Lightbringer 6th Gear August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 Just wanted to look around to see how many folks are aware of the actual dismal performance of our Q2 GDP growth, which contracted by 4.7% on an annualized q-on-q basis? It's quite interesting looking at local media coverage of the Q2 GDP statistics, and foreign media coverage (i.e. BBC, Reuters, Bloomberg). Something that really stands out is how the local media headlines and emphasis is on the nominal y-on-y 1.8% GROWTH in GDP, with the actual negative contraction of 4.7% relegated to one or two sentence buried in the middle of the report. Whereas for foreign coverage, the emphasis is on annualised contraction of 4.7% in GDP. To put this into context, SG hasn't experienced such a sharp contraction in GDP on a quarterly annualised basis since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Around my own circles, the non-finance or non-economics trained individuals didn't really have a clue that the economy just hit a hard landing and we are staring right into the abyss of quite a deep recession that is close approaching. Pretty much why explains why most people here are so tied up in debating on COE fluctuations and hypotheticals everyday :) See examples below. Local and official sources https://www.enterpriseone.gov.sg/en/News/2015/July/150714%20Singapores%20GDP%20Rose%20By%201pt7percent%20On%20Year%20In%20Q2%202015.aspx http://www.singstat.gov.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/news/press_releases/advgdp2q2015.pdf http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-economy-grew/1982450.html Foreign sources: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/14/singapore-economy-gdp-idUSL3N0ZQ34K20150714 http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/13/singapore-2q-gdp-dropped-46-on-quarter-while-08-rise-expected.html ↡ Advertisement 17 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lala81 Hypersonic August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 China is in recession, we'll probably be in recession next year. 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albeniz Turbocharged August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 China devaluing its currency drastically, recent stock market crashes - signs of bad things coming. 6 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lala81 Hypersonic August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 (edited) China devaluing its currency drastically, recent stock market crashes - signs of bad things coming. Good time to buy car! HUAT AH! Oh crap, i bought this year liao Edited August 23, 2015 by Lala81 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightbringer 6th Gear August 23, 2015 Author Share August 23, 2015 Next year? From the look of things, Singapore will probably be in a technical recession by Q4. And there will be no Big Bro Mao or Big Bro Sam to pick up the pieces and boost growth by then. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lala81 Hypersonic August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 Next year? From the look of things, Singapore will probably be in a technical recession by Q4. And there will be no Big Bro Mao or Big Bro Sam to pick up the pieces and boost growth by then. Yes you're right. The sampan will have to ride the waves then. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightbringer 6th Gear August 23, 2015 Author Share August 23, 2015 Anyway, would be good if participants in this thread can indicate if their impression of Q2 GDP performance was 1.8% growth or 4.7% contraction. Good to understand the effects of framing the news on the perception of the masses. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lala81 Hypersonic August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 (edited) Anyway, would be good if participants in this thread can indicate if their impression of Q2 GDP performance was 1.8% growth or 4.7% contraction. Good to understand the effects of framing the news on the perception of the masses. I knew it was a contraction when i read the news earlier on, but didn't notice it was 4.7%. But i may have read bloomberg instead of reading the CNA report (can't remember). The CNA article definitely didn't frame it correctly Edited August 23, 2015 by Lala81 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Count-Bracula Twincharged August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 Good time to buy car! HUAT AH! Oh crap, i bought this year liao Good time to buy durians! Hoot ah! 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icedbs Turbocharged August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 I knew it was a contraction when i read the news earlier on, but didn't notice it was 4.7%. But i may have read bloomberg instead of reading the CNA report (can't remember). The CNA article definitely didn't frame it correctly I didn't read any papers. I only read charts. And STI ain't pretty on the weekly charts since late May with the big money getting out since then. That tells the truth because the charts doesn't lie. 7 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lala81 Hypersonic August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 I didn't read any papers. I only read charts. And STI ain't pretty on the weekly charts since late May with the big money getting out since then. That tells the truth because the charts doesn't lie. My trader friend said the same last night. My lawyer friend said currently not much corporate law work going around. All only existing deals ongoing. No new ones. So it's time to hunker down and secure the hatches. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ktglfc Hypersonic August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 China is in recession, we'll probably be in recession next year. We are in correction, and it is a BIG correction now... 50-50 on recession at this moment... but there are lots of signals that bear is prowling on the streets.... Let's see whether Bull can charge away the bear or not... 7 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman888 Moderator August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 It has shown sign in Q1 when we see slow down in retail rental, in Q2 some less prime location malls started to see vacant units. if such scene hit retail in Singapore mean it has been here for a while. Actually there was a short interview and analysis by a NUS professor on channel 8 two weeks ago after they announced the GDP numbers. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman888 Moderator August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 Good time to buy durians! Hoot ah! End of season liao lah Anyway, would be good if participants in this thread can indicate if their impression of Q2 GDP performance was 1.8% growth or 4.7% contraction. Good to understand the effects of framing the news on the perception of the masses. However, the professor did warn people to start tighten the belt during the interview. The only consolation is government still have few mega projects going on to keep it moving for next 3-5 years (T4 & T5 are one of them), few mrt line also on the way. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kb27 Supersonic August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 Not enough foreigners, time to import more. 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinobii Hypersonic August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 My impression is 1.8% growth which is really low China and US stocks are not in good shape either, looks like recession is near There have been talks about US increasing interest rates, looks like its gonna hold too 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lotr 6th Gear August 23, 2015 Share August 23, 2015 don't worry,QE4 will come and lift the stock markets!!! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightbringer 6th Gear August 23, 2015 Author Share August 23, 2015 (edited) My impression is 1.8% growth which is really low China and US stocks are not in good shape either, looks like recession is near There have been talks about US increasing interest rates, looks like its gonna hold too If you think growth of 1.8% is low, how about a contraction of 4.7%? Were you aware of this before reading this post? Now that you are aware, consider the importance of actually understanding what you read in the local press instead of swallowing headlines without further thought. don't worry,QE4 will come and lift the stock markets!!! And what collateral will QE4 be based on, pray tell? Unless you were being sarcastic, of course :p Edited August 23, 2015 by Lightbringer ↡ Advertisement 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In NowRelated Discussions
Related Discussions
Ageing and Home Safety - Tech That Detects Falls
Ageing and Home Safety - Tech That Detects Falls
No recession expected in S'pore in 2023, but 'significant' global risks remain: MTI
No recession expected in S'pore in 2023, but 'significant' global risks remain: MTI
Recession of Japan: Good or Bad News To SG?
Recession of Japan: Good or Bad News To SG?
Trip to New York with road trip to Niagara Falls
Trip to New York with road trip to Niagara Falls
How Do You "Lean Burn" For A Year? share your tips for living well but spending less
How Do You "Lean Burn" For A Year? share your tips for living well but spending less
ASEAN economy to slow down in 2nd half of 2022: JCER/Nikkei survey
ASEAN economy to slow down in 2nd half of 2022: JCER/Nikkei survey
"Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini says stocks could plunge another 50% as the US heads towards a severe financial crisis
"Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini says stocks could plunge another 50% as the US heads towards a severe financial crisis
Outlook for post-Covid recovery clouded, recession could hit 'within next 2 years': PM Lee
Outlook for post-Covid recovery clouded, recession could hit 'within next 2 years': PM Lee