WP will not win in Aljunied...sad to say that...

[LoverofCar]

Here is my take why WP will not win in Aljunied. This is an assumption so no right no wrong...

 

2006 number of voters: 145,099 (total votes casted: 133,436) - Opps win 43.91% of votes or 58,593 votes.

2011 number of voter: 143,101 (Assume total vote cast is same: 133,000)

 

number of voters move out of Aljunied by redrawing GRC: 29,000. The idea is to move the pro opposition block of people to another wards. Assuming 20,000 is pro opps and 9,000 is pro MIW. This mean the remaining pro WP votes in Aljunied had been reduced to ~38,000 votes.

 

Assuming incoming 9000 voters from the 29,000 voters imported from other wards is still pro WP (AMK and TPG so those are pro MIW originally but no choice to move to Aljunied). So in total, there will be 9,000 + 38,000 =47,000 votes that will vote for WP in 2011.

 

With ~47,000 out of 133,000 will probably remain loyal to WP, it translate to only 35%. The remaining 16% have to be earned by WP. If LTK can swing 5 % from the pro MIW, Chen S M can swing 2 % (he is still new) and Pritam Singh (he is still new) can swing 2% of pro MIW vote. Slyvia is not first time candidate there so let say she can swing another 2% votes. That will make up 11% more votes. So in total, WP will get ~46% of the total votes in 2011. So looking at it, WP victory is very unlikely.

 

The above is basd on my simple calculation. No right or wrong method but looking at the maths, WP's victory is quite low and hard. Of course, I hope Aljunied voters can proof me wrong but frankly, I have no confident in Singaporean that will be willing to go all out to vote for the national rather than self interest.

 

Again, I really hope I can eat my words as I want WP to win.....But I just hope you guys don't place too much hope on Aljunied. PP and Hougang can be won every election is because the voters had not been moved from wards to wards.

[Chilli_crab]

I do not see your logic for the various vote swing percentages (5%, 2% etc). How did you arrive at those figure?

 

So, don't worry. You are wrong.

[Duckduck]

bro everyone knows is 50/50 fights lah... ure 46% is close enuff to 50%...

 

pple r more interested in bishan toa payoh & holland bkt timah..

 

the sad part about this election is that one of the main problems whihc is housing cost, & MBT will escape scot free. MBT shld be the one out of parliament, not GY.... >:(

[Acemundo]

that's my fear too and rationale too.

 

but i was hoping that the composition of voters may change, especialy more younger eligible voters who are tech savvy and less emotionally attached to the ruling party

[Aimnfire]

i said it before

your vote is secret

but your vote cluster/area is not

 

so when they redrawn the grc, most probably they know which cluster have the higest opp vote

thus they remove those cluster into another grc

[Tayspiderx]

I beg to differ bro, was at Hougang Heartland Mall yst, its under Aljunied GRC! So far up north and still under Aljunied?! There seems to be a shift to break Hougang SMC apart and absorb into Aljunied GRC, which I believe would be the critical DOWNFALL of P8P GRC system.

[Mdfaz]

Bedok north also part of aljunied i think.. very weird eh the boundary. And aljunied is 50-50, most prob go down to the wire. As of now, i feel the likelihood of 86-1 (hougang should still fall to WP) on 8 may is more likely than anything else.

[Vince69]

Here is my take why WP will not win in Aljunied. This is an assumption so no right no wrong...

 

2006 number of voters: 145,099 (total votes casted: 133,436) - Opps win 43.91% of votes or 58,593 votes.

2011 number of voter: 143,101 (Assume total vote cast is same: 133,000)

 

number of voters move out of Aljunied by redrawing GRC: 29,000. The idea is to move the pro opposition block of people to another wards. Assuming 20,000 is pro opps and 9,000 is pro MIW. This mean the remaining pro WP votes in Aljunied had been reduced to ~38,000 votes.

 

Assuming incoming 9000 voters from the 29,000 voters imported from other wards is still pro WP (AMK and TPG so those are pro MIW originally but no choice to move to Aljunied). So in total, there will be 9,000 + 38,000 =47,000 votes that will vote for WP in 2011.

 

With ~47,000 out of 133,000 will probably remain loyal to WP, it translate to only 35%. The remaining 16% have to be earned by WP. If LTK can swing 5 % from the pro MIW, Chen S M can swing 2 % (he is still new) and Pritam Singh (he is still new) can swing 2% of pro MIW vote. Slyvia is not first time candidate there so let say she can swing another 2% votes. That will make up 11% more votes. So in total, WP will get ~46% of the total votes in 2011. So looking at it, WP victory is very unlikely.

 

The above is basd on my simple calculation. No right or wrong method but looking at the maths, WP's victory is quite low and hard. Of course, I hope Aljunied voters can proof me wrong but frankly, I have no confident in Singaporean that will be willing to go all out to vote for the national rather than self interest.

 

Again, I really hope I can eat my words as I want WP to win.....But I just hope you guys don't place too much hope on Aljunied. PP and Hougang can be won every election is because the voters had not been moved from wards to wards.

 

interesting figures... hmmm wonder what will these 20K+ from Aljunied do in AMK

[Icedbs]

Here is my take why WP will not win in Aljunied. This is an assumption so no right no wrong...

 

2006 number of voters: 145,099 (total votes casted: 133,436) - Opps win 43.91% of votes or 58,593 votes.

2011 number of voter: 143,101 (Assume total vote cast is same: 133,000)

 

number of voters move out of Aljunied by redrawing GRC: 29,000. The idea is to move the pro opposition block of people to another wards. Assuming 20,000 is pro opps and 9,000 is pro MIW. This mean the remaining pro WP votes in Aljunied had been reduced to ~38,000 votes.

 

Assuming incoming 9000 voters from the 29,000 voters imported from other wards is still pro WP (AMK and TPG so those are pro MIW originally but no choice to move to Aljunied). So in total, there will be 9,000 + 38,000 =47,000 votes that will vote for WP in 2011.

 

With ~47,000 out of 133,000 will probably remain loyal to WP, it translate to only 35%. The remaining 16% have to be earned by WP. If LTK can swing 5 % from the pro MIW, Chen S M can swing 2 % (he is still new) and Pritam Singh (he is still new) can swing 2% of pro MIW vote. Slyvia is not first time candidate there so let say she can swing another 2% votes. That will make up 11% more votes. So in total, WP will get ~46% of the total votes in 2011. So looking at it, WP victory is very unlikely.

 

The above is basd on my simple calculation. No right or wrong method but looking at the maths, WP's victory is quite low and hard. Of course, I hope Aljunied voters can proof me wrong but frankly, I have no confident in Singaporean that will be willing to go all out to vote for the national rather than self interest.

 

Again, I really hope I can eat my words as I want WP to win.....But I just hope you guys don't place too much hope on Aljunied. PP and Hougang can be won every election is because the voters had not been moved from wards to wards.

 

Good analysis, but there is one important factor that you have not taken into consideration.

 

That is the age group.

 

The age profile of the voters (and the proportion of them between young and old) is different now compared to 5 years ago.

 

If you can also analyse the age group, and make certain logical assumption on that, your analysis will be far more complete.

Edited May 6, 2011 by Icedbs

[Picanto]

history will not be made.

[Tonyng]

 

We should all fast forward to results night.

 

 

How do you feel if PAP gets all seats and no oppo?

 

How do you feel if PAP loses one or two GRC?

 

 

The answer is obvious.

 

Tell all your undecided friends.

[Yahgo22]

Here is my take why WP will not win in Aljunied. This is an assumption so no right no wrong...

 

2006 number of voters: 145,099 (total votes casted: 133,436) - Opps win 43.91% of votes or 58,593 votes.

2011 number of voter: 143,101 (Assume total vote cast is same: 133,000)

 

number of voters move out of Aljunied by redrawing GRC: 29,000. The idea is to move the pro opposition block of people to another wards. Assuming 20,000 is pro opps and 9,000 is pro MIW. This mean the remaining pro WP votes in Aljunied had been reduced to ~38,000 votes.

 

Assuming incoming 9000 voters from the 29,000 voters imported from other wards is still pro WP (AMK and TPG so those are pro MIW originally but no choice to move to Aljunied). So in total, there will be 9,000 + 38,000 =47,000 votes that will vote for WP in 2011.

 

With ~47,000 out of 133,000 will probably remain loyal to WP, it translate to only 35%. The remaining 16% have to be earned by WP. If LTK can swing 5 % from the pro MIW, Chen S M can swing 2 % (he is still new) and Pritam Singh (he is still new) can swing 2% of pro MIW vote. Slyvia is not first time candidate there so let say she can swing another 2% votes. That will make up 11% more votes. So in total, WP will get ~46% of the total votes in 2011. So looking at it, WP victory is very unlikely.

 

The above is basd on my simple calculation. No right or wrong method but looking at the maths, WP's victory is quite low and hard. Of course, I hope Aljunied voters can proof me wrong but frankly, I have no confident in Singaporean that will be willing to go all out to vote for the national rather than self interest.

 

Again, I really hope I can eat my words as I want WP to win.....But I just hope you guys don't place too much hope on Aljunied. PP and Hougang can be won every election is because the voters had not been moved from wards to wards.

 

 

 

You never take into account the swing from those Pro PAP for the many screw-ups that happened in SG.

 

High cost of living - 3%

Mas Selamat - 3 %

YOG - 3%

Prataman salary - 3%

Old man threat - 3%

HDB prices - 3%

Orchard Rd flood - 3%

FT policy - 3%

COE - 3%

Tin Pei Ling - 3%

and so on.............................

 

 

[Old-driver]

We must oso assume that WP knows how to count as well and take a calculated risk

[Readonly]

bro everyone knows is 50/50 fights lah... ure 46% is close enuff to 50%...

 

pple r more interested in bishan toa payoh & holland bkt timah..

 

the sad part about this election is that one of the main problems whihc is housing cost, & MBT will escape scot free. MBT shld be the one out of parliament, not GY.... >:(

 

Actually having MBT still in parliament is good.

Let the opposition go in and GANG BANG his shorty arse.

 

More people will watch parliament then hehe.

[Galantspeedz]

I have no confident in Singaporean that will be willing to go all out to vote for the national rather than self interest.

 

 

 

never ever could understand this sentence.... why voting for PAP is in self interest? And opp is for national?

 

 

[Acemundo]

We should all fast forward to results night.

 

 

How do you feel if PAP gets all seats and no oppo?

 

How do you feel if PAP loses one or two GRC?

 

 

The answer is obvious.

 

Tell all your undecided friends.

 

if first scenario happens, singapoerans will be screwd.

 

if second scenario happens, singaproeans life will improve becaue pap will be forced to acknowledge the issues on hand as well as lisetn to the voters

[Readonly]

You never take into account the swing from those Pro PAP for the many screw-ups that happened in SG.

 

High cost of living - 3%

Mas Selamat - 3 %

YOG - 3%

Prataman salary - 3%

Old man threat - 3%

HDB prices - 3%

Orchard Rd flood - 3%

FT policy - 3%

COE - 3%

Tin Pei Ling - 3%

and so on.............................

 

In that case you never factor in these

 

PM apologize

Ministers Crying

GY saying PAP will change

 

[Icedbs]

I have no confident in Singaporean that will be willing to go all out to vote for the national rather than self interest.

 

 

 

never ever could understand this sentence.... why voting for PAP is in self interest? And opp is for national?

 

As long your avatar is a lightning, it will be hard for you to understand that.