The Perfect Storm Of The Stock Market?

[Throttle2]

I would take profits on the ETF and pick up again when market stabilizes. All the fear factors are there - Europe with genuine debt issues, China curbing property price inflation big time, inexplicable heavy sell-offs on Dow Jones, even got major volcanic eruption and earthquake now! Throw in a killer virus outbreak and Osama detonating a nuke somewhere, and there'll probably be a movie 2 years from now called "2010".

 

Think there'll be continued selling in stocks, STI will probably break below the 2780 resistance quite easily this wk and after that no clue, what the next level of resistance is. My personal take is that this may be the start of a double dip. If Europe goes bust and Chinese real estate decouples, America's fragile economic recovery will be hit, and then you got another major depression. The unwinding of events will probably play out over the next 3 to 4 months.

 

 

Opportunity beckons again.

 

 

[Zangetsu77]

Opportunity beckons again.

 

Yeah, agreed

[Albeniz]

I was looking at CNA flashing newsline. The German economist says that euro may reach parity with US dollar.

And that is scary because I am holding to some euros. [sweat]

 

[Throttle2]

I was looking at CNA flashing newsline. The German economist says that euro may reach parity with US dollar.

And that is scary because I am holding to some euros. [sweat]

 

 

whats so scary, it's not like we've not seen EURO under the Dollar before......

[Sungod666]

I am a buyer. Scaremongers never make it big in life unless they inherit. Look at the facts before you. Economic Data in major economies are recovering. If you are already in the market, just stay still. if you have spare cash, using DJIA as a signal, buy into SG market when Dow hit 10k and below.

[Mazdaowner]

Yes, I agree, no one left anything for us either, and we had to work our way up from scratch.

I'm not really NOT leaving my children anything, my antique toy collecti0on would suffice

all three of them, IF they sell them off. I cannot bring myself to sell any of my collection,

not the monetary worth, the joy of looking ta them is priceless.

 

Me too. We work so hard, so we should pamper ourself. Save some and enjoy some. No point keep thinking of generate more $, at the end your kids will inherit them. Since it is easy $ for them chances are they will squander them.

 

[Acemundo]

hehe i still remember i throw caution to the wind by investing in gold.

 

i told a financial planner who's bugging me to invest units with her for months. told her i am going into gold she told me what for, gold at historical high. i told her that I had done the fundamental analysis of gold and is confident of it. plus, if one only based on historical high to determine whether is too high or too low, then new records will never be broken. someone must break the record right? she was at a loss how to reply to me.

 

then when I went to uob to buy more units, the counter staff looks sceptical when I was buying more units and ask me why.....i told her it will go up again. just remember the doubtful look on her face.

[BITURBO]

shucks...missed buying blue chips by 1 day! markets up so much today...

[Suede88]

comon .. it is EURO we r talking about .. the currency 2nd to the dollars .. will germany have let any of the PIIGS drag them down ..

 

there will be new things to worry about soon enough .. but there is only 1 direction for the world economy now .. led by the US .. and that is UP ..

 

remember .. 0% interest rate .. only when they raise it NEXT year do we have to think of taking any profit.. right now .. just load on any dips ..

 

[BITURBO]

yep, on drips...based on today's result...still might have chance to see dips again...hope can buy at my target price...

[Billyone]

 

 

While there has been a great deal of attention paid over the last few

months to the nascent recovery in the United States, the ongoing Greek

sovereign debt crisis in Europe is a reminder that there are often

long-tail effects to recessions and global economic shake-ups.

 

 

How Did This Happen?

What has happened is the result of a long series of bad decisions. The

establishment of the euro effectively gave Greece access to a huge amount

of relatively cheap debt, but Greek officials did not put the proceeds of

this debt to good use. Since the euro came into existence, Greece's ratio

of debt to GDP has stayed above 100% and the country ran persistent

deficits in excess of 10% of GDP. Ultimately, when investors (and,

belatedly, the ratings agencies) realized that the emperor had no clothes,

rates on Greek debt began to creep up, and matters culminated in the S&P

downgrade of Greek debt to "junk" status on April 27 of 2010.

 

 

What will happen next will not be pretty. A bailout package will give

Greece up to 110 billion euros in total. That is intended to buy Greece

time to get their house in order, but that means a tremendous austerity

program - including major cuts in public wages and pensions and a host of

new taxes.

 

 

Can Countries Go Bankrupt?

Sovereign nations like Greece cannot go bankrupt. What happens instead is a

process called sovereign default whereby a nation renegotiates the terms of

the debt (including the interest rate, the length of the loan, the schedule

of repayments, etc.) and/or replaces it with new debt. This process

generally leaves the original creditors with about 25-50% of the amount

they originally loaned.

 

 

Greece is not the first country to contemplate default; there were a

breathtaking number of sovereign defaults across the world in the 1980s.

More recently, we saw Russia default on its internal debt (GKOs) in 1998

and Argentina default on its external debt in 2002. In most cases, the

causes were similar - too much debt relative to GDP, debt spent on

nonproductive assets (or outright stolen through corruption) and

persistently high deficits as a percentage of GDP. (For more, see

Government Bailouts Around The World.)

 

 

What Does This Mean?

For Greece, this crisis is going to mean a major change in the standard of

living over the next few years, with wages and economic activity likely to

be down for a number of years. Ultimately, the hope is that Greece can

reduce its deficits and debts to a more sustainable level and rejoin the

public financial markets. In plain(er) English, Greece is basically going

to be in a severe recession (if not depression) for several years.

 

 

Europe is clearly going to see the biggest short-term effects from this

Greek meltdown, as roughly 70% of Greece's sovereign debt is held outside

the country - much of that in France and Germany. That, in turn, is going

to significant hurt those banks holding the debt and could force them to

raise capital and curtail lending to rebuild their solvency. As that

happens, there will be less money to loan to companies and individuals. The

bottom line? Less growth across the continent.

 

 

On a more positive, if cynical, note, the bailout being offered to Greece

should help protect the banks. In effect, the governments of Europe are

choosing to have all of their taxpayers chip in to keep its banks and large

financial institutions on firmer footing. So, while this is called a "Greek

bailout", it is in effect just as much about bailing out the foolish

lenders in France and Germany.

 

 

There is also a very real risk of follow-on effects. Spain, Portugal,

Ireland and Italy also have high debt burdens and deficits. Unlike Greece,

which is about 2% of the Eurozone economy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland make

up a far larger component, and many of these nations have banks with

significant international lending operations. If Spain falls into crisis,

the entire credit system in Europe could grind to a halt and that would

send tremors throughout the world's financial system.

 

 

What About Us?

In the U.S., the direct effect of the Greek crisis is not likely to be all

that large, as American banks have not loaned that much to Greece and

American institutions do not hold large amounts of Greek debt. That said,

if the troubles in Greece lead to a slowdown across Europe, it could choke

off our economic recovery as Europe as a whole is a major trading partner.

 

 

The Worst Case

For the Greeks, the worst case could be even worse, and may include ongoing

unrest and government instability. Also part of the worst case scenario is

a messy collapse of the euro and a Europe-wide credit freeze. Should that

happen, growth in Europe would almost certainly drop and there would be

instability across the system. Given that professional investors hate

instability more than anything, it would be fair to assume that equity

markets would plunge, rates would increase, and gold would probably shine.

(To learn more, see When And Why Did The Euro Make Its Debut As A Currency?

)

 

 

What You Can Do

Unfortunately, there is little for the average investor to do about any of

this. Owning some gold could offer a hedge to a truly dire scenario.

 

 

Clearly, this crisis serves as another reminder about the benefits of

diversification. If you own a Greek bond, you are in trouble. But if you

own a diversified portfolio of bonds (through an ETF or mutual fund), then

the impact is not so severe. Speaking even more broadly, there is little to

do but continue to make sound investing decisions - diversify your

portfolio, buy quality assets, and make sure that no one mistake would be

devastating.

 

 

Going Forward

Beyond that, we should all hope for the best and perhaps consider

pressuring our Congressmen and political leaders to run our country

according to sound fiscal principles. (To learn more about the Greek

crisis, check out EU Economics? It's All Greek To Me!)

[Zangetsu77]

comon .. it is EURO we r talking about .. the currency 2nd to the dollars .. will germany have let any of the PIIGS drag them down ..

 

there will be new things to worry about soon enough .. but there is only 1 direction for the world economy now .. led by the US .. and that is UP ..

 

remember .. 0% interest rate .. only when they raise it NEXT year do we have to think of taking any profit.. right now .. just load on any dips ..

 

Short term sentiment is still bearish, though i agree that the solution for 2010 is to print more money. Doesn't matter how much debt these countries got, they just print more money and then lend more money to each other. Interest rates stay low, and liquidity remains easy. Equities run along with assets.

 

You may make money from equities and switch in properties and make more, or you may make money from properties and switch into equities and make more, or you may choose to dabble in gold or precious metals or other commodities. Doesn't matter.

 

This is like Daytona, everytime you pass the finishing line, you get time extension, but time eventually runs out and it just gets more challenging. Personally, my take is that when China economy cools down, this may result in a global de-leveraging and a major depression. Is it early next year, late next year, 2012, 2013 or 2014? Dunno... Tis a game of musical chairs... Music may have become somewhat softer currently, but i think it'll continue to play on for this year and amplify itself.

 

Key to success in the game of musical chairs and Daytona as well is to stay nimble.

[Suede88]

indeed bro ..

 

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Bank of America Corp. (BAC) joined Wall Street competitors J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) in recording no trading days that resulted in a net loss during the first quarter.

 

Bank of America disclosed the figures in its recent quarterly regulatory filing. The data are more evidence that trading desks at Wall Street firms are enjoying some of their best days ever.

 

Bank of America bolstered its trading operations at the end of 2008, when it purchased rival Merrill Lynch & Co. Then, Merrill was taking on hefty losses and Bank of America sought out a costly second round of help from the U.S. Treasury to back-stop Merrill's losses.

 

Now the Charlotte bank's merged trading operations are in the black.

 

Bank of America's traders produced daily profits of at least $25 million during 95% of the days in the first quarter, the bank said in the filing. In the fourth quarter, by contrast, Bank of America posted net gains during 86% of trading days, and only about half the quarter's trading days resulted in profits of at least $25 million.

 

In recent days Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan reported that they didn't lose money at the end of any trading day in the first quarter.

 

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-ne...r#ixzz0neXzeBJB

 

if they keep making $ so easily .. wonder who is losing? the retail investors?

[Ethene]

Anyone into US markets.

I'm monitoring and deciding on US Pharmaceutical shares. They looks more stable.

Anyone have takes or experience on this?

[Optix]

Anyone into US markets.

I'm monitoring and deciding on US Pharmaceutical shares. They looks more stable.

Anyone have takes or experience on this?

 

I am trading in the US markets.

 

The pharmaceutical are 'quite' stable becuase they are not so 'sexy' to big bankers I suppose. The returns are very low. There are some speculative counters (example: ANX) that can be very volatile. Its nearly impossible to the time these counters.

 

If you have a certain appetite for risk and you are not worried about losing a portion of your investment, financial are the way to go.

 

Problem is you have stay awake in the night to monitor the day trades.

[Fri13th]

After the past week of weak and bearish market movements and continued weakness in the Euro....i got a really bad feeling overall for the market now and also my boss who got good connection with bankers and major property company bosses has sold all his stocks and properties since last month and hanging on to 100% cash.....last year during feb he was also the one who ask me close my eyes and just pick any shares and buy will comfirm let me make money which i follow and true enough i made quite many folds of the amount which i put in and now i am definately following his advise to be also 100% cash stand 1 side see show/world cup first....

 

My 2cents of advise for Bros still in the market....better get out or risk losing ur shirts!!

 

[Throttle2]

After the past week of weak and bearish market movements and continued weakness in the Euro....i got a really bad feeling overall for the market now and also my boss who got good connection with bankers and major property company bosses has sold all his stocks and properties since last month and hanging on to 100% cash.....last year during feb he was also the one who ask me close my eyes and just pick any shares and buy will comfirm let me make money which i follow and true enough i made quite many folds of the amount which i put in and now i am definately following his advise to be also 100% cash stand 1 side see show/world cup first....

 

My 2cents of advise for Bros still in the market....better get out or risk losing ur shirts!!

 

 

as usual when market and sentiments are down and prices are cheap, people rush to sell

when sentiments are riding high and prices are up, people rush to buy...

 

haha, whats new.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Fri13th]

U are spot on bro thats why my strategy in trading stocks is to buy in fear and sell on greed and so far i am a happy man but its easier said than done to maintain this method of trading as it really require discipline and balls of steel to go against the market.....still remeber last year March during reservist i was telling my NS buddies i was actively buying stocks and they all say i crazy as everyone is selling at all cost but i am buying than this year during reservist in march also i told them i starting to dump all my shares they also say i crazy market is chionging and i am selling? Happy trading everyone and good Luck!

 

Huat ARR