Taking the case of the 120K Altis, 2015 = 120K. at 2017, assume that COE is at 30k, New Altis will be at about 90K.
The interesting point is that, for the last two years, the depreciation is about 28K but the new car, assuming that COE is at 30K will depreciate at less then 9k a year for the next 10 years. so, depend on how you think??? Usually, when you scarp a car at 2 years. the dealer will pay you an additional sum of money for the car body, that will help lower the actual depreciation. furthermore alot of these car are not scrap but resell in the market due to the loan curb.
a 2015 Altis will depreciate at about 11k a year + you got new car without worry of maintenance.. etc.
At the end of the day, it depend on how deep is your pocket.
let says buy an Altis now at $120k with COE $68k, ARF $18k (assumed reg in Jul, no more CEVS) n loan 60% at 1.88% for 5 yrs.
2 yrs later in Jul 2017 assuming COE is cheap, then PCOE=$54.4k, PARF=$13.5k, to pay to redeem loan=~$45k.
so, can get bck $23k!! can buy what even if COE is dirt cheap?? top up another $30k to buy a new Altis!!??
total spent over 2yrs = (40% dep)+(instalment for 2 yrs)-$23k = $56k!!!