2016 Recession Year? Gloom and doom 2017!

[Wyfitms]

since you are in this industry, please let me know when that happens

 

at least i can go to the showflats to get free buffet 

 

 

when the time comes, no free buffet also lah

 

developers not stupid u know. buffet doesnt attract real buyers

 

only agents looking to save some lunch money, and agents' friends 

 

however if there is any buffet, i will be sure to inform u

[Wyfitms]

 

By the way, if you wait until showflats are ghost town and nobody buys even at low levels to tell that there is a recession, its too late.....

 

 

 

too late for what? to sell?

 

if only everyone is so clever like u to sell exactly at peak and buy at trough

 

haahaaha

[OmOm]

In 2015 we were moving into the first 10% of the financial crisis. We are now moving into the next 10% as debt-fueled growth in the world grinds to a halt and deleveraging picks up speed. Debt is getting more expensive to obtain and sustain as interest rates start their ascent.

 

China is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea - by choosing to devalue the RMB, they have chosen, in the short term at least, defillibration of their economy over the performance of equities while harbouring hopes (in vain) that billon dollar cash injections can stabilise the bleeding monster that the SSE has become.

 

Emerging markets are tanking - currencies and equities amongst others - without a bottom in sight.

 

Europe is struggling with a stymied economy and negative interest rates that have effectively curtailed the monetary policy tools of the ECB. 

 

The global financial system had already started to unwind a couple of years ago but it has taken a while for the damage to manifest itself in the different aspects of its form. 

 

On the ground, investment spending has been vastly reduced as companies and individuals have begun tightening their belts, creating a cycle of reduction and diminishing performance. The storm is very near and it would not hurt to exercise greater caution in these uncertain times.

 

 

earlier this morning, China market plunges 7% and is suspended for the rest of today... second time already in this week

 

all other markets are badly affected

 

a very bad start to 2016

 

looks like the US interest rate hike and hard landing of China economy slowdown will create a global financial storm in 2016

 

retrenchments and pay freezes, zero bonuses are inevitable during recession

 

the only good thing is.... COE may crash to 20+k or even lower

 

[Wishcumstrue]

PM already warned about slowing economy in 2016 at his new year speech. They know what is going to come.

 

Smart move in getting over with GE in 2015 with all the sweet and honey funding under SG50 budget.

 

This year and next will be pay-back time..

Agreed that sg full of rich people, don't see any recession at all as people still splurge in buying cars and house and many others expensive items like there is no tomorrow. Lol.

 

I don't see that is a problem since rich can effort and pay by cash if need be,

 

My concern is on the middle class who borrow from banks without thinking it through.

[Enye]

Your friend stupid ah?

 

By the way, if you wait until showflats are ghost town and nobody buys even at low levels to tell that there is a recession, its too late.....

 

Muayhahahahahaha

 

Mate your $700k left how much?

 

still paying down my debt

 

my laptop installment plan still have another 2 months to go

 

need to sell car soon.  cannot afford car loan installments already

 

[Jeffc]

retracting back to jan 15 nia still above jan 14

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/06/dbs-ceo-piyush-gupta-tells-wealth-clients-focus-on-yuan-not-pmi.html

[Coltplussport]

u'll know it is a recession when showflats become ghost town and nobody buy even when prices are at lelong levels

 

True story - friend planning to get married, looking around for condo in early 2009. viewed a showflat next to lakeside MRT. Price was $600-700 psf. Asked him wanna buy or not. He said, scared leh, later no job how

 

3 yrs later, he bought one in the same location at $1,200 psf. I asked him he no scared no job in future ah? recessions come and go, sure will experience at least a few downturn in our working life one

 

totally illogical to me. for own stay scared to buy when price is low but full of confidence to buy when price is high. ohwell

 

2009 that one should be Caspian condo lelong time, those bought really huay ah.

[Enye]

In 2015 we were moving into the first 10% of the financial crisis. We are now moving into the next 10% as debt-fueled growth in the world grinds to a halt and deleveraging picks up speed. Debt is getting more expensive to obtain and sustain as interest rates start their ascent.

 

China is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea - by choosing to devalue the RMB, they have chosen, in the short term at least, defillibration of their economy over the performance of equities while harbouring hopes (in vain) that billon dollar cash injections can stabilise the bleeding monster that the SSE has become.

 

Emerging markets are tanking - currencies and equities amongst others - without a bottom in sight.

 

Europe is struggling with a stymied economy and negative interest rates that have effectively curtailed the monetary policy tools of the ECB. 

 

The global financial system had already started to unwind a couple of years ago but it has taken a while for the damage to manifest itself in the different aspects of its form. 

 

On the ground, investment spending has been vastly reduced as companies and individuals have begun tightening their belts, creating a cycle of reduction and diminishing performance. The storm is very near and it would not hurt to exercise greater caution in these uncertain times.

 

this time round what financial tools would be available to central banks to reduce the blowout and jumpstart recovery?

 

if run out of tools then it's going to be real rough

[Wishcumstrue]

George Soros Sees Crisis in Global Markets That Echoes 2008

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/global-markets-at-the-beginning-of-a-crisis-george-soros-says

 

Noted how George made his wealth:

 

Soros, whose hedge-fund firm gained about 20 percent a year on average from 1969 to 2011, has a net worth of about $27.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. He began his career in New York City in the 1950s and gained a reputation for his investing prowess in 1992 by netting $1 billion with a bet that the U.K. would be forced to devalue the pound.

 

 

A leopard can never change its spots.

[Wyfitms]

this time round what financial tools would be available to central banks to reduce the blowout and jumpstart recovery?

 

if run out of tools then it's going to be real rough

 

QE to continue again

 

in bigger dosage

 

that will keep the world going

[OmOm]

this time round what financial tools would be available to central banks to reduce the blowout and jumpstart recovery?

 

if run out of tools then it's going to be real rough

With interest rates already at all time low and bloated central bank balance sheets, conventional tools will no longer be readibly deployable. This crisis will be of a totally different scale in terms of magnitude and duration. It will make the crash of the Great Recession look like a minor technical correction.

[Enye]

not confidence inspiring at all to see such extreme reactions from supposedly professionals

 

 

Shanghai Fund Manager Dumps All Holdings in ‘Insane’ Market

 

 Bloomberg News 

January 7, 2016 — 11:58 AM SGTUpdated on  January 7, 2016 — 12:57 PM SGT

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• CSI 300 declines more than 7%, triggering circuit-breaker

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A Shanghai fund dumped all its holdings as Chinese shares tumbled and triggered a circuit-breaker that halted trading in the world’s second-biggest stock market.

“This is insane,” Chen Gang, chief investment officer at Shanghai Heqi Tongyi Asset Management Co., said in an interview on Thursday. “We were forced to liquidate all our holdings this morning,” said Chen, whose firm manages about 300 million yuan ($45.5 million).

China’s CSI 300 Index plunged 7.2 percent before trading was halted by automatic circuit-breakers for the second time this week, after a weaker-than-estimated yuan fixing fueled concern that slowing economic growth is prompting authorities to guide the currency lower. Many private funds and hedge funds in China have agreements with investors spelling out mandatory liquidation levels if their holdings drop below a certain value.

 

Chinese regulators have imposed a limit on the amount of stock major corporate shareholders can sell as authorities move to curb the nation’s market rout. The CSRC capped the size of stakes that major investors are allowed to sell at 1 percent of a company’s shares for three months effective Jan. 9, the regulator said in a statement on Thursday. The restriction replaces an existing six-month ban on any secondary market stock sales that is due to expire Friday, it said.

‘Couldn’t Be Worse’

Chen, who commented before the CSRC announced its new caps, said he “won’t consider getting back into the market until that overhang is gone and CSRC improves its circuit-breaker system, for instance by extending the 15-minute break to half an hour.”

The Shanghai Heqi Tongyi manager, whose fund started mid-year in 2015, regretted the timing of its launch and said it “couldn’t be worse.” Chen isn’t alone in criticizing the circuit-breaker rule introduced Monday, which many say exacerbates a liquidity squeeze as investors rush for the exits before trading halts kick in. Under the new rule, a drop of 5 percent suspends trading for 15 minutes, while a decline of 7 percent halts the market for the rest of the day.

“A trading break of 15 minutes or even longer wouldn’t ease their nerves or get them a clear picture of the fundamentals,” said Polar Zhang, a Beijing-based analyst at BOC International Holdings Ltd. “On the contrary, it’s draining liquidity as everybody tries to get out of the door before the door is closed. ”

 

If CSRC doesn’t improve the mechanism, Zhang said he expects to cut trading volume by 20 percent.

About 100 stock-focused Chinese private funds have lost more than 10 percent in the most recent month, according to Howbuy Investment Management Co. , which tracks such data. Most of the funds most recently updated numbers in December. Almost 1,300 Chinese hedge funds liquidated amid China’s $5 trillion stock selloff during the summer as the value of their equity holdings fell below mandatory levels agreed with investors, according to Howbuy.

[OmOm]

QE to continue again

 

in bigger dosage

 

that will keep the world going

If only it were that easy - we need to remember that the stock markets do not exist in its own fantasy dimension. The real world economies cannot be continuously pumped up using QE and low interest rates. Prolonged periods of artificially low cost of capital distort markets and it is inevitable that these are followed by extremely violent reversals in financial systems and/or social unrest.

 

A rough analogy would be a factory in which some of the staff work hard while others don't, yet all get paid equal amounts of bonuses. How long can such a system be sustained?

[Jamesc]

earlier this morning, China market plunges 7% and is suspended for the rest of today... second time already in this week Yes 

 

all other markets are badly affected Yes 

 

a very bad start to 2016 Yes 

 

looks like the US interest rate hike and hard landing of China economy slowdown will create a global financial storm in 2016 Yes 

 

retrenchments and pay freezes, zero bonuses are inevitable during recession Yes 

 

the only good thing is.... COE may crash to 20+k or even lower  No - supply can be controlled very easily.

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Jamesc

[Jamesc]

If only it were that easy - we need to remember that the stock markets do not exist in its own fantasy dimension. The real world economies cannot be continuously pumped up using QE and low interest rates. Prolonged periods of artificially low cost of capital distort markets and it is inevitable that these are followed by extremely violent reversals in financial systems and/or social unrest.

 

A rough analogy would be a factory in which some of the staff work hard while others don't, yet all get paid equal amounts of bonuses. How long can such a system be sustained?

 

A very long time. This is happening in my company.

 

 

PS We all know what you mean and I completely agree with you. 

 

But my company really pay almost the same bonus. I only got

 

a slightly smaller bonus than my team mate who really worked

 

damn hard. I even told him its not worth it but he didn't listen to me.

[Fuelsaver]

PM said slow economy only, didn't say recession mah. Lol.

still nvr learn ur lesson? remember when flooding is only ponding?

no wonder many ppl said, "ppl r forgetful"..

Edited January 7, 2016 by Fuelsaver

[Sunny]

A very long time. This is happening in my company.

 

 

PS We all know what you mean and I completely agree with you.

 

But my company really pay almost the same bonus. I only got

 

a slightly smaller bonus than my team mate who really worked

 

damn hard. I even told him its not worth it but he didn't listen to me.

 

U working for Japanese MNC?

Hung Cheng not good, work hard result also not much....intro him come mcf

[Windwaver]

A very long time. This is happening in my company.

 

 

PS We all know what you mean and I completely agree with you. 

 

But my company really pay almost the same bonus. I only got

 

a slightly smaller bonus than my team mate who really worked

 

damn hard. I even told him its not worth it but he didn't listen to me.

 

 

Work HARD no use, work SMART!