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Onenightstd2
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I think COE will drop back to S$1 to S$2k region. For those who not sucessfully this round, just be patient, you will get yr COE next round.

 

The latest bad news for the UK car industry follows thousands of job cuts in recent weeks, including 1,200 at Nissan, 850 at Ford, 600 at Aston Martin and 450 at Jaguar Land Rover.

Edited by Onenightstd2
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Singapore is UNIQUE

Cannot compare to UK, USA or JAPAN car market!

 

Those markets are OPEN.

Singapore market is FIXED.

 

The number of car sales are alwasy FIXED below demand. Gov NOT stupid!

 

There is NO way that car sales are poor in Singapore.

If from April to Sept, there is STILL weak COE price. Rest assured that in Oct there will be another deep deep quota cut to make the supply LOWER than whatever weak demand.

 

The invisible hand will never ever do Singapore in by keeping the COE price at $1.

 

One very super clear example is the COE for motorcycle. Do you guys really think that motorcycle is FLOODING the roads and causing jams? Why is the need to reduce the motorcycle COE this time together with the cars?

The Motorycle population growth is NOT critical to the traffic Jams in Singapore roads. If the gov is SO concerned that motorcycle is jamming up our roads, then they should have BANNED the malaysian motorcycles from coming into Singapore in the first place!

 

In fact if MORE people were to ride motorcycles, one car replaced by one motorcycle (especially those car who only sits one person daily), the road will be less jam!

So I really don't know why the COE for motorcycle is still applicable as it does not really cause jams. Do you think that everyone will go and buy a motorycle and not buy car if the Cat.D is removed and that will cause a huge surge in motorcycle on the road.

Think about it, more motorcycle on the road is a worst problem or more cars on the road.

 

So back to the TS point......the COE is artificially maintained to create demand!

 

 

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Thanks a lot Captain Obvious.

 

I didn't realize the Government implemented the COE system to artificially control the population of motor vehicles. Wow, you must be some sort of genius or visionary to have figured this out and kind enough to share it with we lesser mortals.

 

BTW, you do really the distinction between supply and demand, right?

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Thanks for the compliment.

 

Once the COE is cut in April....OBVIOUSLY the supply going to be limited.

Obviously the price will not be at your $2k level anymore. It will shoot up to >$10k for sure. Just you watch.

 

The demand is strong in Singapore, but the supply is controlled.

 

Take the similar tactics used by housing agents(AD)/developers(LTA)

Just look at Caspien and Alexis.....very strong demand.....supply is limited by the developer slowly releasing in phases to tempt the buyers...each time the psf increase alittle bit to trick buyers to buy now.....just like the COE situation in many AD showroom now....."buy now...COE increasing....buy low now or else will pay more next month"

 

Nuff said.

 

 

Thanks a lot Captain Obvious.

 

I didn't realize the Government implemented the COE system to artificially control the population of motor vehicles. Wow, you must be some sort of genius or visionary to have figured this out and kind enough to share it with we lesser mortals.

 

BTW, you do really the distinction between supply and demand, right?

 

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First of all, supply-side issues are almost always clearly separate from demand-side issues. A shortage of supply doesn't creates demand; nor vice-versa, except in your little fantasy world.

 

Secondly, when demand is significantly more than an artificially-controlled supply, of course prices will be artificially raised as well - lo, the era of 10k or 20k COEs.

 

But right now, where is the demand coming from? Consumer sales of motor vehicles fell -11.7% at constant prices for Nov '07 - Nov '08, and that period hasn't even felt a fraction of the big hit in consumer spending we are currently experiencing. And the worst is yet to come, with more waves of retrenchments and pay cuts/freezes being expected for the next quarter at least.

 

You don't magically create demand by restricting supply, only a moron could ever come up with such a concept. Restricting supply only serves to speed up currently EXISTING demand and spurs it on, but if there is no money to be spent, consumers are fearful and a recession is looming, where is demand going to come from? Your father's pocket?

 

 

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You will be surprised!

In Singapore case its different! I did not make it up.

Go read the asiaone news, one AD said the showroom crowd after the quota-cut announced, was as good as that $2 weekends in Nov08.

 

If you are saying there is low demand, then please justify when did the number of bidders of CatA, B, D & E ever drop by 2 lesser bid vs quota? The demand since the past 15years has being greater than quota!

Even when the gov claimed that the last 2-3 years the car quota was allowed to grow at >8%yearly, there was no monent when demand was lower then supply!

 

By your "speed up existing demand" theory, then there will likely come a time between April and Sept that the number of bidders will be lesser than the quota and therefore COE will be $1 very soon?

 

 

Actually I hope I am wrong toot.....I am waiting for that day to get my $1 COE to register my porshe caymen!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

First of all, supply-side issues are almost always clearly separate from demand-side issues. A shortage of supply doesn't creates demand; nor vice-versa, except in your little fantasy world.

 

You don't magically create demand by restricting supply, only a moron could ever come up with such a concept. Restricting supply only serves to speed up currently EXISTING demand and spurs it on, but if there is no money to be spent, consumers are fearful and a recession is looming, where is demand going to come from? Your father's pocket?

Edited by Leepee
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Thanks for the compliment.

 

Once the COE is cut in April....OBVIOUSLY the supply going to be limited.

Obviously the price will not be at your $2k level anymore. It will shoot up to >$10k for sure. Just you watch.

 

The demand is strong in Singapore, but the supply is controlled.

 

Take the similar tactics used by housing agents(AD)/developers(LTA)

Just look at Caspien and Alexis.....very strong demand.....supply is limited by the developer slowly releasing in phases to tempt the buyers...each time the psf increase alittle bit to trick buyers to buy now.....just like the COE situation in many AD showroom now....."buy now...COE increasing....buy low now or else will pay more next month"

 

Nuff said.

 

Does this mean you are not buying your dream car anymore?

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Neutral Newbie

i agree car price will go up, may not be in terms of coe only.

lesser coe means AD can only sell lesser cars, their major expenses must still be on a longer term eg lease.

they'll have to increase the profit to sustain the cost. Bring in less cars will also prove to be more expensive.

After a while government will need to work with AD on how to manage this gap, eg more weekend cars, new tax for full day car , etc

we'll be a fool to think that the coe is the only way to control cars on the road, it's only one of the tools.

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dude, you have to view demand and supply within the confines of each COE bidding exercise and the distortions that COEs create in the market. when a reduction in supply is announced, demand will rise in the short term because buyers want to get in before dealers adjust car prices accordingly.

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Turbocharged

Hotobd, stop bumping old and outdated threads with your one-liner replies, that is not relevant in current context ...

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Every country has its problems.

 

 

----------------------------------------------

Do one thing at a time, and do well

 

smlj? Drag such an old thread for what? bored is it? [furious][furious]

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Hotobd, stop bumping old and outdated threads with your one-liner replies, that is not relevant in current context ...

 

kids bored after school it seems.. [rolleyes][:p]

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Every country has its problems.

 

 

----------------------------------------------

Do one thing at a time, and do well

 

Agreed. And you're one of the problems.

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