COE Bidding – 1st Round of November 2016

[myvan9993]

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/COEQuotaAllocationRV.pdf

 

This is the link of how they calculate the quota, 

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M05-Dereg_by_Quota.pdf

 

This is the link showing the de-register of the car of Oct.

 

If Nov and Dec de-register keep the same amount, we should see a increase in quota, why got people say is not possible, it is all in black and white. Let wait and see who is correct in Jan when LTA release the quota.

 

Regards

Goh

 good one...facts will tell.... 

[Ben5266]

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/COEQuotaAllocationRV.pdf

 

This is the link of how they calculate the quota, 

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M05-Dereg_by_Quota.pdf

 

This is the link showing the de-register of the car of Oct.

 

If Nov and Dec de-register keep the same amount, we should see a increase in quota, why got people say is not possible, it is all in black and white. Let wait and see who is correct in Jan when LTA release the quota.

 

Regards

Goh

Some are trying to misled the others....

 

[Matrix0405]

 

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M05-Dereg_by_Quota.pdf

 

This is the link showing the de-register of the car of Oct.

 

I

 

Regards

Goh

 

 

Re-valid Coe for Cat A, drop from peak 2500/m (2016/May) to 500/m (2016/Sept). Why the sudden & drastic change in trend? This also means another 2k 'extra' going back the system per mth, the supply is going to jump by 50%!

[Club21z]

Maybe many renew when below 50k. It's a physological barrier.

[Ken138]

Lta in line w national policy is aiming for a car lite society..

dun think they will release more quotas even if more cars deregister.. moreover, they need more $$ ... cover mrt, lrt replacement etc... :)

Coe might drift downwards but will not plunge ....

[Ct3833]

Re-valid Coe for Cat A, drop from peak 2500/m (2016/May) to 500/m (2016/Sept). Why the sudden & drastic change in trend? This also means another 2k 'extra' going back the system per mth, the supply is going to jump by 50%!

This is due to

1. the higher coe renewal quota premium as compare to the sub $50k before.

2. Recently LTA allows one month delay for coe revalidation, so there is a delay effect.

But i personally think the significantly lower renewal rate is due to point 1 instead of 2.

 

Lets wait for the Oct data instead of guessing around. Somehow the Oct data is not out yet. Hmmmm....

Edited November 16, 2016 by Ct3833

[GohLaiChye]

This is due to

1. the higher coe renewal quota premium as compare to the sub $50k before.

2. Recently LTA allows one month delay for coe revalidation, so there is a delay effect.

But i personally think the significantly lower renewal rate is due to point 1 instead of 2.

 

Lets wait for the Oct data instead of guessing around. Somehow the Oct data is not out yet. Hmmmm....

Haha. good, maybe I should start a topic on this, there are 2 group of people here, one is believe in the fact by LTA(like me) another is that the data is just for show, gov will do something about it( which I don't understand why they say this). Let see who is correct coming Jan, maybe I should do a poll, haha

[Ct3833]

Haha. good, maybe I should start a topic on this, there are 2 group of people here, one is believe in the fact by LTA(like me) another is that the data is just for show, gov will do something about it( which I don't understand why they say this). Let see who is correct coming Jan, maybe I should do a poll, haha

I am the third group, I will only base on data and trend. But I will not  speculate the future as we dont know what the government will do next. They can change policies anytime to protect their income, none of us here have influence.

[myvan9993]

Haha. good, maybe I should start a topic on this, there are 2 group of people here, one is believe in the fact by LTA(like me) another is that the data is just for show, gov will do something about it( which I don't understand why they say this). Let see who is correct coming Jan, maybe I should do a poll, haha

 

same as stock investment...some believe fundamental, some go for technical... 

 

interesting...

[Victor68]

The fact that COE has gone as high as $100k shows the profile of buyers here in Sg.

 

There is this 1st group that will buy regardless of what is the COE cost, they don't need to analyse data.

 

Then you have the middle group that watch and monitor closely trying to catch the lowest point. But when you have problem putting food on the table, watching data itself will do you no good but to shelve the idea first.

 

So that is when the support level drops and everybody disappear. In our context, the 1st group together with a portion of this 2nd group will be able to sustain COE to a certain level. I don't have the figure but I think $20 to $30K is reasonable given our limited number of COE. This only true if the economy don't tail spins into long recession.  Just my guess lah.

[Vinceng]

The fact that COE has gone as high as $100k shows the profile of buyers here in Sg.

 

There is this 1st group that will buy regardless of what is the COE cost, they don't need to analyse data.

 

Then you have the middle group that watch and monitor closely trying to catch the lowest point. But when you have problem putting food on the table, watching data itself will do you no good but to shelve the idea first.

 

So that is when the support level drops and everybody disappear. In our context, the 1st group together with a portion of this 2nd group will be able to sustain COE to a certain level. I don't have the figure but I think $20 to $30K is reasonable given our limited number of COE. This only true if the economy don't tail spins into long recession.  Just my guess lah.

 

But before this even happens, the relevant authorities would have taken action to prevent this from happening, eg. bring back the 0% downpayment, 100% loan scheme. 

[Victor68]

But before this even happens, the relevant authorities would have taken action to prevent this from happening, eg. bring back the 0% downpayment, 100% loan scheme.

if economy so bad liao and you still encourage 100% loan, we will have social problems. even banks wont want this business maybe loanshark haha

[Winningeleven]

Haha. good, maybe I should start a topic on this, there are 2 group of people here, one is believe in the fact by LTA(like me) another is that the data is just for show, gov will do something about it( which I don't understand why they say this). Let see who is correct coming Jan, maybe I should do a poll, haha

 

I am in your side. Whatever info i get is also from the LTA website. We just show the fact more cars are indeed deregistered due to higher PQP now.

 

With more than 100k number of cars due to scrap which have reach 9 years and above. With curent average COE price of $50k. Govt will stand to collect $50000 x 100000 = $5000000000 = 5 billlions just for the piece of paper even with ZERO growth rate.

 

We are not here to argue COE price to drop but rather COE supplies should be constant till mid 2018. 

if economy so bad liao and you still encourage 100% loan, we will have social problems. even banks wont want this business maybe loanshark haha

 

Yalor. is like allowing to buy properties without downpayment with full loan. Some people have this kind of mentality of YOLO without thinking what happen in the future. I bet in my lifetime i wont never ever see 100% car loan . 

[Vinceng]

On hindsight, $40K COE is relalistically possible with the sombre economic outlook, but not unless the car rental companies keep out of the playing field.

 

http://business.asiaone.com/news/technical-recession-looms-singapore

[13177]

On hindsight, $40K COE is relalistically possible with the sombre economic outlook, but not unless the car rental companies keep out of the playing field.

 

http://business.asiaone.com/news/technical-recession-looms-singapore

If economic outlook really no good, think even the car rental companies should not buy so many new cars so aggressively. I bet economic gloomy should hit them as well?! 

[GohLaiChye]

I am in your side. Whatever info i get is also from the LTA website. We just show the fact more cars are indeed deregistered due to higher PQP now.

 

With more than 100k number of cars due to scrap which have reach 9 years and above. With curent average COE price of $50k. Govt will stand to collect $50000 x 100000 = $5000000000 = 5 billlions just for the piece of paper even with ZERO growth rate.

 

We are not here to argue COE price to drop but rather COE supplies should be constant till mid 2018. 

 

Yalor. is like allowing to buy properties without downpayment with full loan. Some people have this kind of mentality of YOLO without thinking what happen in the future. I bet in my lifetime i wont never ever see 100% car loan . 

Hi Brother, thankyou for seconding me on this topic. Yep, I just want to make the point whether the COE supply will increase or less (not predicting whether the price will drop, there is too many other factor to it). Cos alot of discussion is going on that we have reach the peak, from now onward the supply will go down down down, just want know how they get that information, we should base on the fact right? haha.

[Vinceng]

If economic outlook really no good, think even the car rental companies should not buy so many new cars so aggressively. I bet economic gloomy should hit them as well?! 

 

If economy is bad, and COE goes below $50K, these Uber & Grab car rental companies will come into the picture and purchase more cars.

 

As more get retrenched and are unable to find a job, and end up driving as a Private Taxi Driver, it spells a  cash cow for Uber & Grab.

[wdldalian]

If economy is bad, and COE goes below $50K, these Uber & Grab car rental companies will come into the picture and purchase more cars.

 

As more get retrenched and are unable to find a job, and end up driving as a Private Taxi Driver, it spells a  cash cow for Uber & Grab.

 

I just don't understand if many get retrenched, where got money to take taxi or uber/grab?