Properties will never crash!

[SimonTan]

Low fertility rate, no in-migration will lead to S'pore's population decline

 

SINGAPORE: Singapore's resident population will decline and become extremely aged if the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is extremely low and if there is no in-migration.

 

This is according to a landmark study on future population growth and change for Singapore published on Wednesday by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS).

 

The study produced four population scenarios based on varying TFR and immigration levels.

 

The study said with TFR at 1.24 births per woman and zero net migration, Singapore's population will decline to 3.03 million in 2050.

 

With 30,000 migrants added annually, the population projection is 4.89 million in 2050.

 

And with 60,000 migrants added annually, the population projection is 6.76 million in 2050.

 

The study also looked at a situation where TFR can be raised to 1.85 births per woman by 2025 with no new immigration. With such a scenario, the study said population size can still only hit 3.37 million in 2050.

 

The ratio of working people (between the ages of 15-64) to the elderly will also decrease. For instance, with low fertility and 30,000 new residents a year, the ratio drops from 8.6 in 2005, to 2.7 in 2050.

 

A key conclusion obtained from the study is that without immigration, the total population will decline, even if Singapore's total fertility rate rises from the current 1.15 to 1.85. The number of working people available to support each elderly person is also set to drop in all the scenarios.

 

However, Dr Yap Mui Teng, who is a senior research fellow at Institute of Policy Studies, said immigration can reduce the dependency burden.

 

Dr Yap said: "Under the scenario with higher net migration, there will be more people of working ages to support each elderly, compared to the scenario with low migration or scenarios with zero net migration."

 

Amid growing concerns from the ground about overcrowding and stiffer competition from foreign labour, some asked if population growth is absolutely necessary and how much is enough.

 

Associate Professor Paulin-Tay Straughan from the National University of Singapore said it is important for the government to determine how much population growth is needed to ensure a balance between a vibrant economy and the social health of society.

 

She said: "That's why these projections are so important. For us to understand how the projections are made, so that as a community together, we agree that these are the opportunity costs we're willing to accept because we all want to strive for this quality of life."

 

The government had earlier said it does not target a specific population size.

 

The study also projected that there will be fewer young people in Singapore if fertility rate remains low. The number of young people under 14 years of age will go down by more than half from 699,000 in 2005 to 274,400 by 2050.

[ER-3682]

Seems like C.O.E. also will never falls too much.

[SimonTan]

To reach the 6.5 million population figure we need 60,000 immigrant annually.

Assume it's husband, wife n a single kid, 60,000 divided 3= 20,000 new units.

Can the land support 20,000 new flats,condo, house each year?

It can, and this is the reason Why buying property in Singapore is a good move.

There is always this group of immigrant who will rent or help support n push up the property prices!!!

 

I am almost certain to get a second prop by end of this year. There is no way the property will crash, given that the gov has already announced the above news!

The option of not allowing in immigrants will cause Singapore to decline faster.

Further more gov also said before they want population to reach 6 million or 7 million if possible.

 

[SimonTan]

With this news...I m sure the obvious option for most Singaporeans is to buy more properties to rent out to these group of immigrants.

 

Very open n direct news.

 

Thanks for clarifying up the immigrant issues. No matter what, this news is to tell us to accept it n live with it.

 

Now how we prosper with this piece of news?? I know what I should do!!

 

[SimonTan]

Many experts say there will be oversupply, and it's foolish for HDB to release so much BTO units.

I think I got my answer as to why khaw is so steady and confident in his plan.

Thanks.

 

[Kiadaw]

Our retirement funds depends on OUR CPF, savings & investments, what does more people working (unless its our chidren) helping us much, if at all?

 

If we have pension or welfare system like some other countries, it make more sense.

 

Anyway, this news also means that Singapore population landscape will continue to be alter with even more % of population made out of immigrants.

 

My sense of belonging here gets lesser & lesser by the day, make me wonder why I sacrifice 2.5 golden years of my youth to serve my NS, & the annual ICT.

 

Only time I feel I special over FT & immigrants is every 5 years when I get to vote (if I get to vote)

Edited September 7, 2011 by Kiadaw

[Sabbie]

Many experts say there will be oversupply, and it's foolish for HDB to release so much BTO units.

I think I got my answer as to why khaw is so steady and confident in his plan.

Thanks.

 

Are you a professional property agent?

[Shull]

Again.. knee jerk reaction to increase our working population by mass importing foreigners.. Why don't they look at the root of the problem? Why are Singaporeans not having more children?

[Sabbie]

Again.. knee jerk reaction to increase our working population by mass importing foreigners.. Why don't they look at the root of the problem? Why are Singaporeans not having more children?

 

 

So stressed at work, how to have sex, no sex how to have children?

[Darryn]

So stressed at work, how to have sex, no sex how to have children?

 

Just get duck to help you.

 

Duck very good.

 

Or be like the US - one man, 150 kids (and counting)

[Shorty]

y do the country need so many ppl? 6million??? isnt that gonna overcrowd our tiny island? the country has become wat it is now with 3-4m ppl. need extra 2 m for fark??

[Sabbie]

Just get duck to help you.

 

Duck very good.

 

Or be like the US - one man, 150 kids (and counting)

 

duck? or turtle soup

[Tigerwoods]

y do the country need so many ppl? 6million??? isnt that gonna overcrowd our tiny island? the country has become wat it is now with 3-4m ppl. need extra 2 m for fark??

History has shown that declining population will make a country disappear from the Globe.

To sustain a country and its continued growth, the base of the population needs to increase. SG can still expand land reclamation and build upwards.

The problem is infrastructure network... at the rate our "pubic transport is doing, they seemed to be busy counting their cash only...

[Duckduck]

the article is just stating projections, it is not an explicit population target set by garmen lah...

 

in the article itself says:"The government had earlier said it does not target a specific population size".... LOL

[Duckduck]

So stressed at work, how to have sex, no sex how to have children?

 

after have sex n get children, even more stress coz cost of healthcare n education tuition n ECAs dam ex :(

[Hosaybo]

population growth is the no brainer way to increase GDP and get growth.

[Hermitage]

y do the country need so many ppl? 6million??? isnt that gonna overcrowd our tiny island? the country has become wat it is now with 3-4m ppl. need extra 2 m for fark??

 

Agreed! 6.5 million? That's madness! How to drive, take MRT, or even go shopping on the weekends?! If it really reaches such levels, you can take 6.5 million minus 1! 'Cos I'll be leaving for greener pastures!

[Karu]

Article is to justify more FTs coming in, competing for our jobs, houses, school, men / women etc... Now that GE & PE is over. No need to bother about the tulan 'natives' like us!! Life will be more stressful!!!