2015 Dec, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[yo2020]

 

great to b bck, no place like home n i missed my car!!

projected quota updated for Feb-Apr 2016, unchanged for earlier projection for A & B!!!

 

[Imac]

As usual in for Page 1.

 

COE will be going UP after most, if not all AD/PI cut the selling price of car at weekend. 

 

SE has been telling buyers to book and secure the car now to avoid interest rate hike.

 

There is steady stream of buyers appearing at most showroom over both sat and sun.

[Spring]

As usual in for Page 1.

 

COE will be going UP after most, if not all AD/PI cut the selling price of car at weekend. 

 

SE has been telling buyers to book and secure the car now to avoid interest rate hike.

 

There is steady stream of buyers appearing at most showroom over both sat and sun.

I also think likely up but what's the most important question is whether it goes back to the previous bidding levels ie the batch which was $59,200 for Cat A. If it doesn't go back there then I feel not too bad considering it's year end and pre CNY buying. 

 

Personally for Cat A think it will be $58k+ range but I'm not holding my breadth cos I got it totally wrong last round as I expected an increase but instead it went down!

[Blueray]

A : - $2k

B : - $1k

[Hshs]

Many going oversea during school hoilday.

And even with 3 weeks interval last round.

The demand still not strong.

I predict 99% down. May also go down to year record low.

Then KC buyers will chiong and up again.

 

Cat A - $53,888

Cat B - $58,888

Edited December 21, 2015 by Hshs

[Matrix0405]

Welcome back. Tot you have bought your car and drove off into the sunset. 

anw, same as blueray, A & B down $2K; no car show, weak backlog & dealers' recent price reduction.

 

[Imac]

Many going oversea during school hoilday.

And even with 3 weeks interval last round.

The demand still not strong.

I predict 99% down. May also go down to year record low.

Then KC buyers will chiong and up again.

 

Cat A - $53,888

Cat B - $58,888

 

Nowaday, 99.99% of COE are bid by AD/PI. Buyers ready doesn't have any said or need to do anything.

 

Buyer can go overseas for holiday, it is the AD/PI doing all the bidding.

 

I don't think it affect anything at all.

[Darryn]

Nowaday, 99.99% of COE are bid by AD/PI. Buyers ready doesn't have any said or need to do anything.

 

Buyer can go overseas for holiday, it is the AD/PI doing all the bidding.

 

I don't think it affect anything at all.

Buyer go overseas means more focussed on holiday than buy car, paperworks not finished, not so much car shopping, not rushing sales exec for delivery -- 

 

So "less urgency" 

[titarium]

Too much imaginary assumption , X'mass sales Up , School Holiday Down , CNY , New year Up ... Don't think it is so immediate.

 

I believe most of the demand should reflect situation 1- 3 months back , any special promotion , showroom crowds , Expo , Scrap car quantity .. etc etc

 

Typical time whole process would take around 1 month(fastest) , condition ex-stock or awaiting clearance . so fastest to have AD/PI placing COE bid would be at least 2 weeks after booking is place , that also if first in line for car delivery.

 

If someone is scarping his/her car , typically will do shopping around 3-6 months in advance , and arrange the new car to arrive around the car scrap timing ( could be 1-2 months or even days in diff) .

 

Promotion would be like Altis price drop season( only 1 weekend promo), the back log is stretch up to 4 months ! 

 

So 1 major factor is look about the supply vs the scrap car numbers , currently should be around SGB - SGE d .

If potential car scrap for the month is 10k , supply is 8-9k the price of COE should be around there or having a slight drop , doubt would be any crash

 

If it is 10k scrap , 5k supply then very likely up .

 

I doubt LTA would allowed supply number exceeding scrap cars number , as COE will plum too much , those who bought car around 90-100k period will change their car. causing the supply and demand imbalance .  

Edited December 21, 2015 by titarium

[Mustank]

 

 

 

  :nosebleed:      

[Ben5266]

 

I doubt LTA would allowed supply number exceeding scrap cars number , as COE will plum too much , those who bought car around 90-100k period will change their car. causing the supply and demand imbalance .  

You are suggesting LTA is manipulating the supply number.... Not based on the actual scrap number.

 

Wait LTA sue you for $100k compensation.

[titarium]

You are suggesting LTA is manipulating the supply number.... Not based on the actual scrap number.

 

Wait LTA sue you for $100k compensation.

 

No la ..... LTA don't control supply number.

 

LTA is regulating the number of cars to be on the road 

 

One thing for sure COE crash or went up too high is not good for many people , COE went up too high : car dealer suffer ( will see show room close down) , COE crash buyer down the road suffer , In the end of formula still Total Numbers of Cars on the Road . If that's the know max, LTA is just to make sure the supply and demand is in balance from year to year, else COE would be very expensive in 1 year and extremely cheap 3 years down the road - not very healthy huh ?!

 

Would really wish that Gov would have surcharge on COE for 2nd and 3rd car (per household) just like Housing Tax - increase for 2nd house , 3rd and so forth.

I believe those can have a 2nd car onward are rich enough to pay for the surcharge , just that this action makes them consider more, this action will allow the middle and lower income group to at least to own a car,  especially those having a family with kids. 

 

*Having a road trip up North with your family is a very special experience , you wouldn't want to miss this in your life time ! 

[Ben5266]

No la ..... LTA don't control supply number.

 

LTA is regulating the number of cars to be on the road 

 

One thing for sure COE crash or went up too high is not good for many people , COE went up too high : car dealer suffer ( will see show room close down) , COE crash buyer down the road suffer , In the end of formula still Total Numbers of Cars on the Road . If that's the know max, LTA is just to make sure the supply and demand is in balance from year to year, else COE would be very expensive in 1 year and extremely cheap 3 years down the road - not very healthy huh ?!

 

Would really wish that Gov would have surcharge on COE for 2nd and 3rd car (per household) just like Housing Tax - increase for 2nd house , 3rd and so forth.

I believe those can have a 2nd car onward are rich enough to pay for the surcharge , just that this action makes them consider more, this action will allow the middle and lower income group to at least to own a car,  especially those having a family with kids. 

 

*Having a road trip up North with your family is a very special experience , you wouldn't want to miss this in your life time ! 

Err.. I don't think LTA is responsible to ensure the supply meets the demand for cars.

They are responsible on the total number of cars on this island.

General income increase or economy downturn... not LTA's problem.

 

Well, those who can afford high COE price, good for them.

They are also informed the possibility of COE going down to $1000.

They made their decision with the assumption that COE will not be that cheap anymore.

It is a gamble. It can turn out, that they are right or wrong.

 

Those who are waiting, cannot afford or not willing to pay that amount is also gambling. 

 

So, best is no intervention. Any policy change now will be accused of helping a side. Be it the "poor" or the "rich".

 

 

disclaimer: I am in the "poor" camp. 

[Roh96]

$60K is the new sweet spot at current market. Below this level, crowd starts to come back, above this level showroom will be empty. So my guess is this round of bidding will be about the same, plus minus at most 1-2K.

 

Looking at the table posted by TS, COE has dropped 10-15K from Jan 2015 to now. Good savings for many late buyers.

[Hshs]

Promotion would be like Altis price drop season( only 1 weekend promo), the back log is stretch up to 4 months !

Unless is low selling model like Mits(may request my Japan to hit certain target). Otherwise AD like BM I don't think they will sacrifice their profit margin to bid high at promotion price. So that why we can see the three weeks interval the demand still weak. They may wait for COE to drop also.

Edited December 21, 2015 by Hshs

[titarium]

Err.. I don't think LTA is responsible to ensure the supply meets the demand for cars.

They are responsible on the total number of cars on this island.

General income increase or economy downturn... not LTA's problem.

 

Well, those who can afford high COE price, good for them.

They are also informed the possibility of COE going down to $1000.

They made their decision with the assumption that COE will not be that cheap anymore.

It is a gamble. It can turn out, that they are right or wrong.

 

Those who are waiting, cannot afford or not willing to pay that amount is also gambling. 

 

So, best is no intervention. Any policy change now will be accused of helping a side. Be it the "poor" or the "rich".

 

 

disclaimer: I am in the "poor" camp. 

 

 

What I am trying to say is - total number of cars is still the final figure , LTA needs to regulate from year to year to put supply and demand in balance , it will still be subjected to market demand. It is just to ensure the winners isn't only from the Rich camp , cause not everyone are born from a wealthy family also to give those who a start up in life to climb to that benchmark. 

 

At times the rich camp is setting a benchmark so high to reach , it could be disappointing at times, not their fault as they are in the capacity to do so, just that they may not actually see or feel the gap , so as a gov I believe there's responsibility to close the gap.  

 

In my opinion Intervention from the Gov is require to ensure there's balance so the poorer camp have a chance to have access to it. Thou car is consider secondary in Singapore Transportation context , but I believe it means alot for a family with children.

 

In the first place setting a Max number of cars on the road is already an intervention, but this intervention is necessary to make sure congestion within this small little Island in controlled.  

[Tohto]

Down $2-3k for Cat A and B...

[titarium]

$60K is the new sweet spot at current market. Below this level, crowd starts to come back, above this level showroom will be empty. So my guess is this round of bidding will be about the same, plus minus at most 1-2K.

 

Looking at the table posted by TS, COE has dropped 10-15K from Jan 2015 to now. Good savings for many late buyers.

 

 

Looks like Cat B is a better choice ,

 

Cat B drop 15k , Quota Double but demand only 1.5x

 

Cat A drop 10 k , Quota 2.3x , demand holding > 2x

 

Supply is catching up on Demand , COE likely will soften till next year .