The Perfect Storm of the Stock Market II

[sti2020]

5 hours ago, TangoCharlie said:

And STI market participants sound like saints and upright capitalists? Lol

A bamboo capsize whole sampan.

you sound like one of them 🤣

[Dp26]

Markets have a good run last 3-4 weeks! 
happy!! 

[Lala81]

23 hours ago, Throttle2 said:

Those who listen and followed me and bought on the way down, all huat on the way up now.

Sell easily got real money real profits, unlike some other illiquid asset classes for long term only. 

Must mix and match during the correct times

you’re welcome...😎muayhahaha

 

haha i listened to my friends too much.
Cut losses too early into the rally and didn't really average down during the March bottom cos of peer psychology.

Well. Ok lah, live to fight another day. Nothing to buy now when it's mostly green. Wait for the rest of 2020 to happen. 

Congrats to those who benefited from the last 2-3 weeks.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Lala81

[Throttle2]

16 minutes ago, Lala81 said:

haha i listened to my friends too much.
Cut losses too early into the rally and didn't really average down during the March bottom cos of peer psychology.

Well. Ok lah, live to fight another day. Nothing to buy now when it's mostly green. Wait for the rest of 2020 to happen. 

Congrats to those who benefited from the last 2-3 weeks.

Are your friend doctors too. Just wondering

just play out your strategy, everything else is hindsight.

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Throttle2

[Lala81]

1 minute ago, Throttle2 said:

Are your friend doctors too. Just wondering

 1 is, but rest not. My long time buddies/school classmates. Haha all bears there. Apocalypse is coming! 

[Throttle2]

1 minute ago, Lala81 said:

 1 is, but rest not. My long time buddies/school classmates. Haha all bears there. Apocalypse is coming! 

The most difficult thing to me about investing is the point of inflection between real economy and majority investor mindset 

In other words, your friends are totally right, but taxpayers got f**ked worldwide again. We dont know when the bough breaks so its best not to be the baby

[Wt_know]

1 hour ago, Lala81 said:

haha i listened to my friends too much.
Cut losses too early into the rally and didn't really average down during the March bottom cos of peer psychology.

Well. Ok lah, live to fight another day. Nothing to buy now when it's mostly green. Wait for the rest of 2020 to happen. 

Congrats to those who benefited from the last 2-3 weeks.

no worries ... hearsay ... bus come and go ... all the time ... 

[Lala81]

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/singapore-oil-trader-hin-leong-owes-banks-at-least-425-billion?utm_source=STSmartphone&utm_medium=share&utm_term=2020-04-15+16%3A09%3A44

 First casualty?

Edited April 15, 2020 by Lala81

[Throttle2]

27 minutes ago, Lala81 said:

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/singapore-oil-trader-hin-leong-owes-banks-at-least-425-billion?utm_source=STSmartphone&utm_medium=share&utm_term=2020-04-15+16%3A09%3A44

 First casualty?

Every wave creates its ripples

 

[Voodooman]

36 minutes ago, Lala81 said:

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/singapore-oil-trader-hin-leong-owes-banks-at-least-425-billion?utm_source=STSmartphone&utm_medium=share&utm_term=2020-04-15+16%3A09%3A44

 First casualty?

This is a really an old name. What happened? Swimming naked?  

If Hin Leong can go down, a lot of companies on SGX can be suspect. Better go through my portfolio one more time.  😓😓😓

[sti2020]

The market is pricing in 'a very enthusiastic outlook:' Citi Private Bank's CIO

Yahoo Finance15 April 2020

Quote

The market is now pricing “a very enthusiastic outlook” on how and when the economy will re-open, says David Bailin, Citi Private Bank’s chief investment officer.

Bailin says the market is presuming regional and global economies will return to a robust state quickly and a recession will be over by the end of the year.

“The market which normally looks out, six months, in my mind is actually looking out 18 months. It’s almost pricing in a vaccine,” said Bailin.

Citi Private Bank forecasts unemployment may briefly go up to almost 25%, and Bailin’s team projects less than 50% of the international flights that existed three months ago could exist at the end of December.

“When you put together a much more realistic view about what reopening the economy is, and you compare that to where stock markets are today, you realize that stock markets are very fully valued.”

 

[sti2020]

IMF: 'The Great Lockdown' to be worst recession since Great Depression

Yahoo Finance15 April 2020

Quote

The International Monetary Fund said Tuesday that the novel coronavirus will likely push the global economy into its worst recession since the Great Depression, warning that prospects over a global rebound are highly uncertain.

In its biannual World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts the global economy contracting by 3% in 2020 as governments around the world shut down economies to contain the spread of the coronavirus. The forecast is the worst print in the report’s history and is a dramatic downturn from the IMF’s January projection for 3.3% growth, published before the virus took full form.

An unprecedented amount of countries are now asking for emergency aid. IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath told Yahoo Finance that about 100 of the IMF’s 189 member countries have asked for help in the last four weeks.

“It’s a truly global crisis and we’re seeing a very large number of countries in distress,” Gopinath said.

 

[Bacteria83]

The amount of debts incurred will be massive. Since USD is the mainly own international currency, they are basically using the world to finance their debt. How the world move on after this massive chunk of debts with Trump on the Helm will be quite scary.

[TangoCharlie]

3 hours ago, Throttle2 said:

The most difficult thing to me about investing is the point of inflection between real economy and majority investor mindset 

In other words, your friends are totally right, but taxpayers got f**ked worldwide again. We dont know when the bough breaks so its best not to be the baby

Not sure I have understood your point. Can elaborate? Thanks 

[Throttle2]

2 minutes ago, TangoCharlie said:

Not sure I have understood your point. Can elaborate? Thanks 

Sure.

for example, we know that if people dont panic buy at supermarkets there would be enough for everyone. Nobody will go hungry if everyone acts accordingly.

but if the masses (though wrong) rushes out to panic buy, everyone will suffer, including those who did the right thing.

so what is the right thing? 

[Cauldron]

Asian Financial Crisis 2.0: Banking system creaks under pressure of companies struggling to survive coronavirus pandemic

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3080030/asian-financial-crisis-20-banking-system-creaks-under

[TangoCharlie]

1 hour ago, Throttle2 said:

Sure.

for example, we know that if people dont panic buy at supermarkets there would be enough for everyone. Nobody will go hungry if everyone acts accordingly.

but if the masses (though wrong) rushes out to panic buy, everyone will suffer, including those who did the right thing.

so what is the right thing? 

Who am I to judge? It's his man nature of self interest.

In stock market context, when I buy when people panic sell, am I taking advantage of their fear or providing liquidity for the market to function properly?

[mersaylee]

47 minutes ago, Cauldron said:

Asian Financial Crisis 2.0: Banking system creaks under pressure of companies struggling to survive coronavirus pandemic

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3080030/asian-financial-crisis-20-banking-system-creaks-under

That’s not good...almost point two of top five causes of the Great Depression...

1. Stock market crash (tick) 

2. Bank failure

3. Consumerism slows (tick - except for mask and sanitizer)

4. Trade tariffs with Europe (tick - tariffs here tariffs there)

5. Drought (tick - covid19)

Brace for a long ten years to cum or succumb...