COE - November round 2

[Fastnfaster]

 

I believe other than backside itchy, you also must be rich lo. If you are not rich even backside itchy also cannot cure.

Yes, better do your sum before buying a car, otherwise backside tio burn

[Maseratigood]

Hah, i like tis, when coe is low, most ppl go for new car, even cars can be used for more than 10 years.

 

Too tempted to drive new model liao!

 

In my case unless there is a new model that really interests me in almost all aspects, else i will still prefer a renewal of COE coz my current 7yrs old car are still good and i still enjoy it.

 

But if the numbers dont look good renewal vs new car in the favor of new car, i just have to be rational and get a new one as long there are interesting new cars to choose from as mentioned.

Yes, better do your sum before buying a car, otherwise backside tio burn

 

burnt liao cant feel any itch!!! but painful!! [bigcry]

[Maseratigood]

 

 

what level of drop to you is consider as drop "big time"?... to 50K?? to 40K?? to 30K?? or to 10K?..... at what price point you will renew and not buy new or buy new and not renew??... my guess is very likely you will buy new car if it drops "big time" due to back side itchy.......

 

you know what, backside itchiness can cost $$$ lao-sai big time becoz LTA like to squeeze those whose backside is very itchy...... LTA = Like Tarok Asses (itchy ones)

 

(spell check for the exact word for tarok, aka tekan etc)

 

seriously speaking, the numbers are very important. ie if i have to renew COE at $X, plus losing $Y of scrap value of my current car, add 10yrs of surcharge on road tax say $Z. If $ (X+Y+Z) is more than the 10 year total depreication + roadtax of the new car, maybe i should buy a new car, right?

 

If coe really drop big time, i guess more people will buy new than renew coe. Unless you like your current car very much. Same theory like when during the low coe period, people would change car every 3-4 year.

 

its something like changing handphone every year or two years, the user doesnt lose much but gets to enjoy new phone and full warranty!

 

for cars maybe the turn-around is about 3 years, not the 1 year for phone? assuming COE prices dont go up drastically

[Ahgong]

 

its something like changing handphone every year or two years, the user doesnt lose much but gets to enjoy new phone and full warranty!

 

for cars maybe the turn-around is about 3 years, not the 1 year for phone? assuming COE prices dont go up drastically

 

hmm... i have never done my sums liddat before.

interesting perspective.

[Maseratigood]

 

hmm... i have never done my sums liddat before.

interesting perspective.

I don't do it also but see other owners, who for some reasons need to change their rides often, roll-over this way to own a different cars every 2 to 3 years. I guess they look at costs of car ownership from the perspective of depreciation/installment, as long as these two expenditures stay constant or within their comfort zone, they will change car.

[Mcist]

 

It's interesting to look at the Coe trend... It really tells how many cash rich there are on tis island...

 

During the last few years, many made tons fr property n I believe it helps support the Coe . With the new loan curb , how much longer can the high Coe remains? Though we expect more cars to scrape n increase in Coe quota, aren't we expect equally more potential buyers waiting on the sideline ?

 

I hope the new Coe system works n offer bnb buyers something to consider... Cheers![/

 

I do share similar perspective...

Slowly we are seeing the drop in COE price as property is slowing or almost stalling...

The loan curb will deter maybe about 80% of young buyers & those who take high loan.

How much it will drop really depends on how many high loan buyers... waiting on sidelines

I had see quite a number of these ppl around...

Should be seeing 40k to 50k COE range by March 14

Lets wait & see....

[Achee]

When COE is "low" say $40K to $50K, even cars that are 2 - 3 years (especially those who bought at COE $90K) will be scrapped to obtain refund for unused COE portion. This will serve to expand the already higher supply of COE in 2014/15 and cause COE prices to tumble further. When this happens, those bought with COE at $80K, $70K will again add to the scrappage rate and further expand the COE quota and cause COE prices another round of depreciation.

 

 

 

Hah, i like tis, when coe is low, most ppl go for new car, even cars can be used for more than 10 years.

Too tempted to drive new model liao!

[Throttle2]

For cars with tiny OMV, like $30k or $40k, scrap or renew COE wont make any diff.

Wont lose much, wont gain much.

[Alfc]

 

When COE is "low" say $40K to $50K, even cars that are 2 - 3 years (especially those who bought at COE $90K) will be scrapped to obtain refund for unused COE portion. This will serve to expand the already higher supply of COE in 2014/15 and cause COE prices to tumble further. When this happens, those bought with COE at $80K, $70K will again add to the scrappage rate and further expand the COE quota and cause COE prices another round of depreciation.

 

 

 

Hah, i like tis, when coe is low, most ppl go for new car, even cars can be used for more than 10 years.

 

Too tempted to drive new model liao!

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Assuming the "low" COE happens, more likely people who bought high will be stuck longer with their cars.

How much can one get back for a typical 1 year B&B old car that cost $140k today? COE $72k (90% of $80k COE) + PARF $30k? The 1 year loss is easily $40k.

Can forget about putting up for resale also cos a new car is cheaper.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 24, 2013 by Alfc

[Achee]

 

For example, if CAT A COE drops to $40K, a new Honda Civic may be then selling at $100K.

 

Let's say an owner of a 1-year old Honda Civic who bought at $150K with Cat A COE at $90K and OMV of $18K, the COE/ PARF rebate is estimated at $94.5K. Let's say the body value is worth $10K and he would get back $104.5K by deregistering his car. Using $104.5K he could then buy a brand new Honda Civic and still have a balance of $4.5K.

 

Of course the above example is assuming this owner has no or very little outstanding loan.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 24, 2013 by Achee

[Throttle2]

 

 

 

 

For example, if CAT A COE drops to $40K, a new Honda Civic may be then selling at $100K.

 

Let's say an owner of a 1-year old Honda Civic who bought at $150K with Cat A COE at $90K and OMV of $18K, the COE/ PARF rebate is estimated at $94.5K. Let's say the body value is worth $10K and he would get back $104.5K by deregistering his car. Using $104.5K he could then buy a brand new Honda Civic and still have a balance of $4.5K.

 

Of course the above example is assuming this owner has no or very little outstanding loan.

 

 

 

 

After one year, COE left with $81k body and OMV say $20k.

So he scrap and get $100k max , then he rush to buy new Civic, by which then the COE may have gone up and he may be left with no car...

J

Plus only if he has little outstanding loan and a lot of cash. ...

Too many assumptions liao.

Mathematically possible, but practically impossible.

That also doesnt depart from the fact that he paid $150k for the stupid car.

Only possible good outcome is that he "earns" one year of COE.

But now holds a car with much less paper value for the same $150k which is already gone.....

 

 

 

Compare that to someone who didnt buy when it was $150k.

Buys when it becomes $100k

Instant $50k gain the the pocket! Whhoooooohoooo.

Edited November 24, 2013 by Throttle2

[Hubwee]

You only get back 80& of your COE value if you scrap your ride within the first 2 years . Even if you were to scrap it after 9 months , you only get back 80% .

[Nullifi3d]

Ok all those who have been driving donkey years and now cannot afford the COE please step aside and take public now. More room for me to drive.

[Sdexxxxd]

Yes it true... it will be a vicious cycle....

Let's wait patiently..

 

 

 

 

When COE is "low" say $40K to $50K, even cars that are 2 - 3 years (especially those who bought at COE $90K) will be scrapped to obtain refund for unused COE portion. This will serve to expand the already higher supply of COE in 2014/15 and cause COE prices to tumble further. When this happens, those bought with COE at $80K, $70K will again add to the scrappage rate and further expand the COE quota and cause COE prices another round of depreciation.

 

 

 

 

Hah, i like tis, when coe is low, most ppl go for new car, even cars can be used for more than 10 years.

 

Too tempted to drive new model liao!

[Baal]

Ok all those who have been driving donkey years and now cannot afford the COE please step aside and take public now. More room for me to drive.

Nulli, u sould like miw leh...

 

....back to coe, but all said about people scrapping to make more avail, they will buy a new car after scrap, in this case, demand will still match n outstrip supply. So breakeven only at best? Unless they decide to dish out the open leg policy for coe again like 06-09.

[Gildor8]

by next Feb/Mar, probably drop to $40K

 

Let's look at it more objectively, look at the demand for the limited supply of COE..i.e. how many bidded for the COE...you will know whether the COE will keep decreasing in my opinion.

[Throttle2]

You only get back 80& of your COE value if you scrap your ride within the first 2 years . Even if you were to scrap it after 9 months , you only get back 80% .

Wooohoooo

[Baal]

 

Let's look at it more objectively, look at the demand for the limited supply of COE..i.e. how many bidded for the COE...you will know whether the COE will keep decreasing in my opinion.

feb/mar 2013 40k imo is placing bets on

 

- typical lower bids after CNY

- "uncertainty" period (2-3 mths?) after initial kick in of the 130hp rule.