Reality of COE Effect on Car Population Control

[Civicblade]

Many in this forum or elsewhere (as long as you live in Singapore) are discussing about the spike in COE premium over the last one year.

 

I aim to provide a reality check on COE and car population control and well as how public transport can play a part in the overall transportation system and cost.

 

First the COE demand and supply situation.

 

Please look to year 2009 March bidding. There were 3682 COE available (for month of March) for 1.6l and below cars. COE price was $3864 and $3162. That was the time whereby all in Singapore who wants to buy a car and think that they can afford it and willing to pay for it at the OMV plus taxes plus dealer profit plus $3800 did so. That was the time whereby almost all demand were fulfilled by supply.

 

Coming back to present, if we were to satisfy all demand for new cars (1.6l and below) in current economic climate, the COE available numbers could by more than double that of March 2009, that works out to be ~8000 new 1.6l and below cars a month.

 

Compared to the 1300 available COEs available for december, this works out to 6700 new car owners want to be who cannot fufill their dreams of owning a new car. This is how COE works.

 

How do you get the 1300 who are willing to pay $50k for a COE to work with the 6700 who doesn't want to pay $50k to work together so that somehow a newly defined batch (be it through balloting or means testing or lottery) of 1300 gets their COE at $1? You will need to issue 8000 new COEs to enable all 8000 new cars owners wannabe to get their COE at $1.

 

Think about it, COE works by limiting the number of new cars allowed on the roads according to what the LTA wants. It taxes the car owners for wanting a new car. This method works for car population control. We should however be asking how we can maximise the returns on the taxes that we collect from new car owners. How to make public transport better such that those who are deprived of car ownership because being less well-off or less willing to pay taxes do not suffer disproportionate disadvantage from not owning private transportation.

 

Secondly, the train system can play a very deciding role in determining the private car ownership and usage situation in Singapore.

 

I think this thread title is a good platform for everyone to discuss about car ownership or the lack thereof.

 

This is my second posting in this thread regarding how our train infrastructure should be before motorist starts giving up their private transport on weekdays.

 

The public transport frequency, comfortable load carrying capacity and coverage (trains) must be improved on tremendously.

 

COE can be as high as $200 or $500K. Singaporeans will not care if the public transport is affordable, comfortable, punctual and has extensive coverage.

 

Taxes from COE should be used to build public transport infrastructure to a truly first class status.

 

The circle line is 8 years late. The east to north line (Changi/Pasir Ris/Tampines to Yishun/Woodlands) should have been completed in 2009. The second east west line should have started work in should be completed in 2012. The second North-South line should be completed in 2014. A third North-South Circle line should be in planning and work to start in 2012.

 

Jurong Island and Tuas should have been served by the MRT line in 2007. Palau Bin and Tekong MRT station should have been completed in October 2010.

 

Train carrying capacity can be increased by a double deck MRT track that runs express service from major MRT stations, example Tampines to Tuas stopping only at Tampines, Payer Lebar, Raffles Place, Buona Vista, Jurong East, Boonlay and Tuas. The double deck MRT system should have been ready in 2010.

 

Planned tracked should have 4 track rail to enable express trains.

 

LRT should serve every MRT station to bring commuters to within 300m of 95% of residential high-rise and 500m of offices and other residential buildings.

 

A system like the above serves a population of 6.5million comfortable with the desirable effect of such extensive rail system is that most Singaporeans would prefer to travel on public transport and the number of cars on the road can be drastically reduced through even further cuts on issuance of COE.

Edited December 28, 2010 by Civicblade

[Nightsky]

The circle line is 8 years late. The east to north line (Changi/Pasir Ris/Tampines to Yishun/Woodlands) should have been completed in 2009. The second east west line should have started work in should be completed in 2012. The second North-South line should be completed in 2014. A third North-South Circle line should be in planning and work to start in 2012.

 

Jurong Island and Tuas should have been served by the MRT line in 2007. Palau Bin and Tekong MRT station should have been completed in October 2010.

 

Train carrying capacity can be increased by a double deck MRT track that runs express service from major MRT stations, example Tampines to Tuas stopping only at Tampines, Payer Lebar, Raffles Place, Buona Vista, Jurong East, Boonlay and Tuas. The double deck MRT system should have been ready in 2010.

 

Planned tracked should have 4 track rail to enable express trains.

 

LRT should serve every MRT station to bring commuters to within 300m of 95% of residential high-rise and 500m of offices and other residential buildings.

 

Are you Captain Hindsight?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY_oKve-bH0

Edited December 28, 2010 by Nightsky

[Civicblade]

I am not captain. Just call me Mr Hindsight.

 

To the many who started off without a personal transport, be it in your student days or early in your career, you must have had experience of using the MRT system.

 

It was such a great improvement over the bus system when it was introduced for the east-west and north-east line in late 80s early 90s. Trains were punctual and comfortable.

 

I believe many like me think like Mr Hindsight. The country should have expanded the MRT system's reach, coverage and connectivity way back.

 

The decision makers may have their reason to think that spinal core train network (limited to the busiest route) served by fan like bus system works best for Singapore then but the reality is, a complete train system that covers almost everywhere is better suited for Singapore's geographic and population.

 

Our government used to be the most pragmatic in the world. This could also account for the percieved "delay" in spreading rail coverage. The government hesitates to build something unless proven by facts and data that the returns justify the spending.

 

Singapore may be different now, looking at its willingness to host F1 and allow Casinos. Let's hope the policy and decision makers bet on a more extensive rail coverage for our country. This is the way to move the people and move Singapore forward.

[Kiadaw]

Are you Captain Hindsight?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY_oKve-bH0

[laugh] Funny as hell.

 

[Jpcc]

Are you Captain Hindsight?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY_oKve-bH0

I suggest not to trivialize TS's objective. I find the post well thought out n has various good points. Thanks for raising the few ideas. Ruling party should not claim credit but look at your points n honor the IP. :)

 

Double deck may be a bit challenging leh, EW line need to go into tunnel n as such has height limit?

[Ghostami]

Anyone watched the series living cities Singapore on Discovery. One of the guy mention, Singapore wants to increase its population from 4million to 6 million, the way he speaks is also very skeptical of how fast our rate of increase is. Which is already showing when we started openning up the flood gates a few years ago.

 

I agree with TS, alot of the current completed projects should had been completed when they decide to open up the flood gates.

[Civicblade]

It is my guess that the ministry in charged of population over-estimated the ability of Singapore's infrastructure to support 5million people.

 

The government says that Singapore should prefer to deal with problems of being successful, over-populaton, inflation, high property prices rather than dealing with the opposite.

 

It is clear that the people in charge of planning knew about the side effect of a large influx of foreigners but prefer to let "success" come first and deal with the "problems" later.

 

Back in 2000, productivity was stagnant or even declining. If Singapore's population were to remain as it was, the GDP numbers is going to come down. Declining GDP is taboo to the government. It is something that they do not want to deal with, it is like telling Singaporeans that Singapore is sliding backwards. This single-minded obsession with GDP numbers prompted them to think of a quick fix, that is to import large number of foreigners to make up for the GDP numbers and casting productivity aside for the next 8 years. But this quick fix of importing cheap labour is like a addictive drug. So effective was it in propping up the GDP figures and providing cheap labour to businesses that the government is now having its hand tied to do otherwise.

 

Businesses in Singapore are so used to cheap labour that the push for improving productivity just doesn't sell well. With businesses pressuring the government to keep importing cheap labour and the government's willingness to oblige, no amount of training or re-training is going to help with productivity improvement.

 

If you were to look at countries with the highest productivity, USA and Japan, it is precisely the lack of cheap labour that pushes individuals, government and businesses to be more productivity for the same number of hours worked.

 

Coming back to the transportation issue, the government then (2000) must have believe that Singapore's infracture is operating at 80% capacity (maybe after their field trip to Tokyo) and at that time and that it is wise to maximise the carrying capacity of the then current infrastructure. The scholars and the ministers were looking purely at numbers, perhaps the figures from SMRT on what is the maximum carry capacity of a train car or what is the average speed of cars on certain expressway at certain times of the day.

 

Perhaps no one raised the issue that when dealing with human beings, it is not the exact numbers that matters. It is the relativity of experience. If you had to experience having elbow space during peak hours to having just palm space, or from being able to smell just your own body lotion fragrance to having to endure the combined body odour of 4 person around you while taking the train; to the decision makers, it could just be about maximising capacity usage, but to the people on the ground. It is definitely a reduction in the quality of life.

 

 

 

 

[Unfair]

Before opening the floodgates, shouldn't the operator know the limits of the existing dam or river ???

[Ladykillerz]

i reckon that most of us know that without planning ahead and just filled this small land with 5millions of population is a no no.

now we can see the effects.

however, i am also not surprised to see in the near future that the total population will continue to go upwards.

sad but perhaps true.

[Chrispie]

a friend went to berlin to work for BMW. There is a fleet of cars in a garage at the staff's disposal and you know what, the cars were hardly used. Their transport system is so efficient and comfortable that most of the ppl, even the top brass, find it more convenient to go public.

 

I didnt go to berlin before, but if that is true, their system must be really fantastic... can you imagine forgoing a 6 series and you rather take the bus?

[Grix17]

a friend went to berlin to work for BMW. There is a fleet of cars in a garage at the staff's disposal and you know what, the cars were hardly used. Their transport system is so efficient and comfortable that most of the ppl, even the top brass, find it more convenient to go public.

 

I didnt go to berlin before, but if that is true, their system must be really fantastic... can you imagine forgoing a 6 series and you rather take the bus?

 

It's true in many cities, but here our MRT can only carry a limited number of commuters.

We have to compare to cities with the same population density as ours.

5 million plus on a tiny footprint of 700+ sq km.

Anyone knows which cities have similar pop density and has solved the transport problem?

[Tom_kkh]

have u guys ever been asked by MINDEF to update yr new address after they cant find u during the last mobilization, even though you have informed the police eons ago?

 

the government departments don work as a team!!!!!!!! they don share information!!!!period!!!!!!!!

 

a good eg, a friend was jailed for drink driving, mindef sent him a letter to his home telling him he is gonna be charge for MIA for reservist, how irony is that?

 

when he was "out", Mindef demand to see proof?!?!?! kns cant they just call prison department??????????

 

the toilet cleaner or minister of LTA/MRT/SBS will never be informed by whoever opens the flood gates to welcome foreigners, on how many they will be "welcoming"!

 

they are politician, u think they don play politics among one another to score gummy bear's point????

Edited December 30, 2010 by Tom_kkh

[Meepok87]

The reality of high COE price + rising HDB prices will only fuel the level of dissatisfaction that is already evident for ppl who is in their 20s.

 

Imagine u are just a normal working class, and you have the intention to get married, start a family. Look at the prices of HDB, how much loan do you have to take? how long? What are we actually living for? Just to pay off our debt to have a roof over our head?

 

High car prices, i know car is a need not a want. Alot of you guys will say, this is to curb traffic jam, no money dun drive lor. But this is a country, not an organisation. We are humans, we have feelings, and most of the time we are irrational.

 

The main problem is the problem of overcrowding, bus mrt so crowded. Who wants to take? But do we have a choice?

[Kiadaw]

We should follow Netherland, & make land of of the sea. Also half of Netherlands land mass are once lakes or part of the chilly North Sea. & they start doing this before even James Watts invented the stream engine.

 

The red region are below sea level.

 

& there are too many golf courses in Singapore. @#%&^*.

 

 

[Ghostami]

I kinda think that the direction now is not to grow the country population numbers fast but how to make use of current numbers to boost output like the other developed nations. If everything also want fast to archive taking short cuts, the end is definately going to be an ugly one.

[Duckduck]

AGree on MRT no enough, just like floods, PUB & MRT both need to be more aggressive in numbers forecast. If they can paint stupid olympic logos on the road which was TOTALLY POINTLESS & overrun budget by mega millions, they can easily speed up more MRT stations.

[Chiongster]

MCF is my fav forum due to people like TS who makes such good points in his post

 

I think one key factor to improve public transport frequency is for the relevant authority to really embrace and believe that problems do exist.

 

I still recall a few months ago, the CEO of SMRT saying that there is no overcrowding problems on the MRT. Just take a look at Jurong East MRT, they removed all the stone seats on the platform and put signs, saying 'Please keep clear of escalator landing area' as there is hardly space to stand in peak hours!

 

Plus, the argument for SMRT to stay profitable for the sake of its shareholders is an overdue argument. If being profitable is to create overcrowding problems and like TS says, 'not compensating for people who are outpriced for a COE', then SMRT is not serving its core purpose at all

 

My 2 cents

 

Many in this forum or elsewhere (as long as you live in Singapore) are discussing about the spike in COE premium over the last one year.

 

I aim to provide a reality check on COE and car population control and well as how public transport can play a part in the overall transportation system and cost.

 

First the COE demand and supply situation.

 

Please look to year 2009 March bidding. There were 3682 COE available (for month of March) for 1.6l and below cars. COE price was $3864 and $3162. That was the time whereby all in Singapore who wants to buy a car and think that they can afford it and willing to pay for it at the OMV plus taxes plus dealer profit plus $3800 did so. That was the time whereby almost all demand were fulfilled by supply.

 

Coming back to present, if we were to satisfy all demand for new cars (1.6l and below) in current economic climate, the COE available numbers could by more than double that of March 2009, that works out to be ~8000 new 1.6l and below cars a month.

 

Compared to the 1300 available COEs available for december, this works out to 6700 new car owners want to be who cannot fufill their dreams of owning a new car. This is how COE works.

 

How do you get the 1300 who are willing to pay $50k for a COE to work with the 6700 who doesn't want to pay $50k to work together so that somehow a newly defined batch (be it through balloting or means testing or lottery) of 1300 gets their COE at $1? You will need to issue 8000 new COEs to enable all 8000 new cars owners wannabe to get their COE at $1.

 

Think about it, COE works by limiting the number of new cars allowed on the roads according to what the LTA wants. It taxes the car owners for wanting a new car. This method works for car population control. We should however be asking how we can maximise the returns on the taxes that we collect from new car owners. How to make public transport better such that those who are deprived of car ownership because being less well-off or less willing to pay taxes do not suffer disproportionate disadvantage from not owning private transportation.

 

Secondly, the train system can play a very deciding role in determining the private car ownership and usage situation in Singapore.

 

I think this thread title is a good platform for everyone to discuss about car ownership or the lack thereof.

 

This is my second posting in this thread regarding how our train infrastructure should be before motorist starts giving up their private transport on weekdays.

 

The public transport frequency, comfortable load carrying capacity and coverage (trains) must be improved on tremendously.

 

COE can be as high as $200 or $500K. Singaporeans will not care if the public transport is affordable, comfortable, punctual and has extensive coverage.

 

Taxes from COE should be used to build public transport infrastructure to a truly first class status.

 

The circle line is 8 years late. The east to north line (Changi/Pasir Ris/Tampines to Yishun/Woodlands) should have been completed in 2009. The second east west line should have started work in should be completed in 2012. The second North-South line should be completed in 2014. A third North-South Circle line should be in planning and work to start in 2012.

 

Jurong Island and Tuas should have been served by the MRT line in 2007. Palau Bin and Tekong MRT station should have been completed in October 2010.

 

Train carrying capacity can be increased by a double deck MRT track that runs express service from major MRT stations, example Tampines to Tuas stopping only at Tampines, Payer Lebar, Raffles Place, Buona Vista, Jurong East, Boonlay and Tuas. The double deck MRT system should have been ready in 2010.

 

Planned tracked should have 4 track rail to enable express trains.

 

LRT should serve every MRT station to bring commuters to within 300m of 95% of residential high-rise and 500m of offices and other residential buildings.

 

A system like the above serves a population of 6.5million comfortable with the desirable effect of such extensive rail system is that most Singaporeans would prefer to travel on public transport and the number of cars on the road can be drastically reduced through even further cuts on issuance of COE.

 

[Ben5266]

We should follow Netherland, & make land of of the sea. Also half of Netherlands land mass are once lakes or part of the chilly North Sea. & they start doing this before even James Watts invented the stream engine.

 

The red region are below sea level.

 

 

& there are too many golf courses in Singapore. @#%&^*.

The golf courses, if I am not wrong are temporary. Those are newly reclaimed land and while waiting for settlement, instead if leave it unused, we use it as golf course. Same goes to the Changi race circuit. After 10-20 years, govt will take them back for next development.

Those who bought condo with golf course and sea view, it won't be as nice 10 years later.