COE Bidding – 1st Round of November 2017

[kdash]

Statistically it is true and i think like you but with this zero growth news (not really zero growth), it will be a message that SE will keep repeating to buyers when they visit the showroom. 

 

SE will just use whatever news currently available (VES, 0% car growth) to scare customers to commit to buy a car on the spot. 

[xinz]

Assuming many car owners are reading MCF( I know its not).

They will realised that 2020 is a drought year, and COE will likely shoot up the sky from 2020 onwards.

So those with 7-8 years old cars now, will be 'smart' to quickly buy a new car within 2018-19.

This would cause the COE in 2018-2019 to be consistently 'high', with no hope of the fruitart's imaginary crash.

 

Alot of things are better to be kept secret. Don't discuss in forums, so that the general car buyers won't knows the real statistics.

Once they know the drought year from 2020, they will drive up the demand in 2018-2019 prematurely, ensuring the cheap COE that many are waiting for will never happen.

 

Yes, i am selfish myself,

I am hoping to snatch a 'Cheap' COE around CNY18, due to the perceived VES tax that will make some cars more expensive, while AD will mitigate it by bidding $5000-$10000 lower in COE price.

 

Anyway, i just hope very few car buyers are reading MFC.

So that they will irrationally buy now before VES kicks in, then in early 2018 the COE may soften for me to pick up cheaply.

 

Crossing my fingers for $25,000 COE after CNY2018.

Nice alternate view. Take note that those 7-8 years cars that sold off might not have sent to scrap, which means there are buyers. These buyers fill the gap and might still need car when it expires in 2-3 years time. Then another round of buying and selling, which constantly fuel the demand.  

 

I still hope you get your low CNY COE though. Good luck!

[JQ01]

my apologies! i need to make a correction here.  In 2021 there would only be 29k cars due for scrap, but I did not notice there are still about 25k COEs being renewed last year, as most of them are 5 years COEs which will be expired in 2021, these COEs  wuold  add to the 29k COEs for recycling, making about 50k(?) COEs available in 2021 in totality.  So now i am not sure if the 100k COE will happen. My mistake ! 

 

 

This is where i took reference from, help me validate if you have time and are keen. 

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M01-03M-Age.pdf

 

Yes, there is actually quite many data available from LTA since 2015. For example, here is the number of COE renewal :https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/Monthly_COE_Revalidation.pdf.

 

The COE renewal increase when the PQP drops, effectively reducing the number of quota of COE's available.

[therock]

COE does drop during the CNY period, but this coming year will be an odd one.. VES sets in, and if the car OMV remains the same, car prices should go up.

But dealers aren't silly. Some cars with very high VES tax have been taken off the market, eg the Forresters and others like that.

They may come back when COE drops - $25k?

However if the dealers replace them with other cars, then that drop may not occur..

Who knows, maybe there will be a 1.6T version of the Forester or a super stripped version so the OMV drops below 10k?

 

Another example may be the Camry, which is very noncompetitive at 150k now, even though it has a large interior space, and that reliability factor.

Perhaps Toyota will give it two airbags, no electronic stability, or other active safety features etc and bring that OMV down to 15k..

[Galantspeedz]

Camping here for PQP

[andrewyewkc]

However if the dealers replace them with other cars, then that drop may not occur..

Who knows, maybe there will be a 1.6T version of the Forester or a super stripped version so the OMV drops below 10k?

 

Our national strategy is usually "Less is More." This is the direction we are going:

[Lotr8445r]

Assuming many car owners are reading MCF( I know its not).

They will realised that 2020 is a drought year, and COE will likely shoot up the sky from 2020 onwards.

So those with 7-8 years old cars now, will be 'smart' to quickly buy a new car within 2018-19.

This would cause the COE in 2018-2019 to be consistently 'high', with no hope of the fruitart's imaginary crash.

 

Alot of things are better to be kept secret. Don't discuss in forums, so that the general car buyers won't knows the real statistics.

Once they know the drought year from 2020, they will drive up the demand in 2018-2019 prematurely, ensuring the cheap COE that many are waiting for will never happen.

 

Yes, i am selfish myself,

I am hoping to snatch a 'Cheap' COE around CNY18, due to the perceived VES tax that will make some cars more expensive, while AD will mitigate it by bidding $5000-$10000 lower in COE price.

 

Anyway, i just hope very few car buyers are reading MFC.

So that they will irrationally buy now before VES kicks in, then in early 2018 the COE may soften for me to pick up cheaply.

 

Crossing my fingers for $25,000 COE after CNY2018.

Statistically from history, coe is lowest at before CNY. Not after CNY Edited November 7, 2017 by Lotr8445r

[GerryChua]

COE does drop during the CNY period, but this coming year will be an odd one.. VES sets in, and if the car OMV remains the same, car prices should go up.

But dealers aren't silly. Some cars with very high VES tax have been taken off the market, eg the Forresters and others like that.

They may come back when COE drops - $25k?

However if the dealers replace them with other cars, then that drop may not occur..

Who knows, maybe there will be a 1.6T version of the Forester or a super stripped version so the OMV drops below 10k?

 

Another example may be the Camry, which is very noncompetitive at 150k now, even though it has a large interior space, and that reliability factor.

Perhaps Toyota will give it two airbags, no electronic stability, or other active safety features etc and bring that OMV down to 15k..

Both COE and VES collected by government so no benefit for dealer, best they will try to maintain the overall price, or would they decide to do national service to collect more for LTA? 

[therock]

Statistically from history, coe is lowest at before CNY. Not after CNY

Yeah, I got my COE at 6k ten years back :)

[Soya]

COE does drop during the CNY period, but this coming year will be an odd one.. VES sets in, and if the car OMV remains the same, car prices should go up.

But dealers aren't silly. Some cars with very high VES tax have been taken off the market, eg the Forresters and others like that.

They may come back when COE drops - $25k?

However if the dealers replace them with other cars, then that drop may not occur..

Who knows, maybe there will be a 1.6T version of the Forester or a super stripped version so the OMV drops below 10k?

 

Another example may be the Camry, which is very noncompetitive at 150k now, even though it has a large interior space, and that reliability factor.

Perhaps Toyota will give it two airbags, no electronic stability, or other active safety features etc and bring that OMV down to 15k..

For Camry even if zero airbag, no safety belt n onli come w plastic wheel covers oso the unkers will find justifiable reasons to buy...."no airbag better, got cause death b4 u noe"....."no need seat belt since I drive slow n steady"...."no need sport rims, scared ppl steal in JB".....LOL

[GerryChua]

For Camry even if zero airbag, no safety belt n onli come w plastic wheel covers oso the unkers will find justifiable reasons to buy...."no airbag better, got cause death b4 u noe"....."no need seat belt since I drive slow n steady"...."no need sport rims, scared ppl steal in JB".....LOL

Ya, even CRV also 2 airbags and probably that is the the norm. Car thief must be shaking their head...

[Apple-Tree]

Ya ....... they also like to play Big Small with me on COE ...... I won ..... heeeee

 

And they adjusted my OMV ........ Huat ah !!  I like it.

 

 

SE prefer more COE. But they prefer more uncertainty news to lure people to buy car.

VES, zero growth...

 

[QQ2017]

Yes, there is actually quite many data available from LTA since 2015. For example, here is the number of COE renewal :https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/Monthly_COE_Revalidation.pdf.

 

The COE renewal increase when the PQP drops, effectively reducing the number of quota of COE's available.

 

 

Taking the numbers from the two (2) LTA compiled data found in the following documents:

 

1.  REVALIDATION OF CERTIFICATE OF ENTITLEMENT (COE) OF EXISTING VEHICLES

2.  AGE DISTRIBUTION OF MOTOR VEHICLES AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2017

 

 

From the data; 2 important figures can be seen or derived:

 

a.  The estimated average number of revalidation of COE (total for both 5 & 10 yr) is 21% of the total COE available (Year 2015 to 2017)

b.  The estimated average number of 5-Yr revalidation is 77% of the total number of revalidation

 

Based on these 2 derived figures, I extrapolated the estimated projected available COE in the year 2018 to 2022.  This project is valid if the revalidation trend still continue to hold true...

 

Hope my estimation is correct and that I didn't miss out anything major...  

 

Hope this helps whoever making decision whether or not to "cheong" and buy new car or to still wait and sit on the fence...  Hehe...

 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2017 by QQ2017

[Wt_know]

nice chart

so the conclusion is coe will cheong or not?

[andrewyewkc]

nice chart

so the conclusion is coe will cheong or not?

Will cheong in 2020 bro!

[Apple-Tree]

Here is the screen capture on 10/3 and 10/17 about same time.

More accurate than the atomic clock.

 

Players have a particular timeslot to load bid.  

Edited November 7, 2017 by Apple-Tree

[JQ01]

Taking the numbers from the two (2) LTA compiled data found in the following documents:

 

1.  REVALIDATION OF CERTIFICATE OF ENTITLEMENT (COE) OF EXISTING VEHICLES

2.  AGE DISTRIBUTION OF MOTOR VEHICLES AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2017

 

 

From the data; 2 important figures can be seen or derived:

 

a.  The estimated average number of revalidation of COE (total for both 5 & 10 yr) is 21% of the total COE available (Year 2015 to 2017)

b.  The estimated average number of 5-Yr revalidation is 77% of the total number of revalidation

 

Based on these 2 derived figures, I extrapolated the estimated projected available COE in the year 2018 to 2022.  This project is valid if the revalidation trend still continue to hold true...

 

Hope my estimation is correct and that I didn't miss out anything major...  

 

Hope this helps whoever making decision whether or not to "cheong" and buy new car or to still wait and sit on the fence...  Hehe...

 

Good job  but I cannot praise you yet.

 

As an estimate I believe the numbers are about there. This 5yr coe renew effectively balance out the feast famine cycle by itself! Hopefully we won't see $100K coe in 2020s. But I think we will also say bye bye to $10-20K coe.

[Wt_know]

cheong ah !!! no $100k no talk ! ... T2 says one ... lol

Edited November 8, 2017 by Wt_know