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Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota


yo2020
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Today sat in a new prius grabcar, sibeh nice n comfy

 

 

wah your post very deep  [scholar]

 

got me thinking long and hard on what is the hidden relationship to COE quota 

 

 

:D  :D  :D

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http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/private-car-numbers-fall-to-eight-year-low

 

Somehow, the initial news of an increase quoto might bring some joy, but it seems that long term the trend is actually a reduction in numbers:

 

 

 

Car population down 4% as the total number of vehicles shrinks for third straight year
Senior Transport Correspondent
 
 

Singapore's vehicle population, led by cars, has shrunk for the third consecutive year.

According to statistics released by the Land Transport Authority this week, there were 956,430 vehicles on the road as of Dec 31 last year. This is about 0.1 per cent lower than in 2015, and 1.8 per cent lower than the peak in 2013.

The private car population fell by 4 per cent to 552,427 - the lowest in eight years. Observers attribute the fall to a clawback of certificates of entitlement (COEs) in the early 2010s to correct an earlier oversupply.

The contraction is also attributed to a near-zero allowable yearly growth rate instituted for the COE system. This growth cap has been lowered systematically in recent years - from 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent in 2009, then to 1 per cent in 2012, 0.5 per cent in 2013 and 0.25 per cent since 2015.

There is usually a lag between the time a car is scrapped and a new COE is recycled back into the system. Previous growth rates were able to mask this lag, but not the near-zero cap in place now.

 
 

SIM University economist Walter Theseira said: "Given the policy goal to keep vehicle growth minimal or even static in the future, the expectation clearly is that reliance on public transport, as well as on private-hire vehicles and taxis, must increase to satisfy transport demand with a growing population."

 

 

st_20170121_ctshrunk21_2889378.jpg

 

 

 

The trend is underscored by a spike in rental car numbers. Last year, their population grew 75 per cent to a record 51,336. The figure has grown by over three times since ride-hailing apps Uber and Grab entered the market in 2013.

REALITY CHECK

For some people, this may be an unfair outcome as they may need the car more than those who have the means to own one. However, with an improving standard of public transport, this pain point might be softened.

NANYANG BUSINESS SCHOOL ADJUNCT ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR ZAFAR MOMIN, on the reality that not everyone's aspirations for owning a car can be fulfilled.

Kah Motor general manager Nicholas Wong said private-hire cars "have displaced private passenger cars as well as taxis".

Statistics show that the taxi population has fallen by 2.6 per cent to a five-year low of 27,534. Mr Wong said the private passenger car population could continue to shrink.

But transport consultant Bruno Wildermuth said that should be the way to go. "For Singapore to become 'car-lite', the number of cars has to decrease, and cars must be used less. Currently, because of the high cost of owning a car, many drivers use the car even when it makes little or no sense."

To counter this, he said, COE expiry should be pegged to mileage clocked by a car instead of years.

Dr Theseira said the ramp-up of bus services and rail infrastructure "will meet reasonable growth in demand" for transport.

"However, the public transport system clearly cannot satisfy demand for private transport as a status symbol," he noted. "The public transport system also does not completely satisfy the transport needs of groups such as young families and the elderly, and professions with irregular travel patterns.

"Private transport will continue to be a key part of our transport system for many years to come."

Motorcycles - another form of private transport - have dwindled in numbers too. Last year, the population fell to 143,052, its lowest in 10 years. This has put a squeeze on motorbike COE supply, which sent prices beyond the reach of many low-income earners who rely on two-wheelers.

Experts said it is not possible for Singapore to meet everyone's private transport aspirations.

Nanyang Business School adjunct associate professor Zafar Momin said: "For some people, this may be an unfair outcome as they may need the car more than those who have the means to own one. 

"However, with an improving standard of public transport, this pain point might be softened."

 

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I had said b4, very likely to drop to 900k vehicles

I also have said it before, car population was on the decline, but some strange people will come out to argue by saying cannot be, government already said zero growth, 0.x% growth etc etc. Fact is statistic is showing decline.
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if I remember correctly, coe quota for 2006 and 2007 are quite similar. so in theory, we should not expect a big drop (>10k coe price drop etc) like in the past year to year comparison. After this phase, good luck when the coe famine period begin again

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if I remember correctly, coe quota for 2006 and 2007 are quite similar. so in theory, we should not expect a big drop (>10k coe price drop etc) like in the past year to year comparison. After this phase, good luck when the coe famine period begin again

Cat B unlikely to drop >10k. But Cat A may if without(or with less) the interference of the PH. But even so, there wont be drastic drop. Edited by Ct3833
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"Coe expiry pegged to mileage clocked by car". Wow...

What if I drive in Malaysia more than on Singapore road?

Buy MY car LOL.
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Supercharged

Buy MY car LOL.

there's no reason to track mileage when overseas as it does not contribute to local congestion
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COEs extended for record number of vehicles

 

Certificates of entitlement (COE) for a record 44,303 vehicles were revalidated last year, with cars making up the bulk of the extensions.

The latest data released by the Land Transport Authority (LTA) showed 29,531 car COEs, 8,850 commercial vehicle COEs and 5,922 motorcycle COEs were revalidated last year.

This exceeded the previous record in 2007, when COEs for 33,339 vehicles - close to 90 per cent being commercial vehicles - were revalidated.

.....

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/coes-extended-for-record-number-of-vehicles

post-15968-0-39904500-1488241516_thumb.jpg

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COEs extended for record number of vehicles

Certificates of entitlement (COE) for a record 44,303 vehicles were revalidated last year, with cars making up the bulk of the extensions.

The latest data released by the Land Transport Authority (LTA) showed 29,531 car COEs, 8,850 commercial vehicle COEs and 5,922 motorcycle COEs were revalidated last year.

This exceeded the previous record in 2007, when COEs for 33,339 vehicles - close to 90 per cent being commercial vehicles - were revalidated.

.....

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/coes-extended-for-record-number-of-vehicles

Goods vehicle has no parf value

Makes perfect sense to renew coe

When the govt made it such that lorries has no parf value, they had already expected owners to renew coe

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Interesting quote: 


 


The COEs of more than 13,000 commercial vehicles will be expiring by next month.


Mr Lim of Tan Chong said: "Even if one-third are scrapped, it will result in 4,000 fresh COEs coming back into the system. That is four times the current supply. It will be interesting to see what happens."


Edited by TangoElite
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Jan 2017 the deregistration figures for Cat A & B are a tad lesser than the average number for the period between Oct - Dec 2016.

Edited by Akula
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Jan 2017 the deregistration figures for Cat A & B are a tad lesser than the average number for the period between Oct - Dec 2016.

Quite high for jan actually. And taxi dereg is quite high also.
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