Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota

[Toothiewabbit]

if it ever gonna drop to 40-50k....lol

[Powxus]

 

How high is high?

 

Even if my PARF is 60K, I will still renew. I forgo 30K, then buy 70K COE = 100K. Now can barely buy a Vios.

 

Cheapest option will always to renew COE if the car is in good condition. Second hand car depreciation is close to a new car with the only advantage of lower upfront cash.

[Detach8]

 

Cheapest option will always to renew COE if the car is in good condition. Second hand car depreciation is close to a new car with the only advantage of lower upfront cash.

 

For a 10 year old car there are also COE renewal loans, although with higher interest (3.75-4.5% IIRC).

 

Assuming I renew @ 70K, loan 50% for 5 years @ 3.75% = $6,562.50 in interests. Downpayment $35K.

 

If you take a newer PARF car for comparison I don't think the upfront cash is any much lesser.

 

I picked one that's pretty close for comparison:

http://www.sgcarmart.com/used_cars/info.php?ID=436885&DL=1000 $93K for a 2011/Feb (3.5 yrs old)

 

If I buy @ 93K, loan 50% @ 2.28% for 5 years = $5,301 in interests. Downpayment is $46.5K.

 

Yes, interest less, but you down more. And not forgetting the monthly instalments also higher for PARF cars. Some more this car is already 3.5 years old, so that means I only get to drive 1.5 years debt-free towards the end. The COE car on the other hand will give 5 years of debt-free driving and the option of full COE redemption should you decide to scrap the car. I think it is still very worthwhile to consider a renewal, especially if you can do so without a loan.

 

The only other gotcha is annually pay more road tax and rising maintenance costs.

Edited November 12, 2014 by Detach8

[L23]

TS, u very free hor?

Can put in so much effort to do all these predication...

 

Can you put in the same effort to analyse our housing and shares movement too??

[Detach8]

TS, u very free hor?

Can put in so much effort to do all these predication...

 

Can you put in the same effort to analyse our housing and shares movement too??

 

The fact is that car prices are easier to monitor and compute. I do monitor housing and shares too, but that is so much more complicated. Housing got supply, demand, got sale and rental, got different districts and demand, etc.

[Super7]

Airbag is not even mandatory over here, meaning lower OMV, what more ABS or ESP, so that the car buyer can bid more for the COE with the savings from OMV and related!

 

Garmen first before safety.

Money before lives!! This is the "many more good years" we have the promise from them.

 

多赚大钱， 少儿条命， 算得什么， 没事没事

[yo2020]

TS, u very free hor?

Can put in so much effort to do all these predication...

actually, it doesn't take much efforts. I'm jz merely putting in LTA's data into LTA's formulae!!

afterall, I prefer "action" than "talk only". :p

[Forte3737]

TS, u very free hor?

Can put in so much effort to do all these predication...

 

Can you put in the same effort to analyse our housing and shares movement too??

He put in the effort, so let's just appreciate him for that

[Powxus]

 

For a 10 year old car there are also COE renewal loans, although with higher interest (3.75-4.5% IIRC).

 

Assuming I renew @ 70K, loan 50% for 5 years @ 3.75% = $6,562.50 in interests. Downpayment $35K.

 

If you take a newer PARF car for comparison I don't think the upfront cash is any much lesser.

 

I picked one that's pretty close for comparison:

http://www.sgcarmart.com/used_cars/info.php?ID=436885&DL=1000 $93K for a 2011/Feb (3.5 yrs old)

 

If I buy @ 93K, loan 50% @ 2.28% for 5 years = $5,301 in interests. Downpayment is $46.5K.

 

Yes, interest less, but you down more. And not forgetting the monthly instalments also higher for PARF cars. Some more this car is already 3.5 years old, so that means I only get to drive 1.5 years debt-free towards the end. The COE car on the other hand will give 5 years of debt-free driving and the option of full COE redemption should you decide to scrap the car. I think it is still very worthwhile to consider a renewal, especially if you can do so without a loan.

 

The only other gotcha is annually pay more road tax and rising maintenance costs.

 

I should clarify that I am comparing with purchase of new cars. Renew COE will be cheapest and buying second hand only advantage is lower upfront cash.

[Alpha78]

Assuming that the loan rules remain, the factors that affect COE movement should boil down to:

 

1. How many 2005 car owners cannot afford to renew COE or replace with another new car. -> demand drops

 

2. How many COES LTA decides to claw back from this huge pool. -> supply drops.

 

If LTA sticks to the 0.5% growth formula and clawback maintains constant, the supply of COE should increase quite a bit.

 

Overall I'm also betting on a stable price between $40k to $50k. Any lower is a bonus.

[Dafansu]

actually, it doesn't take much efforts. I'm jz merely putting in LTA's data into LTA's formulae!!

afterall, I prefer "action" than "talk only". :p

you from LTA ha

[yo2020]

Assuming that the loan rules remain, the factors that affect COE movement should boil down to:

1. How many 2005 car owners cannot afford to renew COE or replace with another new car. -> demand drops

2. How many COES LTA decides to claw back from this huge pool. -> supply drops.

 

If LTA sticks to the 0.5% growth formula and clawback maintains constant, the supply of COE should increase quite a bit.

Overall I'm also betting on a stable price between $40k to $50k. Any lower is a bonus.

the current claw back will end in Jan 2015.

during the recent announcement last mth, frm Feb 2015:

a) no new claw back (yet).

b) growth reduced to 0.25%.

c) contribution to Cat E reduced frm 15% to 10%.

 

see post #2 for the COE Quota projection for Feb-Apr 2015.

[Forte3737]

The key here is not clawback. It's whether those scrapping their cars will buy new ones

[Caravan]

The key here is not clawback. It's whether those scrapping their cars will buy new ones

 

For sure, many will buy. Then there are new owners too (new graduates, PR, new citizens, new families etc). Working population is about double 10 years ago.

Question is at what price point.

If they can't afford at 60k COE, they will buy 2nd hand or renew or wait. When COE drops to 50k, you get an even larger pool of willing buyers. At 40k, lagi larger.

With so many willing to buy, how far can it drop?

 

With supply lagging demand, at any one time, total car population actually decreases (COE recycled into system is less than impending cars to be scrapped). Some poor chaps are simply forced off the market. Even more are forever waiting at the sidelines.

 

How low can COEs go in this kind of scenario?

[Forte3737]

 

For sure, many will buy. Then there are new owners too (new graduates, PR, new citizens, new families etc). Working population is about double 10 years ago.

Question is at what price point.

If they can't afford at 60k COE, they will buy 2nd hand or renew or wait. When COE drops to 50k, you get an even larger pool of willing buyers. At 40k, lagi larger.

With so many willing to buy, how far can it drop?

 

With supply lagging demand, at any one time, total car population actually decreases (COE recycled into system is less than impending cars to be scrapped). Some poor chaps are simply forced off the market. Even more are forever waiting at the sidelines.

 

How low can COEs go in this kind of scenario?

At most stabilise at 60k for Cat a n 70 k for Cat b

[gasman]

TS yo2020, actually your analysis is brilliant. Everyone & anyone can have their own interpretation on the numbers. It'll be informative if someone can translate the numbers into dollars.

Law of gravity will have to come into effect somewhere from now till 2016.

 

[Detach8]

 

I should clarify that I am comparing with purchase of new cars. Renew COE will be cheapest and buying second hand only advantage is lower upfront cash.

 

I gave a second hand car as an example. It does not necessarily equate to lower upfront cash. It depends on what you replaced it with. Apple to apple, COE renewal can only be compared to a new car because of the 10 year lifespan.

[Powxus]

TS yo2020, actually your analysis is brilliant. Everyone & anyone can have their own interpretation on the numbers. It'll be informative if someone can translate the numbers into dollars.

Law of gravity will have to come into effect somewhere from now till 2016.

 

 

To give a fair comparison, must also put in other indicators e.g. Population to COE ratio. Just purely looking at supply is too simplistic

 

I gave a second hand car as an example. It does not necessarily equate to lower upfront cash. It depends on what you replaced it with. Apple to apple, COE renewal can only be compared to a new car because of the 10 year lifespan.

 

Yes, I am referring to new car vs 2nd hand car. Most people buy 2nd hand either because they cannot afford the upfront cash for new cars or they are buying it to wait for the COE to drop further before changing to a new car.