Moody's rating cut, Fed hike rates in June, July meltdown?

[Yewheng]

 

 

Becareful of what they wish for.. This time round gonna be Bond bubble.. So don't think to put money in bond is a safe bet.. Edited June 10, 2017 by Yewheng

[Yewheng]

Nowhere in sight

 

Economy boosted through sale of arms

Edited June 10, 2017 by Yewheng

[Goldbug]

Becareful of what they wish for.. This time round gonna be Bond bubble.. So don't think to put money in bond is a safe bet..

[Throttle2]

Notice how the "guru" says he predicts an inverted yield curve but stops there.

 

He does not want or dare to predict a market crash.

He only implies an inverted yield curve is usually a sign of recession.

 

So he leaves it open for you to decide whether inverted yield curve will lead to recession.

Becos he knows that Inverted yield curves is also a representation of the demand and supply of liquidity over a scale of time.

 

So he leaves himself a stairway out from the backstage.

[Voodooman]

So next week got rate hike or not?

[Wt_know]

hike or no hike ... spore market cheong !!!

 

So next week got rate hike or not?

[Ct3833]

So next week got rate hike or not?

The April US job rate was quite good, the market is anticipating a 75% possibility of a rate hike. Edited June 11, 2017 by Ct3833

[Wt_know]

The April US job rate was quite good, the market is anticipating a 75% possibility of a rate hike.

which means economy sibei hiong

raising interest is a good thing

we have near zero interest rate for coming to a decade liao

[Angcheek]

which means economy sibei hiong

raising interest is a good thing

we have near zero interest rate for coming to a decade liao

 

can raise salary or not ?

[Mercury1]

Thanks for the updates @Goldbug

[Goldbug]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-idUSKBN1952NA

 

Thu Jun 15, 2017 | 2:13am EDT

 

By Lindsay Dunsmuir and Howard Schneider | WASHINGTON

 

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday for the second time in three months and said it would begin cutting its holdings of bonds and other securities this year, signaling its confidence in a growing U.S. economy and strengthening job market.

 

In lifting its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 1.00 percent to 1.25 percent and forecasting one more hike this year, the Fed seemed to largely brush off a recent run of mixed economic data.

 

cutting it's 4.5 trillion holdings of bonds and other securities will have what impact ahh?

Edited June 16, 2017 by Goldbug

[Goldbug]

Will Anbang be tiongkok's Lehman?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-06-16/xi-risks-china-s-lehman-moment-by-cutting-anbang-adrift

 

 

A sell-off in Anbang-owned stocks shows investors aren't taking the company's denial of a liquidity crunch at face value.Xi is flexing his muscles ahead of the Chinese Communist Party's 19th Congress. Liquidity conditions in China are tight, and the wealth-management taps that the president now wants to turn off slosh into buckets that meet corporate credit demand. He may have taken behind-the-scenes steps to contain the fallout, which could get nasty if irate customers try to put banks on the hook for policies they have sold.In 2014, state-run China Huarong Asset Management Co. took over Credit Equals Gold after the wealth-management product marketed by Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. came close to a default. Cutting Anbang down to size won't be as easy as bailing out a $488 million fund. It could nonetheless be the most powerful signal yet of Xi's determination to deleverage.

[Goldbug]

http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Equities/Detention-of-Anbang-Insurance-boss-hits-China-banking-shares

 

June 14, 2017 4:34 pm JST

Detention of Anbang Insurance boss hits China banking shares

Troubles at main investor send China Merchants Bank, China Minsheng Banking lower

 

KEIICHIRO MORIYASU, NQN staff writer

 

HONG KONG -- Shares in China Merchants Bank and China Minsheng Banking were trading lower in Hong Kong on Wednesday following reports that Wu Xiaohui, chairman of China's Anbang Insurance Group, the banks' largest shareholder, has been detained by the authorities.

 

Reports suggest that the company illicitly took out large bank loans and made foreign acquisitions under Wu's leadership.

 

Investors rushed to unload their holdings in the banks out of concern that Wu's problems could have an impact on those companies. Anbang Insurance has been snapping up companies and properties at home and abroad under Wu, who is also the company's founder.

 

China Merchants Bank saw its share price briefly fall 2.2% from Tuesday to 22.15 Hong Kong dollars. China Minsheng Banking slipped 1.8% from Tuesday to HK$7.63, a three-week low. The banks' shares also fell in Shanghai.

 

According to QUICK-FactSet, Anbang Insurance owns an 11% stake in China Merchants bank and a 5.95% stake in China Minsheng Banking via its asset management company.

[Goldbug]

http://www.barrons.com/articles/anbang-whats-the-impact-on-its-stakes-in-china-merchants-bank-and-minsheng-bank-1497594961

 

 

However, Minsheng Bank, which is rated sell, may not fare as well from Anbang's woes. Here's UOB Kay Hian again:

 

Anbang’s 17.8% stake in Minsheng is held by holding company, Anbang Insurance Group, which subsidiary, Anbang Life, has a solvency ratio of 101.3%. Thus, the risk of Anbang disposing Minsheng shares is higher.

Minsheng has been lax in recognising NPLs with NPLs/90-day overdue loans ratio at only 66.1%. Fraud uncovered at its Hangtianqiao sub-branch in Beijing involving selling of unauthorised WMPs highlights lapses in internal control.

Our target price of HK$7.08 is based on 0.77x 2017F P/B

[Goldbug]

 

 

[Wt_know]

china ghost cities ... ppl say crash

china shadow banking with debt mounting ... ppl say crash lai liao

greece debt crisis ... ppl say crash on the way

if euro break up ... ppl say crash

trump become president ... ppl say crash because no one like him

brexit ... ppl say crash jin jialat liao

oil crash from $100 to $50 ... ppl say crash

fed raise rates .. ppl say jit pai ho say liao

 

from 2010 to 2017 all continue to huat ah!!!

if anbang is china lehman ... all huat until siao?

Edited June 23, 2017 by Wt_know

[Goldbug]

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/22/business/dealbook/china-banking-deals-stocks-fall.html

[Throttle2]

I have avoided China exposure in my portfolio for the longest time.

 

Not becos i dont believe, but becos its pretty volatile.

 

Chinese companies have been issuing / increasing debt non stop the last few years.

I believe the capacity is there, but i also believe that such expansion is never healthy.

 

However, at one point in time, i will put a portion in China, its a must