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The Perfect Storm Of The Stock Market?

Fri13th
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Fri13th

Fri13th

1st Gear
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i also tink got malaysia one more wu hua [laugh]

 

the extra expenses can go gamble lol

Yah lor and there wheather always coldcold more shiok....Sg last few days really hot like hell [sweatdrop]

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Fri13th

Fri13th

1st Gear
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no leh, just bought soem dyna again at 615, earlier on, and hope the kep corp oil rig contract can shoot it up by tomorrow

Becareful bro with the continuing slide of oil prices it does not look good for rig builders -_-

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Zangetsu77

Zangetsu77

Clutched

Watch the US market. Dow can't rally forever, and USD can't keep falling. In fact, USD index has rebounded back to the 75+ level, only to soften on positive French data today.

 

The world simply can't function on a zero value US dollar, so at some point, the "value" must be "re-created".

 

It's too easy for Bernanke and Obama to engineer a risk off environment, tank commodities, tank equities, force the market to cover back their USD shorts and create USD strength before embarking justifiably on QEIII. Think about it. Effectively, the market ends up paying USA directly for their liabilities. And the market refers to everyone caught in the unwinding - retail investors, uncles/aunties, hedge funds, institutions, but definitely not the "inner circle".

 

Conspiracy theory. [:p]

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Chemmie78

Chemmie78

Clutched

Watch the US market. Dow can't rally forever, and USD can't keep falling. In fact, USD index has rebounded back to the 75+ level, only to soften on positive French data today.

 

The world simply can't function on a zero value US dollar, so at some point, the "value" must be "re-created".

 

It's too easy for Bernanke and Obama to engineer a risk off environment, tank commodities, tank equities, force the market to cover back their USD shorts and create USD strength before embarking justifiably on QEIII. Think about it. Effectively, the market ends up paying USA directly for their liabilities. And the market refers to everyone caught in the unwinding - retail investors, uncles/aunties, hedge funds, institutions, but definitely not the "inner circle".

 

Conspiracy theory. [:p]

i just liquidated another 40k worth of stock today but still left 100k plus the property so i hope market will continune to rally till end of this year...

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Yewheng

Yewheng

Twincharged

i just liquidated another 40k worth of stock today but still left 100k plus the property so i hope market will continune to rally till end of this year...

 

Very difficult..

 

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Zangetsu77

Zangetsu77

Clutched
(edited)

i just liquidated another 40k worth of stock today but still left 100k plus the property so i hope market will continune to rally till end of this year...

 

Bro... No offence... But HOPE is dangerous in the markets, with or without leverage.

 

I know a nice old gentlemen who had an mid 8 figure net worth, largely in cash. Dude had lotsa HOPE for USD when it started crashing back in the good ole Lehman's days. Dude was "wiped out", and only left with a few paid up landed houses worth i estimate about S$20m in today's dollar value (worth a lot less when he was "wiped out").

 

Imagine when DBS assimilated POSB, the shares hit like a peak of S$28 back in the late 90s on euphoria and retail investors actually bought then. If one HOPEs that one day the equity value will be realized and beat inflation in addition, then they really HOPE long long, like people who cling on to "en-bloc" apartments with the HOPE that they will be able to sell it at their target PSF... Yes they can... but after how long?? S$2000 psf today may be the HDB prices of the future, and if Singapore experiences deflation, S$200 psf may also be possible.

 

Japan in 1990. So much HOPE. Nikkei peaked. Investors, institutions, even SWFs bought billions of USD of land and properties and equities in the 80s, saw it go up several times and then go down forever after that. Even until today, heavyweight financial players opt to choose default and foreclosure as opposed to honoring their real estate commitments in Japan.

 

So, HOPE can be really dangerous. One has to take a view, learn to cut loss, learn to take profits and learn how to manage GREED and FEAR. HOPE is worse than GREED because it implies the irrational loss of FEAR. Your position - you must be comfortable with it, no matter whether market swings up, market swings down, market swings up and down and market is just flat flat flat... So rationalize, take charge, and form a consistent approach. Nobody is always right, but the long term winner is the guy who consistently refines and improves his approach.

 

Just my... 1-cent opinion... [laugh]

Edited by Zangetsu77
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Park88

Park88

1st Gear

Bro... No offence... But HOPE is dangerous in the markets, with or without leverage.

 

I know a nice old gentlemen who had an mid 8 figure net worth, largely in cash. Dude had lotsa HOPE for USD when it started crashing back in the good ole Lehman's days. Dude was "wiped out", and only left with a few paid up landed houses worth i estimate about S$20m in today's dollar value (worth a lot less when he was "wiped out").

 

Imagine when DBS assimilated POSB, the shares hit like a peak of S$28 back in the late 90s on euphoria and retail investors actually bought then. If one HOPEs that one day the equity value will be realized and beat inflation in addition, then they really HOPE long long, like people who cling on to "en-bloc" apartments with the HOPE that they will be able to sell it at their target PSF... Yes they can... but after how long?? S$2000 psf today may be the HDB prices of the future, and if Singapore experiences deflation, S$200 psf may also be possible.

 

Japan in 1990. So much HOPE. Nikkei peaked. Investors, institutions, even SWFs bought billions of USD of land and properties and equities in the 80s, saw it go up several times and then go down forever after that. Even until today, heavyweight financial players opt to choose default and foreclosure as opposed to honoring their real estate commitments in Japan.

 

So, HOPE can be really dangerous. One has to take a view, learn to cut loss, learn to take profits and learn how to manage GREED and FEAR. HOPE is worse than GREED because it implies the irrational loss of FEAR. Your position - you must be comfortable with it, no matter whether market swings up, market swings down, market swings up and down and market is just flat flat flat... So rationalize, take charge, and form a consistent approach. Nobody is always right, but the long term winner is the guy who consistently refines and improves his approach.

 

Just my... 1-cent opinion... [laugh]

 

very well spoken

i am shamefully think that we are in the bull cycle

 

 

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Chemmie78

Chemmie78

Clutched

Bro... No offence... But HOPE is dangerous in the markets, with or without leverage.

 

I know a nice old gentlemen who had an mid 8 figure net worth, largely in cash. Dude had lotsa HOPE for USD when it started crashing back in the good ole Lehman's days. Dude was "wiped out", and only left with a few paid up landed houses worth i estimate about S$20m in today's dollar value (worth a lot less when he was "wiped out").

 

Imagine when DBS assimilated POSB, the shares hit like a peak of S$28 back in the late 90s on euphoria and retail investors actually bought then. If one HOPEs that one day the equity value will be realized and beat inflation in addition, then they really HOPE long long, like people who cling on to "en-bloc" apartments with the HOPE that they will be able to sell it at their target PSF... Yes they can... but after how long?? S$2000 psf today may be the HDB prices of the future, and if Singapore experiences deflation, S$200 psf may also be possible.

 

Japan in 1990. So much HOPE. Nikkei peaked. Investors, institutions, even SWFs bought billions of USD of land and properties and equities in the 80s, saw it go up several times and then go down forever after that. Even until today, heavyweight financial players opt to choose default and foreclosure as opposed to honoring their real estate commitments in Japan.

 

So, HOPE can be really dangerous. One has to take a view, learn to cut loss, learn to take profits and learn how to manage GREED and FEAR. HOPE is worse than GREED because it implies the irrational loss of FEAR. Your position - you must be comfortable with it, no matter whether market swings up, market swings down, market swings up and down and market is just flat flat flat... So rationalize, take charge, and form a consistent approach. Nobody is always right, but the long term winner is the guy who consistently refines and improves his approach.

 

Just my... 1-cent opinion... [laugh]

 

sigh i dun even have 7 digit....you are absolutely right...this is why i am raising cash....but i still believe we are in an economic recovery stage and haven't reach bubble yet....gradually take some profits while not keeping all in cash as it has a negative rate of return now

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Zangetsu77

Zangetsu77

Clutched
(edited)

very well spoken

i am shamefully think that we are in the bull cycle

 

Bro, no shame at all! If you rationalize and you are convinced, then stick with it. I am bearish, but i may be wrong. Each mistake or success irregardless must be a learning experience. If i got it wrong, why? If i got it right, why?

 

I systematically and constantly review my overall position these days, and that's in totality. These days i also review whether it fits into my broader scheme of things and my life.

 

When i was 23 years old, a lot of my peers thought i was mad to invest shortly after the tech bubble burst in 2001. I really didn't have a system then, i had just had gut feel, and when Osama executed 9/11 then, i tell u, my balls really shrank big time and i recalled every single guy/gal who diistinctly told me off, their faces literally flashed in front of my eyes.

 

I still distinctly remember seeing the footage, when i was much younger, leaner and single, at Orchard Cineleisure with my date, seeing those planes crash, seeing the Twin Towers in flame, and it was evening time in Singapore. The next trading day once i could get online, i was selling like a fool, and i think there was some trading halt at some point in time then. At 10am, some of the shares i sold was at their historic cheapest ever. Now that was GREED and FEAR exemplified.

 

If you look back, 9/11 effectively triggered the market bottom then. Back then I had bought TPV Tech bcoz i thought it was a really good company at 40.5 cents average cost. I sold it at 33.5 cents average cost. They did 1:4 stock splits along the way i think, and at it's peak it was effectively like S$8 based on my original holdings per share something in like 2005 or 2006 (they started as no. 2 LCD maker in the world and eventually overtook Samsung). Nevertheless, as shortsighted as i was then i re-entered at 50 cents (humbly swallowed my pride) and sold it around 70 to 80 cents feeling like a king then.

 

But today, they have probably past their peak. So for all investments, there is a definite entry and exit point, and the old school Buffett style (as far as i am concerned) may not work anymore in our high frequency, programmed trading, liquidity driven era (Mebbe if Buffett reads this he'll just roll over laughing).

 

After SARS, i reflected on my mistakes, i bought STI ETF using my CPF monies, sold it in early 2006 and wasn't particularly satisfied. Again lack of patience, excessive GREED. Absolute quantum made like a 5 figure sum in CPF, in relative terms it was good for a 2 year investment, though at the bottom of my heart, i just wanted millions then, so it would never have been enough.

 

During Bird Flu in 2006, i thought Doomsday lai liao!!! Bought STI put warrants thinking market will crash. When it did not, i stubbornly refused to cut loss, just thought that it will happen somehow!! Complete write-off.

 

During Lehman's, short the market again... Made and made until bottom, still cannot identify, just carry on shorting... Became a zero sum game...

 

After that, dis-illusioned and went to buy properties, good ole fashioned... Market rallied surprisingly out of Lehman's, but many a times, stressed, want to sell, but no buyer... Prices just kept going up... Then i realized that the illiquidity is both a blessing and a curse in disguise. Stocks - very liquid, buy high-sell low, easy to make mistakes, but when shyt really hits the fan, can still get out fast.

 

Both my remisiers, one never forgets Asian Financial Crisis, lost everything for 3 years but still recovered as a bungalow staying, 8 figure net worth, full time watch collecting and part time golfing snr exec of a soon-to-be delisted brokerage, one held S$1m overnight thru 9/11, but still recovered. The key thing here is, always left an escape route, an exit strategy. Fundamentally and intrinsically, always live to fight another day...

 

During Euro-zone debt crisis, i whacked OSIM at 69.5 cents when even the company share buyback couldn't support the price at 70 cents. Balls still felt like it was shrinking, i was doing reservist, i called my good fren who was also a retail investor and he just lost his mind... But the best trade to date.

 

One day, i sat down and reflected extensively, and developed my own system to manage myself. Not just on a rational level, but also on an emotional level. A system that i internalize and refine, practically like a way of life.

 

I still make mistakes, but i am increasingly clear on what i do. And i believe it is the clarity and control that will guide you over the years... [;)]

Edited by Zangetsu77
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Zangetsu77

Zangetsu77

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sigh i dun even have 7 digit....you are absolutely right...this is why i am raising cash....but i still believe we are in an economic recovery stage and haven't reach bubble yet....gradually take some profits while not keeping all in cash as it has a negative rate of return now

 

When i was 28 years old, i knew of a British tech boom tycoon who made a few hundred million pounds by the time he was 23 years old. When i was in university, another tech boom beneficiary contemporary of mine had already changed 2 Ferraris, added 1 Lambo and in addition a condo in town (Sentosa didn't "exist" then). Then, i also know of people who only made it big in their 30s, some only made it big in their 40s, some only made it big in their 50s, 60s, 70s etc.....

 

We all have different opportunities, different training, different aptitudes, different exposure in life etc. But u gotta make it work well for u, otherwise at the end of the day, u'd still be left with nothing. Don't bother with other people. Focus on yourself. Envy is a monster. Life is not solely about money. Stick with your approach, and you'd be surprised where you get one day.

 

A lot of the Forbes top pple who stay there don't get there young. Get there quickly, may fall off quickly also. Look at the Japanese last time, now got the Chinese... Buffett still there ya? He's soooo old!!! But he has his own consistent approach, for sure... Bill Gates only focuses on his business and making it work, and he's still there. And when you look at Singapore, it's also no different...

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