COE Bidding 2nd - May 2013

[Darryn]

I believe it benefits everyone if we all start sharing facts and make best educated guess based on information we have.

That way we share and learn from each other.

Let's leave the rest of the petty stuff out.

 

So here is what I understand to be facts.

Singapore LTA COE announcement

 

There will be 4,789 over projected COE quota from Aug 13 to Jan 15.

LTA should be announcing if they are indeed going ahead with this release in middle of July 13.

That roughly translate to about additional 141 quota per bidding round.

Not really a lot if that is split between CAT A, B and E.

My opinion is that it will hardly make any difference in the price.

Secondly from now until Jan 15 unless they flip prata the plan is to cap the vehicle growth rate at 0.5% p.a.

Even with the new rules in effect and more people do not renew or replace their cars it does not mean that LTA will suddenly start bumping up the quotas next year.

We all know traffic congestion is a major issue and expanding roads is not enough, more likely that LTA will need to claw back quite a bit of COE to make traffic better.

So again I don't think the large expectation that everyone is hoping for and Lui is talking about will be as good as expected.

Not unless everyone prefers to sit in traffic every day during peak hours.

Lastly we know the govt is still looking to tweak the policy so who knows if they will implement additional taxes or loan restrictions.

I'm looking to buy my 2nd car and I'm looking around already to make sure I do it in case they impose the additional car tax.

A major crash in COE price would put LTA in a bad light and so I don't think it's likely next 2 year either.

Other unknowns I'm not going to speculate on are whether we will get a financial crisis or GE 2016.

 

Above are just my guess and I stand corrected if anyone else has other information I don't.

I could be as dead wrong as the next guy.

Also interested to hear what other views you guys have.

Let's share and learn.

 

I'm hoping that in the 2014-2016 period more deregistrations and the announced "more equitable" policy will bring the COE back to a more palatable level for me to get a new car. If not - then faint!

 

[Camrysfa]

You went for non-guaranteed right?

 

Like that, cannot kpkb - what's the point?

 

Non guarantee is like "try luck" only...it has happened before and will happen again.

 

Don't expect gold service from bronze price [smash]

 

buy 4D never strike also can grumble wat.....

[Mizarahi]

I'm hoping that in the 2014-2016 period more deregistrations and the announced "more equitable" policy will bring the COE back to a more palatable level for me to get a new car. If not - then faint!

 

Those de-registering in 2014 to 2016 will buy cars again. If car pop don't increase, unlikely, the COE will not drop.

I hoping for drastic action from govt. to force COE to drop. kekeke.

 

[Twich]

Not all. One step at a time. Look at today's stock market. Economy cycle is getting shorter and shorter. Also, new car needs at least 60k downpayment. Interest rate has gone up. Insurance premiums has gone up. Patrol price has gone up. ERP 2 is coming.

[Princey_anne]

Time to buy property instead then.

[Twich]

Very good point.100k or 20k COE will be equal zero at 10 years.

[Ictruall]

 

you have the same philosophy as my OC

 

in such cases, the saying "great minds think alike" fits the occasion like a glove [laugh]

[Ictruall]

buy 4D never strike also can grumble wat.....

correctly said.....but only short, small and not too loud a grumble please

[Matrix0405]

2nd Round, all COE went up. Has car prices or COE rebate gone up over the weekend?

[Ictruall]

Those de-registering in 2014 to 2016 will buy cars again. If car pop don't increase, unlikely, the COE will not drop.

I hoping for drastic action from govt. to force COE to drop. kekeke.

hope can hope of course......since hope dun need money mah.

 

when COE down just a few drops, buyers chiong again..so this little up/down roller coaster got no end.

you think oni you can buy meh ? by then many aso can afford so 'chiong tsunami' up COE again.

imo there are much much more at different $$$ levels waiting for lower COE to move forward than those buying today....think about this.

 

but agreed, I do guess COE can drop just a bit more lor......lowest if ever perhaps +/-10% 55K,...but I guess again must hope hope hope and wait wait wait a lot lot lot lor.

 

for those who are good at waiting and hoping

 

btw...why would you even think for a moment that the garmen wants COE prices to drop ? or am I missing something

[Pandaeyes]

hope can hope of course......since hope dun need money mah.

 

when COE down just a few drops, buyers chiong again..so this little up/down roller coaster got no end.

you think oni you can buy meh ? by then many aso can afford so 'chiong tsunami' up COE again.

imo there are much much more at different $$$ levels waiting for lower COE to move forward than those buying today....think about this.

 

but agreed, I do guess COE can drop just a bit more lor......lowest if ever perhaps +/-10% 55K,...but I guess again must hope hope hope and wait wait wait a lot lot lot lor.

 

for those who are good at waiting and hoping

 

btw...why would you even think for a moment that the garmen wants COE prices to drop ? or am I missing something

 

We have to get used to the new normal that's all. The yesteryears of 10-20k COE was a dream. The correction is now. Wake up from dream maybe? So at least for next 3 years till the next ahem we will see very controlled COE levels n tight bank loan measures. Those can tong tong but those who can't got to bite bullet and buy. If not just keep on hoping n give up hoping.

 

Even if can buy the next thing is satellite erp. Tax u till u have nothing. Make running costs high.

 

At the end of day, it is all about affordability. How willing are you to put that money down. Period.

Edited May 27, 2013 by Pandaeyes

[Twich]

Totally agreed. Likely it will around 40k to 50k.

[Mkl22]

Altis is a special car... It's a magical car for them.. Where in the world would any AD be able to achieve 29k gross profit selling a 11-13k OMV car?

 

aiyah different times now. costs are so high and the volume is so so low. if you think a AD can survive with just 10k profits, why not you do it also. 10k profits (which we are basing on the OMV calculations) are a thing of the past now, if the volume goes up a lot then maybe possible.

Edited May 27, 2013 by Mkl22

[Butakim]

Using my extremely limited Chinese I understand that you are saying the 4789 is a reduction and not an increase from Aug 13 to Jan 15?

I apologise if I'm reading it wrongly as an increase.

In this case adding on the 0.5% growth p.a. that would mean the the lower quota would put an even bigger pressure on COE price to shoot up?

That is bad news for people still waiting and hoping on the sideline.

 

LTA COE over allocation

 

4. A total of 4,789 remaining adjustments for over-projections in Quota Years 2008 and 2009 as well as expired COEs from 2009 were scheduled to be spread over bidding months from August 2012 to January 20142. These adjustments will now be deferred for 1 year from August 2012 to July 2013. They will resume from August 2013 to January 2015. This will make available 266 more COEs per month (or about 7% of the current monthly quota) from August 2012 to July 2013.

 

Please Re-Read the sentences again.

It says 266 more COE per month from August 2012 to July 2013 because the adjustments will be deferred from August 2012 to July 2013.

So, if there is no deferment, i.e. from Aug 2013, 266 COEs will be removed from the Quota.

 

 

[Extremesour]

Please Re-Read the sentences again.

It says 266 more COE per month from August 2012 to July 2013 because the adjustments will be deferred from August 2012 to July 2013.

So, if there is no deferment, i.e. from Aug 2013, 266 COEs will be removed from the Quota.

 

Yes you are right.

I did not read carefully.

Looks like there is not much relief from Aug 13 either with the 0.5% p.a. growth rate.

Does anyone know how the 133 less COE would be taken from the different CAT?

The numbers does not look very large if 133 quota is spread out.

I believe everyone is hoping that under the new MAS loan restrictions there will be more people not renewing or replacing their cars and more COE will be added back into the pool.

At least that's what I think Lui was thinking when he said to wait until 2014?

[Butakim]

Yes you are right.

I did not read carefully.

Looks like there is not much relief from Aug 13 either with the 0.5% p.a. growth rate.

Does anyone know how the 133 less COE would be taken from the different CAT?

The numbers does not look very large if 133 quota is spread out.

I believe everyone is hoping that under the new MAS loan restrictions there will be more people not renewing or replacing their cars and more COE will be added back into the pool.

At least that's what I think Lui was thinking when he said to wait until 2014?

 

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_arti...763-2682763933}

 

Re-again..

 

...

 

Still, he noted that the COE supply would go up over the next few years as more cars are deregistered, though it is unclear how prices would move.

 

He said: "For those who want to own a car now, I would advise that if they can defer the decision till a little bit later on, when the COE supply actually picks up in 2014, that may be a better time to revisit the situation then."

 

...

 

[Twich]

That's true! End of the who is paying?

[Extremesour]

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_arti...763-2682763933}

 

Re-again..

 

...

 

Still, he noted that the COE supply would go up over the next few years as more cars are deregistered, though it is unclear how prices would move.

 

He said: "For those who want to own a car now, I would advise that if they can defer the decision till a little bit later on, when the COE supply actually picks up in 2014, that may be a better time to revisit the situation then."

 

...

 

It is as vague and useless statements as what Khaw made about HDB prices.

I think better don't put too much hope that our ministers can really solve any of these housing or car problems.