Jump to content

Rupiah/Rupee at risk, SG/HK risk property bubble


Goldbug
 Share

Recommended Posts

hahaha i tot so many proclaim that many here r cash rich n no need take loan? D truth has been revealed n it shows d huge leverage in our system now...

 

Since 2009, its as if most forgot d tragedies of previous asian crisis. I witnessed a friend's family, who before d crisis dined at atas restaurants, had antique cars, had boats n lots of biz, n after d crash lost almost everything, becoz of bank loan default n as result asset liquidation...

Where got so many proclaim cash rich? Only cigar sommelier cum table wiper wat.

 

The rest of us just live by the humble adage: No money, don't buy.

 

Actually. If only a small number of businessmen default and go broke, govt is not worried. So sory your friend's family happened to be one of them.

 

But if the majority of working population and property asset owners go into negative equity because of asset price crash, or working population lost jobs and cannot make the monthly repayments, THEN the govt got huge problem on its hands. Cos it affects banks, stock market, listed companies, SMEs, their employees, the whole chain gang will kena and it goes back again in a circle. More employees lose jobs or pay cut, more cannot make payments, and so on it goes.

 

So the govt also trying very hard not to let it happen.

 

So property prices won't crash. It may go back to saner levels but crash? Never. The govt won't let it. As you know, our property market is a very tightly controlled and manipulated one.

↡ Advertisement
Link to post
Share on other sites

So property prices won't crash. It may go back to saner levels but crash? Never. The govt won't let it. As you know, our property market is a very tightly controlled and manipulated one.

 

wat u mean by wont crash? u mean if pple have to fire sale prop to get cash quick during recession, garmen will buy from them at top price?

 

If garmen got such an asset purchase program, r they gona use reserves or print $ n kill d SGD?

Link to post
Share on other sites

wat u mean by wont crash? u mean if pple have to fire sale prop to get cash quick during recession, garmen will buy from them at top price?

 

If garmen got such an asset purchase program, r they gona use reserves or print $ n kill d SGD?

No they just take off the foreigner absd and foreigners rush to buy sg property unless its worldwide financial crisis, then that one will crash hard

Link to post
Share on other sites

wat u mean by wont crash? u mean if pple have to fire sale prop to get cash quick during recession, garmen will buy from them at top price?

 

If garmen got such an asset purchase program, r they gona use reserves or print $ n kill d SGD?

Resale HDB prices are backed and benchmarked by BTO prices.

 

Private condo prices are backed and benchmarked by the most expensive resale HDB prices.

 

Do we agree on that?

 

If we do, then consider this.

 

BTO prices are set by govt.

 

If BTO prices maintain, I don't see how the rest could crash to a level below their backing?

Link to post
Share on other sites

wat u mean by wont crash? u mean if pple have to fire sale prop to get cash quick during recession, garmen will buy from them at top price?

 

If garmen got such an asset purchase program, r they gona use reserves or print $ n kill d SGD?

After 4 years (and counting) of anti-speculator cooling measures, we should not be seeing many fire sales during a recession.

 

Most people who bought in the last 4 years can actually hold.

Link to post
Share on other sites

wah ... is there a possibility for one of the local bank become 2nd Lehman Brother?

 

A ratio beyond 100 per cent means that banks are now lending more than they are taking in.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Resale HDB prices are backed and benchmarked by BTO prices.

 

Private condo prices are backed and benchmarked by the most expensive resale HDB prices.

 

Do we agree on that?

 

If we do, then consider this.

 

BTO prices are set by govt.

 

If BTO prices maintain, I don't see how the rest could crash to a level below their backing?

 

iirc, BTO prices are set by govt but is based on lower end of the surrounding resale HDB prices. Something like that.

in a crash there will be no demand, surround resale HDB prices will drop. And as you mentioned, the condo benchmark will drop. So private will also fall.

 

Govt putting in recent measures to prevent bubble are good moves to control prices.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Where got so many proclaim cash rich? Only cigar sommelier cum table wiper wat.

 

The rest of us just live by the humble adage: No money, don't buy.

Actually. If only a small number of businessmen default and go broke, govt is not worried. So sory your friend's family happened to be one of them.

 

But if the majority of working population and property asset owners go into negative equity because of asset price crash, or working population lost jobs and cannot make the monthly repayments, THEN the govt got huge problem on its hands. Cos it affects banks, stock market, listed companies, SMEs, their employees, the whole chain gang will kena and it goes back again in a circle. More employees lose jobs or pay cut, more cannot make payments, and so on it goes.

 

So the govt also trying very hard not to let it happen.

 

So property prices won't crash. It may go back to saner levels but crash? Never. The govt won't let it. As you know, our property market is a very tightly controlled and manipulated one.

 

Why won't crash? When crash, u think all these rich fellas in MCF will just sit idle? I think fall 20% they all start to conquer Orchard Rd. Then price rise again.

Link to post
Share on other sites

wah ... is there a possibility for one of the local bank become 2nd Lehman Brother?

 

A ratio beyond 100 per cent means that banks are now lending more than they are taking in.

i dont think so, mas rule is tighter than the Central Bank, so the portfolio they own is much more safe than the Lehman. I can imagine if SG banks went bankrupt, the majority of banks in Asia are following suit :D

Link to post
Share on other sites

Why won't crash? When crash, u think all these rich fellas in MCF will just sit idle? I think fall 20% they all start to conquer Orchard Rd. Then price rise again.

hahaha true the bank statement mcf members have not enough space for the 'zeros' [laugh]

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

u dont need to ask that question if u stick to a simple plan: buy low sell high.

 

1yr ago, u almost cldnt find a single bearish prop view on this forum, eg. i used to post abt bearish prop views but got attacked for just sharing my opinions, now seems like more n more bearish views, so 12mths is all it took to change views.

 

again i say dat property is commodity n is subject to external forces on top of basic supply demand.

 

i won't apply bearish and bull approach too much to property cos it's a very stable asset. Long term, property gains. That's an irrefutable trend. One should not invest in property based on views, but on earning power and long term approach.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Why won't crash? When crash, u think all these rich fellas in MCF will just sit idle? I think fall 20% they all start to conquer Orchard Rd. Then price rise again.

 

good for u that u have conviction on wat may happen. for me i dont predict, i prepare n react according to circumstance.

Link to post
Share on other sites

iirc, BTO prices are set by govt but is based on lower end of the surrounding resale HDB prices. Something like that.

in a crash there will be no demand, surround resale HDB prices will drop. And as you mentioned, the condo benchmark will drop. So private will also fall.

 

Govt putting in recent measures to prevent bubble are good moves to control prices.

There will not be a crash because there will always be demand.

 

The 6.9m population will ensure that.

 

Also, BTO supply is manipulated. The govt can always turn off the tap a la Mah Bow Tan style.

 

The resulting drop in supply vs demand in subsequent years will ensure a skyrocketing of HDB prices (and by proxy, private condo prices) like we have seen in the past 10 years.

 

This time it is different, yeah, cos we are gonna have 6.9m people on this tiny island. And the gates are always easy to open again if that's not enough.

Link to post
Share on other sites

good for u that u have conviction on wat may happen. for me i dont predict, i prepare n react according to circumstance.

Your approach may work better in more liquid assets.

 

For property, best to think longer term as it is highly illiquid.

 

Preparing and reacting according to circumstances rarely work to effect in the property market cos the lead times are just too long. Option is 2 weeks. The completion takes 8 to 10 weeks after that. How to do back to back trading? Lots could happen within 3 months.

Link to post
Share on other sites

good for u that u have conviction on wat may happen. for me i dont predict, i prepare n react according to circumstance.

 

Investments based on fundamentals should not be about reaction to circumstance. A very simple example would be Apple's stock. It fell from $200 during Lehman to $80. Panicky investors ran and reacted. Those who invested with a fundamentals mindset and kept the stock saw it rose to a peak of $700. Today's $500 but that's another story.

 

What are fundamentals? Property wise would be...is a country governed well? Does it have sound economic fundamentals? Is location good and so on...And as an individual, must be whether got money or not. I know buying landed property today is good but it's out of my league. If it's within my league, i will buy with absolute confidence. Condo im not so sure unless EC. Good times bad times, there are always good things to invest on.

Link to post
Share on other sites

There will not be a crash because there will always be demand.

 

The 6.9m population will ensure that.

 

Also, BTO supply is manipulated. The govt can always turn off the tap a la Mah Bow Tan style.

 

The resulting drop in supply vs demand in subsequent years will ensure a skyrocketing of HDB prices (and by proxy, private condo prices) like we have seen in the past 10 years.

 

This time it is different, yeah, cos we are gonna have 6.9m people on this tiny island. And the gates are always easy to open again if that's not enough.

 

Property price in a small city will never be cheap. I googled once on USA property price index during Lehman. Remarkably, NYC experienced the smallest dip compared to other parts of US. btw, HK most ex PSF is about 10k. We are around 6k. Squeeze another few million here and those who think price is high now ain't seen nothing yet!

↡ Advertisement
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...