you swing 90% into one position it is still only $90k. Each time you add a zero behind, it simply becomes tougher to mitigate the risk.

 

I usually hold my positions for years at a stretch, sometimes adding sometimes taking profits , but all the time collecting income.

 

Bros who have spoken to me on a more personal one to one basis will fully understand.

Otherwise, it is impossible to explain on a forum or by writing.

Which is also why i refrain.

 

Cheers

Edited May 25, 2017 by Throttle2

[Throttle2]

Past-tablewiper

 

which bank are you using? how come no dividend collection fee?

the statement doesn't look like straight from CDP. For my ST Eng I am charged 60.00 an GST 4.20.

 

can share lobang?

 

we are bros here right

Sorry bro, this is an open forum and there are somethings that i rather not share.

Am sure you understand

 

I can only say that it is not your usual walk-in kind of bank.

But it iant no big deal either.

 

My CDP holds a mish mash of other stocks which i hardly look at.

some winners some losers but in the bigger scheme of things does not impact my life.

Provides me with dividends which i leave completely untouched.

 

So paiseh, no lobang

[tenyawph]

Will this happen?

 

In the event of a surprise attack launched by the US on North Korea, to topple Kim's regime, the global stock markets will suffer a temporary correction.  Probably in the magnitude of 30% drop in STI, if we draw a comparison with the Iraq invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Irag invasion by the US allies in 1990-1991. 

 

When will this happen (if it happens)?  After President Trump comes back to USA on 27 May from his 1st overseas trips as President.  

 

As stock investors, this is a golden opportunity to take advantage of the big dips that will be suffered by our Bluechip stocks temporarily.  I will follow my battle plan faithfully.   

 

The difficult part is the market timing for entry points.  I will be using technical analysis heavily here, as fundamental analysis will hardly play a part.  I think the China will not respond militarily (i.e. rescue their traditional ally) as the desired outcome of an unified Korea peninsular is not a bad idea, at least from an economic point of view, as long as USA agrees to withdraw its troops stationed there after the entire episode is over.

 

In the meantime, continue to nibble carefully.  Huat ah!