WP will not win in Aljunied...sad to say that...

[Poper]

Good analysis, but there is one important factor that you have not taken into consideration.

 

That is the age group.

 

The age profile of the voters (and the proportion of them between young and old) is different now compared to 5 years ago.

 

If you can also analyse the age group, and make certain logical assumption on that, your analysis will be far more complete.

 

Nice analysis indeed.. While numbers do sound convincing, the unmeasureable factors play a big influence this time.. Eg. cost of living, joblesses to FW/FT, astronomical ministeral pay, pap screw-ups.. Shifting of demographics (people die, people move house, youth grown up etc) as quoted above too.. Thus, I believe WP will win Aljunied.

 

I've chatted with 20 people over the last 2 weeks at work, at parent's place, with friends over email/chat... I only recall 1 person who said, "he's not too sure who to vote because PAP seems to promise better future for his kids"..

 

Another auntie said : "All my co-workers said they will not vote for PAP this time"

My friend said : "My family and I will all vote for WP"

 

That's my take.. We shall know on 8th May !

[Mike1234]

Why not?

 

[Ivan_06]

I have no confident in Singaporean that will be willing to go all out to vote for the national rather than self interest.

 

 

 

never ever could understand this sentence.... why voting for PAP is in self interest? And opp is for national?

 

very simple, people simply do not want opp as a matter of "Not in my backyard" principle...

 

btw, dun underestimate the strength of the civil service and values of homes.... especially in areas like AMK, Bishan-TPY GRC...

 

dun rock the system... hence to me, voting for PAP is in self interest.

i know many people who are like that.

[Icedbs]

You never take into account the swing from those Pro PAP for the many screw-ups that happened in SG.

 

High cost of living - 3%

Mas Selamat - 3 %

YOG - 3%

Prataman salary - 3%

Old man threat - 3%

HDB prices - 3%

Orchard Rd flood - 3%

FT policy - 3%

COE - 3%

Tin Pei Ling - 3%

and so on.............................

 

The problem is, for most Sporeans, the above issues are immediately mitigated the moment they see their Growth and Share $$$.

 

Sad but true.

[Hondacub777]

Aljunied is the best hope for oppo.If they can't win,where else can?

[Ngck]

Hard to say. TS doubts is not wrong... only figures are not right as they are assumptions.

 

Only MIW knows how much votes is being moved. They have all the data.

 

Maybe they panic now also just for show. to let singaporeans seem like the is a "fight"

 

Maybe only

[Joseph22]

As long your avatar is a lightning, it will be hard for you to understand that.

 

i view it as opp supporter trying to place themself on moral highground.

 

end of day you ask yourself what is the real reason you vote against PAP?

 

lets not lie, its still for your own interest. dont have to say until so high and mighty noble.

[Viceroymenthol]

When you walk into the polling station, see all the intimidating uniformed police and plainclothes police around, as well as many white shirt, white pants volunteers, you may get freaked out and change your mind.

 

Please don't.

[Tonyng]

 

Yep.

 

For all Voters,

 

People taking about freak results, losing ministers, votes not secret are just spreading fear that our system has engendered unfortunately.

 

It is a magical feeling when you know in your own heart what should be the right result and you see it happening.

 

Vote wisely.

 

 

[Readonly]

I have no confident in Singaporean that will be willing to go all out to vote for the national rather than self interest.

 

 

 

never ever could understand this sentence.... why voting for PAP is in self interest? And opp is for national?

 

Because there is only 2.2 million voters while our population is now 5.5million.

Do the maths.

[Maz0608]

This is one ward that I will place my bet on the PAP and happy to lose it.

Frankly speaking I think the PAP will be able to retain the ward because most of the voters will place self interest above the national interest.

[ZaC71S]

You never take into account the swing from those Pro PAP for the many screw-ups that happened in SG.

 

High cost of living - 3%

Mas Selamat - 3 %

YOG - 3%

Prataman salary - 3%

Old man threat - 3%

HDB prices - 3%

Orchard Rd flood - 3%

FT policy - 3%

COE - 3%

Tin Pei Ling - 3%

and so on.............................

hahaha. Tin pei ling - 3%??? yeah that I agree cos I fall under this category. Kate Spade!!!!

[Icedbs]

i view it as opp supporter trying to place themself on moral highground.

 

end of day you ask yourself what is the real reason you vote against PAP?

 

lets not lie, its still for your own interest. dont have to say until so high and mighty noble.

 

Nope...if self interest..I would say PAP is the best. I am living comfortably, why rock the boat?

 

But if you go for national interest, where no one should be left behind, no one should be picking up cans and eating food left by others, then you know that you need more alternative voices in the parliament.

Edited May 6, 2011 by Icedbs

[Kiadaw]

i view it as opp supporter trying to place themself on moral highground.

 

end of day you ask yourself what is the real reason you vote against PAP?

 

lets not lie, its still for your own interest. dont have to say until so high and mighty noble.

 

Yes, its for my self interest. & my "self" include my children & their future generation, my parents, my friends, my NS buddies that share the the hot sun & smelly uniform as me at ICT, & my fellow Singaporeans who work hard for the progress of our nation.

 

Yes, I am am selfish.

[Joseph22]

Yes, its for my self interest. & my "self" include my children & their future generation, my parents, my friends, my NS buddies that share the the hot sun & smelly uniform as me at ICT, & my fellow Singaporeans who work hard for the progress of our nation.

 

Yes, I am am selfish.

 

Say until so noble, but you know yourself, whether you are doing it for every singaporean or for your own desendant.

 

if former then good for you, if latter that is just own interest.

[Tigerwoods]

I have no confident in Singaporean that will be willing to go all out to vote for the national rather than self interest.

 

 

 

never ever could understand this sentence.... why voting for PAP is in self interest? And opp is for national?

Because Birds of a feather flock together.

I have an Inter-National Bird and never a Selfish Bird.

[Joseph22]

Nope...if self interest..I would say PAP is the best. I am living comfortably, why rock the boat?

 

But if you go for national interest, where no one should be left behind, no one should be picking up cans and eating food left by others, then you know that you need more alternative voices in the parliament.

 

 

you know this is a global issue that no one have a solution for?

 

if you dont know, then good luck to you, no matter how many government you change also face the same problem.

[Acemundo]

i view it as opp supporter trying to place themself on moral highground.

 

end of day you ask yourself what is the real reason you vote against PAP?

 

lets not lie, its still for your own interest. dont have to say until so high and mighty noble.

 

actually you are both right and wrong.

 

voting for opposition is for self interest as well because we believe voting the opposition to check on the ruling party will bring long term benefits to the coutnry and we benefit as well although indirectly.

 

voting for opposition comparatively yields less interest, especially in the short term than voting for ruling party.

 

1) upgrading and stuff is directly linked to the votes and will be definitely taken away if vote opposition

2) stock market in hte short term may drop also, so it definitely yields more short term intererst to vote ruling party

3) longer term gain is more unguaranteed than shorter term gain because of the time factor and external circumstances that may happen over time