Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota

[Ben5266]

The number of vehicles has not been dropping since Apr 2016.  We will looking at another round of COE cut.

 

Not forgetting Hui Ge SAID car lite.

 

My guess is no of vehicles will drop to 900k some days.

May- 36002 -2005

Jun- 38353 -2351

Jul- 40604 -2251

Aug- 43462 -2858

Sep- 45917 -2455

Oct- 48150 -2233

Nov- 49785 -1635

Rental cars continues to increase. But the pace is reducing.

Maybe 1200 in Dec and < 1000 from Jan.

Then has chance for the COE premium to go down further in Feb 1st bid.

As CNY hong bao.

Hold your check book for another 30 days.

Edited December 23, 2016 by Ben5266

[flashbang]

All the 5 year renewals will help to naturally even out the COE price. Market forces has helped LTA to smooth out COE prices aka revenue, have to admit it looks like a well thought out move by LTA back then to say "no COE clawbacks".

[Winningeleven]

Agreed! Govt no need to do anything. Since the cost of coe is average 3 times more than what it cost in 2006-2007. They are easily collecting at least 3 billions a year from the coe. Whether the total car population is 950k, 900k or 750k. When all of them choose to drive in between the peak hour 7am to 10am and 4pm to 8pm. It is still heavy traffic and jam.

 

I uses to drive a lot due to my work and what I observed most of the roads traffic are quite smooth outside the hours that I stated earlier on. With the implementation of satellite charging in 2021. Have to plan ahead on the right time to drive the car if we have to reduce the usage cost.

Edited December 23, 2016 by Winningeleven

[Matrix0405]

All the 5 year renewals will help to naturally even out the COE price. Market forces has helped LTA to smooth out COE prices aka revenue, have to admit it looks like a well thought out move by LTA back then to say "no COE clawbacks".

 

 

Agree. High dereg + lower revalidation, the supply is going to be high for next Q.

[Winningeleven]

Agree. High dereg + lower revalidation, the supply is going to be high for next Q.

Probably we will see about 5 to 10% increase supply quota increase for the next year 2017 Feb to Apr as compared to Nov Dec and 2017 Jan. I guess 2000+-50. Currently the quota per bidding is about 1900+-50.

[Sktan10]

Agree. High dereg + lower revalidation, the supply is going to be high for next Q.

If Coe remains 50k+-,more people will renew Coe.And every year there are people renew Coe la!How the supply high?

Unless you and me don't drive then market got 2 extra coe.

[inlinesix]

May- 36002 -2005

Jun- 38353 -2351

Jul- 40604 -2251

Aug- 43462 -2858

Sep- 45917 -2455

Oct- 48150 -2233

Nov- 49785 -1635

Rental cars continues to increase. But the pace is reducing.

Maybe 1200 in Dec and < 1000 from Jan.

Then has chance for the COE premium to go down further in Feb 1st bid.

As CNY hong bao.

Hold your check book for another 30 days.

Quota will go down further in next revision. Rem car lite

Probably we will see about 5 to 10% increase supply quota increase for the next year 2017 Feb to Apr as compared to Nov Dec and 2017 Jan. I guess 2000+-50. Currently the quota per bidding is about 1900+-50.

Unlikely. The no of vehicles is not reducing. My guess is vehicle population has to drop to 900k.

[Ct3833]

Total deregistration over the last three months(sep, oct, nov) has increased by about 1.7% over the previous 3 months(jun, jul, aug), so if any, at best expect 1.7% more assuming no further cut in quota.

[Axela72]

If Coe remains 50k+-,more people will renew Coe.And every year there are people renew Coe la!How the supply high?

Unless you and me don't drive then market got 2 extra coe.

Does that imply those whom hope coe price drop is by having less coe renewer and those whom give up to renew coe also give up their ride?

 

If it is true, Isnt that a selfish act for own gain?

[Akula]

Total deregistration over the last three months(sep, oct, nov) has increased by about 1.7% over the previous 3 months(jun, jul, aug), so if any, at best expect 1.7% more assuming no further cut in quota.

Correct me if I am wrong,

Deregistrations are taken every quarterly, Jan - Mar, Apr - Jun, Jul - Sep & Oct - Dec.

With a lead time of a month, the quarterly quota are set at May - Jul, Aug - Oct, Nov - Jan (currently) and Feb - Apr.

Based on figures in Oct/Nov AND Assuming Dec figures are similar, could be seeing a quota increase of about 5-10% for cars.

[Arch1984]

Should be more than last round by 10+%. Dec dereg numbers tend to be quite high.

[Sktan10]

Does that imply those whom hope coe price drop is by having less coe renewer and those whom give up to renew coe also give up their ride?

 

If it is true, Isnt that a selfish act for own gain?

Haha,maybe?

And when one drive during coe is cheap till now should be nearly 10yrs.If coe drop,just nice for change car.

And will you give up your car? I believe no,right?And if your answer is no,then others will be the same,so coe how to drop much?

You can afford,new.I cannot afford,renew.coe is always in demand.

If 20% more car scrap this year,meaning to say,another 20% of people will be looking for car also including you and me,right?Neither new or renew,still need to take up one piece of coe.

Maybe,I just say only la,if coe is cheap,maybe I will buy another car for my wife and this will push up the coe price again cos becomes everyone can afford.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Sktan10

[Dafansu]

Haha,maybe?

And when one drive during coe is cheap till now should be nearly 10yrs.If coe drop,just nice for change car.

And will you give up your car? I believe no,right?And if your answer is no,then others will be the same,so coe how to drop much?

You can afford,new.I cannot afford,renew.coe is always in demand.

If 20% more car scrap this year,meaning to say,another 20% of people will be looking for car also including you and me,right?Neither new or renew,still need to take up one piece of coe.

Maybe,I just say only la,if coe is cheap,maybe I will buy another car for my wife and this will push up the coe price again cos becomes everyone can afford.

 

A major consideration for these people will be the down payment. When they purchase during cheap COEs almost 10 years back the down payment is 0%, now need to down at least 30-40%. Some might not have this amount of cash, also one reason why many go to the private hire route. 

[Axela72]

A major consideration for these people will be the down payment. When they purchase during cheap COEs almost 10 years back the down payment is 0%, now need to down at least 30-40%. Some might not have this amount of cash, also one reason why many go to the private hire route.

Huh? After 10 yrs of saving or salary increment, this group of folk still cant afford the downpayment? Then isnt it if they talk about economic crisis, coe price will go down, they should be the one that get hit 1st?

[Wt_know]

the arguement of no cash for downpayment is a flaw

1. definitely a lot can make payment

2. there is always a Uber route

3. if one die die want to buy car ... downpayment aint gonna stop the buyer

 

you must understand ... buying car is not a need ... it's a WANT ... buyer will find way to get it

 

even have to eat roti and drink tap water ...

Edited December 25, 2016 by Wt_know

[Ct3833]

the arguement of no cash for downpayment is a flaw

1. definitely a lot can make payment

2. there is always a Uber route

3. if one die die want to buy car ... downpayment aint gonna stop the buyer

 

you must understand ... buying car is not a need ... it's a WANT ... buyer will find way to get it

 

even have to eat roti and drink tap water ...

Agree. Especially now downoayment has been reduced to 30%. There are even 10% package in the market. And due to the limited amount of COE each bid, there are more than enough people could afford down payment easily. Those desperately wanting a car but struggling for downpayment are minority.

[Axela72]

the arguement of no cash for downpayment is a flaw

1. definitely a lot can make payment

2. there is always a Uber route

3. if one die die want to buy car ... downpayment aint gonna stop the buyer

 

you must understand ... buying car is not a need ... it's a WANT ... buyer will find way to get it

 

even have to eat roti and drink tap water ...

Again, so what does this group of folk keep highlighting quoting economic crsis , coe pric will drop then motive?

 

Isnt it either stingy aka not willing to pay at so call high price to them or, they will defence themselves that they are just prudent?

[Sktan10]

A major consideration for these people will be the down payment. When they purchase during cheap COEs almost 10 years back the down payment is 0%, now need to down at least 30-40%. Some might not have this amount of cash, also one reason why many go to the private hire route.

 

 

Down payment is the main factor.

That's why I said,some can afford will go new.Those can't afford or do not want to commit new car will go renew coe.

No matter how,still need to take up one coe.That's why I wonder how coe going to down if you,me and other new driver flight for same amount of coe.