COE Bidding 2nd - Nov 2012

[Steptronic]

Next COE Open Bidding Exercise Starts on 19/11/2012 12:00 hrs, Ends on 21/11/2012 16:00 hrs

 

Quota for A is 396 (Presently @ 77,201$)

Quota for B is 351 (Presently @ 92,400$)

Quota for E is 258 (Presently @ 92,100$)

 

All the best to those bidding this time!

[Deckbuild]

Getting harder and harder to predict now, the cut next year is coming soon, but CAT A break new record which might slow down Jap and Kor made cars. New year coming, everyone also trying to get new car to show off. So many uncertainties now...

[13177]

Getting harder and harder to predict now, the cut next year is coming soon, but CAT A break new record which might slow down Jap and Kor made cars. New year coming, everyone also trying to get new car to show off. So many uncertainties now...

Based on super high COE, not many people can buy car to show off during CNY next year. Unlike last time when COE was super low, driving a brand new car during CNY is a norm.

[Darryn]

I think will drop slightly this round, but zoom next round.

 

Then its going to take a nose dive in 2014.

 

 

[Steptronic]

I think will drop slightly this round, but zoom next round.

 

Then its going to take a nose dive in 2014.

Is your 2014 Nose dive based on massive deregistrations? I am quite doubtful as

 

1. Not all would go for deregistrations (which is a trend now)

2. The growth would be made negative

[Darryn]

Is your 2014 Nose dive based on massive deregistrations? I am quite doubtful as

 

1. Not all would go for deregistrations (which is a trend now)

2. The growth would be made negative

 

Its based on me wanting to buy a new car in the 2014 - 2016 period, and not wanting to pay current COE pricing. SO its going to to fall.

But yeah, I think there will be mass deregistrations as well - not because they want to, but becuase they have to.

 

I also think there will be a policy change, but not sure what it will be.

 

[13177]

Is your 2014 Nose dive based on massive deregistrations? I am quite doubtful as

 

1. Not all would go for deregistrations (which is a trend now)

2. The growth would be made negative

If your car reached 10th year, whether or not the owner buy another car, the current car still need need to deregistrations la. I think now the trend now is no people will renew their COE and try to drive their car until 10th year.

Edited November 19, 2012 by 13177

[Steptronic]

Its based on me wanting to buy a new car in the 2014 - 2016 period, and not wanting to pay current COE pricing. SO its going to to fall.

But yeah, I think there will be mass deregistrations as well - not because they want to, but becuase they have to.

 

I also think there will be a policy change, but not sure what it will be.

You are eying a B Cat car right? WHat would be your accepted COE level for that? (Let me evaluate if you can change in 2014 )

[Steptronic]

If your car reached 10th year, whether or not the owner buy another car, the current car still need need to deregistrations la. I think now the trend now is no people will renew their COE and try to drive their car until 10th year.

I do not know about the number of deregistrations in the last couple of months. But, before that the number of deregistrations were lower because the new car is much higher than renewing COE then!

[Darryn]

You are eying a B Cat car right? WHat would be your accepted COE level for that? (Let me evaluate if you can change in 2014 )

 

I reckon about $40k can tahan

 

[Darryn]

I do not know about the number of deregistrations in the last couple of months. But, before that the number of deregistrations were lower because the new car is much higher than renewing COE then!

 

The reason that deregistrations are so low at the moment is that the car is worth far more in the used car market than deregistering it.

 

People are getting a premium on used cars as the COE is much higher now than when these cars were registered.

 

And also, there are a lot of "young" cars on the road, that don't HAVE to be deregistered.

 

Go and do a search for the breakdown by age for Singapore cars - there are very few that have to be deregistered in this period.

 

[Steptronic]

I reckon about $40k can tahan

My feeling is that the best B could be is around 65k unless or otherwise we have a major disturbance.

[Steptronic]

The reason that deregistrations are so low at the moment is that the car is worth far more in the used car market than deregistering it.

 

People are getting a premium on used cars as the COE is much higher now than when these cars were registered.

 

And also, there are a lot of "young" cars on the road, that don't HAVE to be deregistered.

 

Go and do a search for the breakdown by age for Singapore cars - there are very few that have to be deregistered in this period.

No need to research lah! See below.

 

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/c...g_by_COE%29.pdf

 

Again the argument is back to square one.

 

1. If anyone deregisters at teh end of 10 years, he/she would register a new one, provided he/she can afford

2. If he/she cannot afford to regsiter a new car, he/she would buy a used one and someone else would register a new car to give him/her the used car.

3. Let us say, he/she cannot afford any car, don't you think LTA would jump in to reduce the growth to make it square?

[Google]

Many cars will be going for deregistration in a few years time because you need to cough out 40-90k in cash for COE renewal, there is no loan from bank for it. Anyway, I hope it will go above 100K because when COE really crash, car will be scrap instead of resale as there is no buyer(new cheaper than resale). All extra COE will go back to the system which will push the premium lower, unless the government interferes again.

[Darryn]

No need to research lah! See below.

 

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/c...g_by_COE%29.pdf

 

Again the argument is back to square one.

 

1. If anyone deregisters at teh end of 10 years, he/she would register a new one, provided he/she can afford

2. If he/she cannot afford to regsiter a new car, he/she would buy a used one and someone else would register a new car to give him/her the used car.

3. Let us say, he/she cannot afford any car, don't you think LTA would jump in to reduce the growth to make it square?

 

I think that a number of people will drop out of the market - if you paid say $12k 10 years ago, but current price is $40k, there will be a lot that can't / don't want to afford. So I don't think the 1-for-1 argument holds water.

 

Further I think that having 110 people competing for 100 COE will lead to a lower price than 60 people competing for 50 COE - I don't know how to "prove" this using math, but it seems intuititive that it will be the case.

 

For (3) - well that's the $64,000 question isn't it? Who knows what the LTA will do!

 

[Darryn]

Many cars will be going for deregistration in a few years time because you need to cough out 40-90k in cash for COE renewal, there is no loan from bank for it. Anyway, I hope it will go above 100K because when COE really crash, car will be scrap instead of resale as there is no buyer(new cheaper than resale). All extra COE will go back to the system which will push the premium lower, unless the government interferes again.

 

Who would RENEW COE at $90k? That doesn't make sense - most would buy a new car I think.

 

[13177]

No need to research lah! See below.

 

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/c...g_by_COE%29.pdf

 

Again the argument is back to square one.

 

1. If anyone deregisters at teh end of 10 years, he/she would register a new one, provided he/she can afford

2. If he/she cannot afford to regsiter a new car, he/she would buy a used one and someone else would register a new car to give him/her the used car.

3. Let us say, he/she cannot afford any car, don't you think LTA would jump in to reduce the growth to make it square?

So far all these are just guessing and no one can guarantee what will happen between year 2014-2016 where there are huge number of cars being deregister. So whether COE going to drop, maintain or increase further during that period, i guess we just have to wait and see.

Edited November 19, 2012 by 13177

[Gee]

imho it will continue to shoot thru the roof...

no matter how many scrap, the demand will always be higher.