The Perfect Storm of the Stock Market II

[Chongster]

Where are all the guys who say buy on the way up.  You guys buying now?  

[Showster]

3 minutes ago, Chongster said:

Where are all the guys who say buy on the way up.  You guys buying now?  

Already cashed out from the biotech gains to recoup other blue chip losses. Now a bit clueless whether to keep cash as buffer or to pump back to selected blue chips, or to continue betting on the red chips. 

[sti2020]

25 minutes ago, Showster said:

Already cashed out from the biotech gains to recoup other blue chip losses. Now a bit clueless whether to keep cash as buffer or to pump back to selected blue chips, or to continue betting on the red chips. 

buying now is a gamble because the current stock rally is a bubble driven by fed spending, it cant be driven by the real economy which is now sick with record high unemployment, record high debt , record low oil price , record low output

with sp500 currently at just 10% below the pre-covid high (ie back to jun19 level) , the up-side gain is limited. even if sp500 shoot to a record high say 3500, how much up-side gain from current 2900 level ? only 20%

even then , is 20% sustainable?

the bubble may burst when the peak is reached, or even before that

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by sti2020

[Throttle2]

22 minutes ago, Roh96 said:

When do you think lelong sale will start?

The lelong sale in Sg stocks?  The move in the stock market has happened and it wont happen again until flies really start to fall.

The whole world is being fed liquidity drugs manufactured by every govt. some countries will survive, some wont.  I am expecting Singapore to survive becos i think we have the money. But there are many different outcomes depending on how the money is used.

And When will the flies fall? My estimation is that 4Q20 into 1Q21 would be most intense and likely to be the point which breaks the camel’s back.   

As mentioned in previous post, the stock market is mostly a reflection of future expectations.  It does not reflect the true current state of the economy at any given time.

The above or it may just happen tomorrow.  

Just be prepared instead of leaving it to fate.  Thats been my stance, always

[Cauldron]

40 minutes ago, Chongster said:

Where are all the guys who say buy on the way up.  You guys buying now?  

Think this up is a bit misleading

 

[Showster]

9 minutes ago, Throttle2 said:

The lelong sale in Sg stocks?  The move in the stock market has happened and it wont happen again until flies really start to fall.

The whole world is being fed liquidity drugs manufactured by every govt. some countries will survive, some wont.  I am expecting Singapore to survive becos i think we have the money. But there are many different outcomes depending on how the money is used.

And When will the flies fall? My estimation is that 4Q20 into 1Q21 would be most intense and likely to be the point which breaks the camel’s back.   

As mentioned in previous post, the stock market is mostly a reflection of future expectations.  It does not reflect the true current state of the economy at any given time.

The above or it may just happen tomorrow.  

Just be prepared instead of leaving it to fate.  Thats been my stance, always

Ok thanks master. I will reserve some buffer as cash while on the lookout for opportunities then. 

To 2021 and beyond. 

[Throttle2]

47 minutes ago, Chongster said:

Where are all the guys who say buy on the way up.  You guys buying now?  

Who are those guys?  

I always advocate buying on the way down in such situations.

Neither way is wrong but takes different levels of discipline and emotions. 

[sti2020]

9 minutes ago, Showster said:

Ok thanks master.

yumgong lor , since when you become servant 🤣

[Enye]

wah...buy on the way down, get criticized silly dunno how to cut loss and buy at the bottom

buy on the way up, get criticized greedy and fomo, dunno how to wait for the next bottom to buy.

😅

[Throttle2]

39 minutes ago, Enye said:

wah...buy on the way down, get criticized silly dunno how to cut loss and buy at the bottom

buy on the way up, get criticized greedy and fomo, dunno how to wait for the next bottom to buy.

😅

Who cares, just put money where your mouth is.

too many people here dont and only cheecheewaiwai, especially the new forumers.  Unproven, unknown, unabashed crap.

 

[noobcarbuyer]

1 hour ago, Throttle2 said:

The lelong sale in Sg stocks?  The move in the stock market has happened and it wont happen again until flies really start to fall.

The whole world is being fed liquidity drugs manufactured by every govt. some countries will survive, some wont.  I am expecting Singapore to survive becos i think we have the money. But there are many different outcomes depending on how the money is used.

And When will the flies fall? My estimation is that 4Q20 into 1Q21 would be most intense and likely to be the point which breaks the camel’s back.   

As mentioned in previous post, the stock market is mostly a reflection of future expectations.  It does not reflect the true current state of the economy at any given time.

The above or it may just happen tomorrow.  

Just be prepared instead of leaving it to fate.  Thats been my stance, always

If some countries' economies fall and some survive, where does this leave a globally connected city dependant on open trade, without a hinterland, like us?

Globalization replaced by regionalization.

We will survive but at a much diminished level. 

At that point, I think we will be looking at survival rather than catching the falling knife or buying on the way up. 

[sti2020]

16 minutes ago, noobcarbuyer said:

If some countries' economies fall and some survive, where does this leave a globally connected city dependant on open trade, without a hinterland, like us?

Globalization replaced by regionalization.

We will survive but at a much diminished level. 

At that point, I think we will be looking at survival rather than catching the falling knife or buying on the way up. 

mai kan cheong, patience 🤣

[Throttle2]

31 minutes ago, noobcarbuyer said:

If some countries' economies fall and some survive, where does this leave a globally connected city dependant on open trade, without a hinterland, like us?

Globalization replaced by regionalization.

We will survive but at a much diminished level. 

At that point, I think we will be looking at survival rather than catching the falling knife or buying on the way up. 

So good luck to those with big debt relying on big speculative income ......

if anything, they will be trapped even if they survived.

 

[sti2020]

27 minutes ago, Throttle2 said:

So good luck to those with big debt relying on big speculative income ......

if anything, they will be trapped even if they survived.

 

heng ah, ZERO loan on hand now

everything FULLY PAID ! 🤣

[Roh96]

3 hours ago, Throttle2 said:

The lelong sale in Sg stocks?  The move in the stock market has happened and it wont happen again until flies really start to fall.

The whole world is being fed liquidity drugs manufactured by every govt. some countries will survive, some wont.  I am expecting Singapore to survive becos i think we have the money. But there are many different outcomes depending on how the money is used.

And When will the flies fall? My estimation is that 4Q20 into 1Q21 would be most intense and likely to be the point which breaks the camel’s back.   

As mentioned in previous post, the stock market is mostly a reflection of future expectations.  It does not reflect the true current state of the economy at any given time.

The above or it may just happen tomorrow.  

Just be prepared instead of leaving it to fate.  Thats been my stance, always

Thanks for sharing and appreciate that. Not many people are here to share and contribute. Many are just shooting rubbish and talking about blind faith. Well I have added them into my ignore list...Haha..

[Throttle2]

1 minute ago, Roh96 said:

Thanks for sharing and appreciate that. Not many people are here to share and contribute. Many are just shooting rubbish and talking about blind faith. Well I have added them into my ignore list...Haha..

 

Thanks too for reading.

Yes, add them.  Its the best way to handle noise. and they can add us too.  All the better that way. 

 

[sti2020]

Singapore banks set to post first profit decline since 2016

Bloomberg 29 April 2020

Quote

(Bloomberg) -- All three of Singapore’s banks are expected to see profit declines for the first time since 2016 as they set aside cash for a potential spike in bad loans stemming from the coronavirus-fuelled economic slump.

Net income at each lender probably slid between 21% and 28% in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, according to the average estimates of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. DBS Group Holdings Ltd., the nation’s largest bank, may post the steepest profit drop when it kicks off earnings season on Thursday, while Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. is forecast to report the smallest contraction.

The pain for Singapore’s lenders is set to persist as the city-state braces for a sharp economic contraction this year thanks to the pandemic that’s crippling manufacturing, tourism and other services. Banks are also contending with falling interest rates and slowing loan growth, and the crash in oil prices may trigger defaults among local firms that cater to the energy sector.

“Banks always tend to do badly in the midst of an economic recession,” said Min Lan Tan, head of the Asia-Pacific chief investment office at UBS Global Wealth Management. The slumping economy will fuel bad loans, squeeze interest margins and slow credit growth, she said.

OCBC and United Overseas Bank Ltd. will report next week. The last time the trio all posted a profit retreat was in the final quarter of 2016, when many energy-related firms defaulted in the aftermath of an earlier oil slump.

Asset Quality

Analysts are predicting a sharp jump in credit costs due to the banks’ exposure to the oil, gas and commodities sector and loans to small and midsized companies.

The banks had combined exposure of $680 million to Hin Leong Trading (Pte) Ltd., the Singapore oil trader that filed for court protection from creditors this month, as of April 9. It’s not clear whether the local lenders will have provisioned against Hin Leong by the end of March.

DBS may have booked a loan-loss buffer of S$640 million in the quarter, up from S$76 million a year ago, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. They see OCBC’s provisions swelling 81% to S$451 million, and UOB’s more than tripling to S$380 million.

Jefferies analyst Krishna Guha expects the banks to book credit costs of 60 to 100 basis points and said guidance will be “crucial” to understanding the cost trajectory this year.

 

[sti2020]

37 minutes ago, Roh96 said:

Thanks for sharing and appreciate that. Not many people are here to share and contribute. Many are just shooting rubbish and talking about blind faith. Well I have added them into my ignore list...Haha..

school holidays or old folk home opened ? Haha 🤣