Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota

[merc280v6]

You yawning??? I actually fell asleep and woke up and it's like groundhog day!

[Matrix0405]

 

Everyone is discussing whether should buy car now or not, will COE increase, will the quota reduce, all ????.

 

Just to add some fact to make all more confuse, there is many theory in this MCF, you make your own assumption base on all this theory.

 

 

Fact 1- The number of COE renew have since for CAT-A and CAT B

 

2016/06 2,464 /649

2016/07 979 / 146

2016/08 882/ 130

016/09 371/ 44

2016/10  975 / 121

 

https://www.lta.gov....evalidation.pdf

 

Fact 2 - Then umber of De-reg car- CAT A and CAT B

 

2016 (Jun)  4,064 2,712

2016 (Jul) 4,244 2,652

2016 (Aug) 4,027 2,666

2016 (Sep) 3,798 2756

2016 (Oct) 4,475 2,875

2016 (Nov) 4,463 3,115 

 

https://www.lta.gov....eg_by_Quota.pdf

 

So my conclusion from the above fact for OCT and NOV, (short of one month, but should be almost the same) we should expert the quota to increase for the next quarter (CAT- A should be back to around 2000). Haha, anyone one to comment on this. 

 

So will COE increase in the next few month? Right time to go in now or wait?

So many ????  Haha

 

 

Cat B going to crash. A lot more CAT B coming (compared to A) . Towkay businesses are down. No Uber in B.

[Wt_know]

CAT B lulian dropping in 2017 Q1?

[Blueray]

More motorists opting to renew their COEs

 

 

More motorists are shelving plans for a new car, opting to renew the certificates of entitlement (COEs) instead when their cars hit the 10-year mark.

 

Industry observers say this is down to a variety of factors, including high COE prices and the uncertain economic climate.

 

In the first 10 months of this year, owners renewed the COEs for 24,050 cars, according to figures provided by the Land Transport Authority yesterday.

 

 

That is about one in four (27.2 per cent) of the 88,357 cars due to be deregistered and eligible for COE revalidation.

 

.....

 

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/more-motorists-opting-to-renew-their-coes

 

 

Edited December 21, 2016 by Blueray

[therock]

This is the new factor... COE renewal.. The number of available COEs may be less than expected, which is why I feel that the COE will remain in the 45-55k range across all categories..

[merc280v6]

This will only force the future COE quota release to be cut back some more.

Supply short = support base for even higher (>&50K) COE premiums to come!

[Ct3833]

This is the new factor... COE renewal.. The number of available COEs may be less than expected, which is why I feel that the COE will remain in the 45-55k range across all categories..

the article refers to YTD renewal. If you look at the monthly rate, mar, apr, may and jun alone took up more than 50% of the YTD renewal, that was when POPs  were  below 50k.   Jul onwards the renewal went back to below 1,000 units. While renewal is still high , the last few months are not too high considering  the total scrap car volume.

I also think that COE in 2017 should be between 40k to 50k. more likely mid 40k.  If more retrenchment, low 40k, if government pull back COE allocation. low 50k. 

[Winningeleven]

The benchmark is 50k. 

 

Below 45k. renew

Between 45k to 47k can renew

Between 47k to 49k can consider renew

Above 49k better not...(Buy new car better)

 

[merc280v6]

The benchmark is 50k.

 

Below 45k. renew

Between 45k to 47k can renew

Between 47k to 49k can consider renew

Above 49k better not...(Buy new car better)

 

Whose benchmark? Yours, I suppose

[13177]

More motorists opting to renew their COEs

 

 

More motorists are shelving plans for a new car, opting to renew the certificates of entitlement (COEs) instead when their cars hit the 10-year mark.

 

Industry observers say this is down to a variety of factors, including high COE prices and the uncertain economic climate.

 

In the first 10 months of this year, owners renewed the COEs for 24,050 cars, according to figures provided by the Land Transport Authority yesterday.

 

 

That is about one in four (27.2 per cent) of the 88,357 cars due to be deregistered and eligible for COE revalidation.

 

.....

 

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/more-motorists-opting-to-renew-their-coes

Think most renewed for 5 years only which i think 5 years passes very fast de.

[Octopus]

The benchmark is 50k. 

 

Below 45k. renew

Between 45k to 47k can renew

Between 47k to 49k can consider renew

Above 49k better not...(Buy new car better)

 

 

For me if COE stays high I would renew, if drops below to my acceptable level I would buy new car.

[Mkl22]

unlikely for LTA to hold back COEs. it has been shown that some market forces in play have redistributed coe in the bumper years of 2016 to 2021 with the 5year renewals.

[Blueray]

Think most renewed for 5 years only which i think 5 years passes very fast de.

 

Yes, I reckon around 90% are renewing 5 years, based on the info on onemotoring.

[13177]

For me if COE stays high I would renew, if drops below to my acceptable level I would buy new car.

If coe stays high, you also renew high lo.

[inlinesix]

The number of vehicles has not been dropping since Apr 2016.  We will looking at another round of COE cut.

 

Not forgetting Hui Ge SAID car lite.

 

My guess is no of vehicles will drop to 900k some days.

M06-Vehs_by_Type Nov 16.pdf

[Ivan_06]

Where are yoyo and limxxxx who said Coe will drop alot

Edited December 22, 2016 by Ivan_06

[jcchia]

For me if COE stays high I would renew, if drops below to my acceptable level I would buy new car.

I shared the same idea too ...............

[Tohto]

Where are yoyo and limxxxx who said Coe will drop alot

 

I think no one can predict that so many owners re-new their COE and Uber/Grab taking up so many new COE.