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The Perfect Storm of the Stock Market II


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14 minutes ago, Starry said:

Bond prices, because of the increase in yield, has been dropping since the start of the year.  The long term bond prices drop more than the short term ones. Those who invested in say, TLT (ETF for 20+ years Treasury bond) saw a decline of 31% in TLT from the start of the year till now.  

Basically for this year till todate, whether stock or bonds, their portfolio would have drop in anycase. There is no escape even for mid and long term bonds.

like playing snakes & ladders board game ...

what goes up must come down :grin:

 

Edited by Wt_know
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29 minutes ago, Starry said:

Bond prices, because of the increase in yield, has been dropping since the start of the year.  The long term bond prices drop more than the short term ones. Those who invested in say, TLT (ETF for 20+ years Treasury bond) saw a decline of 31% in TLT from the start of the year till now.  

Basically for this year till todate, whether stock or bonds, their portfolio would have drop in anycase. There is no escape even for mid and long term bonds.

All these etf are marked to market.

Looking forward, Say if I lock n 10 year us Treasury at 4%pa. I get regular income in the meantime and get principal back at the end of 10 years. Compare with. A REIT paying 5+%pa.... yield not guaranteed, at the end of 10 years no idea what's the market price.

So the question is where would put my cash now? Am I happy with additional 1+% return for holding a riskier asset? 

 

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24 minutes ago, TangoCharlie said:

All these etf are marked to market.

Looking forward, Say if I lock n 10 year us Treasury at 4%pa. I get regular income in the meantime and get principal back at the end of 10 years. Compare with. A REIT paying 5+%pa.... yield not guaranteed, at the end of 10 years no idea what's the market price.

So the question is where would put my cash now? Am I happy with additional 1+% return for holding a riskier asset? 

 

1% more than risk free treasuries? Probably AAA corporate/govt bonds. 

But must check the tax on the dividends. I read somewhere dividends from bond funds could be taxed vs holding bonds directly. 

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13 minutes ago, Volvobrick said:

That's outperform! 

basket ... my pigu kena whipped by Fed until open flower liao 

don't rub salt ok ... [bigcry] 

getting-spanked-spank.gif

Edited by Wt_know
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32 minutes ago, TangoCharlie said:

All these etf are marked to market.

Looking forward, Say if I lock n 10 year us Treasury at 4%pa. I get regular income in the meantime and get principal back at the end of 10 years. Compare with. A REIT paying 5+%pa.... yield not guaranteed, at the end of 10 years no idea what's the market price.

So the question is where would put my cash now? Am I happy with additional 1+% return for holding a riskier asset? 

 

There are certainly many considerations in the current market.  If you lock in a US Treasury for 10 years, will there be forex risk in that 10 years that could erode the principal?  And any withholding tax on that 4% yield? 

 But I would subscribe to the same advice like mention by others.....decide their comfortable risk profile and stick with a portfolio allocation that reflects that profile.  From my personal experience, jumping in and out of different portfolios/strategies often does not result in good returns. 

For myself, I just keep things simple as of now by putting some spare money into SSB and T-bills.  

Edited by Starry
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Just now, Wt_know said:

deployed $20K last 2 days .... already down by 3% [bigcry] 

 

Thats understandable.   Anyway markets really go up and down.  Thats how it is. 
just until very late last year, all the gurus say, why hold cash? Cash is trash? 

now they eat their words.  These are real top gurus running multi billion dollar funds.    Not fly by night youtube kind. 
 

moral of the story, Cash will always be king.  Only thing is sometimes less king than other times💪

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6 minutes ago, Throttle2 said:

Thats understandable.   Anyway markets really go up and down.  Thats how it is. 
just until very late last year, all the gurus say, why hold cash? Cash is trash? 

now they eat their words.  These are real top gurus running multi billion dollar funds.    Not fly by night youtube kind. 
 

moral of the story, Cash will always be king.  Only thing is sometimes less king than other times💪

Stock gurus still outperform the crypto gurus! 

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Just buy buy a bit bit here there la.

 

console ourselves that this is just a good year for accumulating.

this is really a year of 输少算赢

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wah ... jit dong jeng liao 

with borders opening and airline starts flying 

can pick up some below $3? [sly] 

2022-09-29_111541.png

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25 minutes ago, Dp26 said:

Just buy buy a bit bit here there la.

console ourselves that this is just a good year for accumulating.

this is really a year of 输少算赢

Guru says one .... :grin:

need to plant the seed now and wait for the tree to grow .... 

2022-09-29_111800.png

 

i am hoping it drops more so that i can buy more

but it's not easy to look at the ang ku keuh portfolio and wipe out all the paper profit from Mar 20 .... [bigcry] 

Edited by Wt_know
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