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LTA Facts and Figure: Age Distribution of Motor Vehicle


Yenyenpark
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Hi the spread sheet crunches the numbers uptill 2011? Did u just use the numbers in prior years and project them forward using the same assumptions for 2014 and 2015?

 

If so the numbers may not be accurate?

 

 

http://www.mytransport.sg/content/mytransp...s_&_Figures

 

Also can see Attached

 

According to the facts and figure, 2015 will have 115,335 COE expired, while 2014 will have 87,554 COE expired.

 

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6th Gear

The increase in COE expiry is insignificant as long as total car population is increasing.

Current car growth rate is still 0.5%?

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http://www.mytransport.sg/content/mytransp...s_&_Figures

 

Also can see Attached

 

According to the facts and figure, 2015 will have 115,335 COE expired, while 2014 will have 87,554 COE expired.

 

That also means there are over 200,000 drivers with cars about to finish COE and actively searching for a new ride. Imagine the rush for COEs. Don't expect them to just stop driving because COE expired.

 

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Turbocharged

That also means there are over 200,000 drivers with cars about to finish COE and actively searching for a new ride. Imagine the rush for COEs. Don't expect them to just stop driving because COE expired.

 

errr... why not?? do you know who much did those people paid for their COE??

 

Some of them bought a COE because it was like 10k. You don't expect this group of people to cough out 60k... some of them will stop driving.

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3rd Gear

你說得一点都没錯,十年前他们買得起,十年後他们未必買得起了。

政府在打压穷人也打压有銭人 。还說這很公平呢。

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errr... why not?? do you know who much did those people paid for their COE??

 

Some of them bought a COE because it was like 10k. You don't expect this group of people to cough out 60k... some of them will stop driving.

 

some of them will also have kids and parents to take care of. unless very high income. where to find the $$ for 40% downpayment?

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Turbocharged

The rules of the game have changed and will definitely change again. And again.

 

This is not a free market system because total number of COE to be put out can be changed anytime by garmen, whatever the number scraped.

 

In the words of fin products - past events are not an indication of future performance.

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Hi the spread sheet crunches the numbers uptill 2011? Did u just use the numbers in prior years and project them forward using the same assumptions for 2014 and 2015?

 

If so the numbers may not be accurate?

 

 

the numbers stop at 2011... but it's not hard to see on based on 2011, those vehicles age from 4-7 years figures are huge at 300,000, average 100,000 per year... these 4-7 years old car should be 6-9 years old car in 2013, or 7-10 years old car in 2014...

 

that's how we can 100% sure more COEs coming....

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ok, thanks, you basically did a "straight line" projection and I guess you can more or less predict the COEs maturing in 2014 and 2015 although I hesitate to say this is 100% accurate.

 

The COE supply is only one side of the equation. we may have more COEs maturing but we also have a much larger population, and many of the COEs who will mature may be extended either via new cars or by extending the old COE for another term

 

Latest round of COE saw a slight rebound so this week we see higher COE and also higher loan rates. Perhaps COE will fall in 2014 and 2015, but I don't think it will fall to the sub $20k range........ :(

 

the numbers stop at 2011... but it's not hard to see on based on 2011, those vehicles age from 4-7 years figures are huge at 300,000, average 100,000 per year... these 4-7 years old car should be 6-9 years old car in 2013, or 7-10 years old car in 2014...

 

that's how we can 100% sure more COEs coming....

 

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The coe quota for 2014 deregistration will only reflect in aug 2014.

 

 

So there is a time lag, the drop in COE will take a while. In fact it may happen that there is a permanent backlog such that the supply is unable to meet the demand. Price will be high then.

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ok, thanks, you basically did a "straight line" projection and I guess you can more or less predict the COEs maturing in 2014 and 2015 although I hesitate to say this is 100% accurate.

 

The COE supply is only one side of the equation. we may have more COEs maturing but we also have a much larger population, and many of the COEs who will mature may be extended either via new cars or by extending the old COE for another term

 

Latest round of COE saw a slight rebound so this week we see higher COE and also higher loan rates. Perhaps COE will fall in 2014 and 2015, but I don't think it will fall to the sub $20k range........ :(

 

 

i only can see more COE quotas coming but, how much will the price of COE, it's really hard to guess.. not to forget, the bank interest may not be as attractive as now in next 3 years.. since US market is recovery, QE is going to stop, and low interest will be a past soon...

 

an increase of 1% will be 5% for 5 years, while an increase of 2% will be increase of 10%.. the interest can push up the installment alot.. so end of day, even cheaper COE, we still see expensive installment... LPPL..

 

that's my 2 cent opinion.

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