2014 Aug 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[Quantum]

even if LTA reserved some (eg. 15%) for dry season, there will still b plenty of COE to b recycled soon.

if u look closely to the mthly figures in the link below, the current dereg of 2400-2700 per mth shld increase to 4000-5000 in abt 6 mths' time.

by then, the COE Premium remains high or not will depend v much on the number of willing buyers with plenty of cash.

Source: M01-03M-Age.pdf

wah, bro yo2020,

tot you'r working for LTA

even LAT scholer never put so much effort on COE analysis,

wonder have you bought car or going to change car?

anyway appreciate you provided comprehensive information

[Wt_know]

haha ... yoyo gonna plot till 2020 ... that's his conviction to track coe ... lol

 

wah, bro yo2020,

tot you'r working for LTA

even LAT scholer never put so much effort on COE analysis,

wonder have you bought car or going to change car?

anyway appreciate you provided comprehensive information

 

[Dinobros]

yoyo is coming out with his dissertation for his PHD in COE.

We will have our own in house analyst

 

haha ... yoyo gonna plot till 2020 ... that's his conviction to track coe ... lol

 

 

 

[Heartlander]

 

Those 100k people paid $15k only for their COEs. You expect 100% of them (which is going to be the bulk of the new buyers) to pay $70k for their new COEs with 50% down payment? This logic in my view is at best supported if salary increases a lot.

How you know a lot of those people cannot afford more than $15k back then.

[Lincoln]

How you know a lot of those people cannot afford more than $15k back then.

 

The correct word to use is willingness to pay. Anyone who can buy a car can afford $15k.

 

The ones who are hanging on to these old cars (i.e. the 150k in the 8-10th year car owners folks) are not willing to pay current COE prices. These people are likely to be original car owners OR second hand buyers who are still hanging on to these old cars. If they are willing to pay the higher prices, they are already in the Year 2014 group or had already changed and their old cars are now owned by another cost-conscious folks.

 

That's why, when the folks are scrapping in the next 1-2 year or near future, they will enter the marker only when the price is right/lower than $70k or exit totally. Thus, the demand is not quite the same demand we see today. The new demand in the future are going to be make up by the more cost-conscious folks. The cost-savvy people are buying later and they will be the bulk buyers in the future. Thus, we have the perfect storm of largely mass market car buyers and larger supply. The only effect is for COE price to go down.

Edited August 22, 2014 by Lincoln

[KKTAN]

 

The correct word to use is willingness to pay. Anyone who can buy a car can afford $15k.

 

The ones who are hanging on to these old cars (i.e. the 150k in the 8-10th year car owners folks) are not willing to pay current COE prices. These people are likely to be original car owners OR second hand buyers who are still hanging on to these old cars. If they are willing to pay the higher prices, they are already in the Year 2014 group or had already changed and their old cars are now owned by another cost-conscious folks.

 

That's why, when the folks are scrapping in the next 1-2 year or near future, they will enter the marker only when the price is right/lower than $70k or exit totally. Thus, the demand is not quite the same demand we see today. The new demand in the future are going to be make up by the more cost-conscious folks. The cost-savvy people are buying later and they will be the bulk buyers in the future. Thus, we have the perfect storm of largely mass market car buyers and larger supply. The only effect is for COE price to go down.

 

Very in depth analysis and hope you are right or else it could just be just all a perception.

 

There are many factors that may affect COE prices and many buyers COE commitment threshold are different.

 

When COE goes down , many buyers who had bought car at higher COE will also come in to add to the COE crunch to buy luxury cars that were out of their reach earlier.

 

I

[rocketmanic]

owning car & using car all the time not same, road congest due to latter just to be fair to all

[yo2020]

Very in depth analysis and hope you are right or else it could just be just all a perception.

There are many factors that may affect COE prices and many buyers COE commitment threshold are different.

When COE goes down , many buyers who had bought car at higher COE will also come in to add to the COE crunch to buy luxury cars that were out of their reach earlier.

when COE is down, those cars with high COE will likely suffer great lost if sell or scrap.

but if these owners r having deep pocket, then it's not a real concern to them.

then the question will become, do we hv many of such owners in sg??

 

[Si4dr]

owning car & using car all the time not same, road congest due to latter just to be fair to all

 

Seldom using --> want to own a car for what? Push up COE only.

 

Using car all the time mean he really need a car. Fair to him to get a car.

[Mcist]

Many SME boss in singapore are diploma... Diploma POWER

the academia discuss about COE, Boss think of how to make more $$$

 

LOL - Anyway you look at the COE thread, if we combine the monthly thread on COE into a single thread.

This may be the longest thread in mycarforum. See the impact to social life in Singapore?

 

 

 

Not me I guess.... Keke

If I am then I won't be here in forum liao

Busy genging how to make $$$

[darth_vader_]

0.5% annual vehicle growth.

0.5 % of 1,000,000 vehicles = 5000 new coe every year.

this is why coe is so high.

[Chucky2007]

 

so is LTA gona make d same mistake again?

apparently not.. Else they wouldn't hold back releasing more Coe when more cars are scrapped. They are eating the whole cake.. Another 1billion Coe revenue windfall for 2014, and also reducing vehicle populations, plus more ridership on the public transport.. Tuck yew is the smartest transport guy in the past 10 years.

[Chucky2007]

0.5% annual vehicle growth.

0.5 % of 1,000,000 vehicles = 5000 new coe every year.

this is why coe is so high.

actually this is the part that's mind boggling.. They say they wanna "grow" at 0.5%.. But if the scrap cars are 20000 a year, and the Coe released is less than that, how to "grow"?

[Throttle2]

Well be renewing my COE soon.

$67k throw to the govt, for dont know what f**k!

 

Damn it.

But i love my old small beat up car too much to export

[yo2020]

Well be renewing my COE soon.

$67k throw to the govt, for dont know what f**k!

Damn it.

But i love my old small beat up car too much to export

thank you for your contribution to tax n economy...

[Wt_know]

who say car is expensive in spore?

less than $500/mth ... everyone can drive

Edited August 22, 2014 by Wt_know

[Bigtoothpick]

 

The correct word to use is willingness to pay. Anyone who can buy a car can afford $15k.

 

The ones who are hanging on to these old cars (i.e. the 150k in the 8-10th year car owners folks) are not willing to pay current COE prices. These people are likely to be original car owners OR second hand buyers who are still hanging on to these old cars. If they are willing to pay the higher prices, they are already in the Year 2014 group or had already changed and their old cars are now owned by another cost-conscious folks.

 

That's why, when the folks are scrapping in the next 1-2 year or near future, they will enter the marker only when the price is right/lower than $70k or exit totally. Thus, the demand is not quite the same demand we see today. The new demand in the future are going to be make up by the more cost-conscious folks. The cost-savvy people are buying later and they will be the bulk buyers in the future. Thus, we have the perfect storm of largely mass market car buyers and larger supply. The only effect is for COE price to go down.

I share your views. It's not so much affordability I suspect.. More, like you said, that by and large people today are still quite unwilling to put down a large amount of hard-earned money based on COE prices now.

[Quantum]

who say car is expensive in spore?

less than $500/mth ... everyone can drive

after 50% downpayment,

still balance $500/pmX120months=60k, who say not expensive