Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota

[Dafansu]

Down payment is the main factor.

That's why I said,some can afford will go new.Those can't afford or do not want to commit new car will go renew coe.

No matter how,still need to take up one coe.That's why I wonder how coe going to down if you,me and other new driver flight for same amount of coe.

 

yes don't understand why it will down. like to share this every time there are such discussions. Maybe will hover at range of 30k to 50k in the coming year. 

 

Prevailing Quota Premium

 

Cat A

Jan 2014: 76109

June 2014: 71672

Jan 2015: 65607

June 2015: 66107

Jan 2016: 56633

Nov 2016: 51641

Dec 2016: 51271

 

 

Cat B

Jan 2014: 82333

June 2014: 76872

Jan 2015: 72726

June 2015: 74629

Jan 2016: 58615

Nov 2016: 56053

Dec 2016: 55187

 

 

Edited December 25, 2016 by Dafansu

[Sktan10]

Huh? After 10 yrs of saving or salary increment, this group of folk still cant afford the downpayment? Then isnt it if they talk about economic crisis, coe price will go down, they should be the one that get hit 1st?

 

 

Haha,you will be surprise when comes to saving.

Coe will down but will bounce back very quickly.

Now 50k+-,still people buy.Just imagine,if coe 20k or 30k,you think how many people will buy?This group of folks will rush in and push up the price fast.If coe back to 2008/09 10k+-,I will buy one for my wife,haha!

[Ct3833]

yes don't understand why it will down. like to share this every time there's such discussions. Maybe will hover at range of 30k to 50k. 

 

Cat A

Jan 2014: 76109

June 2014: 71672

Jan 2015: 65607

June 2015: 66107

Jan 2016: 56633

Nov 2016: 51641

Dec 2016: 51271

I like to use data trend as well but we must also look at the surrounding factors that are causing those outcomes. The one important piece of information is the COE quota during those period and I am providing the yearly available COE for cars below for reference. If assuming 2017 is going to have the same amount of COE quota as 2016, which is already high, then would COE drop drastically further assuming no negative intervention from the government?  With that, I think $40k range COE  is a reasonable guess.

 

yearly COE quota

2014 - about 28k

2015 - about 57k

2016 - about 90k

2017 - ?

[Sktan10]

Agree. Especially now downoayment has been reduced to 30%. There are even 10% package in the market. And due to the limited amount of COE each bid, there are more than enough people could afford down payment easily. Those desperately wanting a car but struggling for downpayment are minority.

 

 

 

Exactly!coe is always in demand.

Coe will drop only if nobody buy.

I cannot afford down payment doesn't means others can't.

[merc280v6]

I would like to see MAS raise the minimum loan to 40-50%, for more-controlled, de-leveraged prudence

[Dafansu]

I like to use data trend as well but we must also look at the surrounding factors that are causing those outcomes. The one important piece of information is the COE quota during those period and I am providing the yearly available COE for cars below for reference. If assuming 2017 is going to have the same amount of COE quota as 2016, which is already high, then would COE drop drastically further assuming no negative intervention from the government?  With that, I think $40k range COE  is a reasonable guess.

 

yearly COE quota

2014 - about 28k

2015 - about 57k

2016 - about 90k

2017 - ?

 

Very reasonable, in fact I expect it to be lower this year if not for the changes to MAS down payment policy and private hire interference. Maybe next year will hover in range of $30 to $40 bearing any change to policy. Hope for a crash lol. Private Hire seems to be slowly down their bids. 

 

More data

vehicle age 8 to 9: 95,996 (16.0%)

vehicle age 9 to 10: 99,087 (16.5%)

Total: 32.5% of car population

 

[therock]

Those without COE will pray it comes down.. then even if they don't need a car they will get one .. for wife, brother, son and anyone else

Those with means will wish the loan restrictions increase so there are less people competing for the COE.

Those with cars will hope COE goes down so they can renew.

 

Car dealers give 10k down bids and all kinds of buyers are drawn out of the woodwork.

 

Bonus, recession proof jobs and people who simply don't worry about the looming recession or work in jobs that have a steady income are all waiting to pounce.

 

And we wonder why prices tend to hover around 50k

[Club21z]

Buy car is like going supermarket buy veg gocery, should not allow loan mah. Cash and carry. Then coe will be low low low wahaha. Why make things so complicated ...

[Inspiring1804]

Sharing the below info I read from an article below in July 2016 for recap.

------

Mr Zaqy Mohamad asked the Minister for Transport

 

a. whether LTA will consider limiting the categories that private hire cars and taxi companies can bid for COEs as against individual car owners;

 

b. whether LTA will consider segregating COE bidding between individual owners and companies including car dealers on behalf of individual buyers; and

 

c. whether LTA has studied the impact of separating COE pricing from new car purchases.

 

Mr Lim Biow Chuan asked the Minister for Transport whether the Ministry will take out private hire car firms like Uber and Grab Taxi from the COE bidding process and treat them similar to taxi operators so that the COE system is not distorted by their bids for COEs.

 

Reply by Minister for Transport Khaw Boon Wan:

 

1. Today, taxi operators do not bid at COE auctions. They draw their COEs from CAT E and pay the CAT A Prevailing Quota Premium. In this way, the impact of the growth and replacement of the taxi fleet, which can be lumpy, is isolated to CAT E.

 

2. As for the private hire car sector, we will continue to monitor its rate of growth and uptake of COEs, to see if a similar measure will be appropriate.

 

3. There is nothing that prevents individuals from bidding for COEs on their own. However, most choose to have dealers bid on their behalf, for convenience and also because of the way some dealers package the prices of the cars. We have no plans to segregate individual and proxy bids since ultimately, both emanate from the same demand. Segregating them will be artificial and give a distortionary picture.

 

4. Buying a car is a transaction between a willing seller and a willing buyer. Most car dealers will offer prices without COEs if asked. It is best that we leave it to the market to decide how car sales should be carried out, whether with the COEs packaged or not.

-------

Also I read an article in May 2016 that uber has close to 2000 cars at the moment (May 2016) n their bidding for Coe is anticipated/expected to be tapering off soon.

 

Does anyone has any source of info that roughly how many Coe is uber looking to have?

 

I read no news about grab.m

[Jp66]

I would love to see a new category for taxi and private hire cars  

 

Go back to old system, all private cars registered under SZ plate

Edited December 25, 2016 by Jp66

[Axela72]

I would love to see a new category for taxi and private hire cars

 

Go back to old system, all private cars registered under SZ plate

Why not? All they need to do is to minus aways of the quote from cat A and B to made room for these private hirer cat quota. End of the day, ppls still doesnt able to gain from the benefit on removing them out. In fact is it even worst as the cat A & B quota become lower permanently . LoL

[Ct3833]

Correct me if I am wrong,

Deregistrations are taken every quarterly, Jan - Mar, Apr - Jun, Jul - Sep & Oct - Dec.

With a lead time of a month, the quarterly quota are set at May - Jul, Aug - Oct, Nov - Jan (currently) and Feb - Apr.

Based on figures in Oct/Nov AND Assuming Dec figures are similar, could be seeing a quota increase of about 5-10% for cars.

pardon my mistake, you have pointed out the months correctly. But I look at the data again, no way to have 5%-10% increase in quota, unless the deregistration for Dec increase  by 2,000 more than average , which is impossible. 

[Ct3833]

I would love to see a new category for taxi and private hire cars  

 

Go back to old system, all private cars registered under SZ plate

Agree with you but we know it wont happen. Some people may say this is a zero sum game and the equivalent amount of COE will be taken from CAT A and B pool to cater for the hire cars. In reality there is significant difference simply because the COE bidding behavior between PH and dealers are very different.

For PH companies, they will bid for COE at any price to ensure they will secure COE. The need to ensure they put their car on the road asap. The quicker they put a car on the road, they sooner they will make money. Cost wise, they just have to  pass it to the hirers as part of rental price. 

For dealers, they will bid COE at a price that allowing them to  secure their COEs yet low enough for them to make extra few thousands before the rebate level. The end result is they wont bid as aggressively as PH to secure COE. 

 

SO yes, by segregating PH and private car COE do have effect to the private car COE price. 

[Akula]

pardon my mistake, you have pointed out the months correctly. But I look at the data again, no way to have 5%-10% increase in quota, unless the deregistration for Dec increase by 2,000 more than average , which is impossible.

Dunno what data you looking at, but the avg number of deregistration for Oct/Nov (only 2 months) is already higher than the avg number of Jul/Sep. so Dec de-reg do not need to increase by substantial to have the nett increase. It just have to be similar to the months of Oct/Nov.

All shall be revealed in about 15 days time.

[Sktan10]

Sharing the below info I read from an article below in July 2016 for recap.

------

Mr Zaqy Mohamad asked the Minister for Transport

 

a. whether LTA will consider limiting the categories that private hire cars and taxi companies can bid for COEs as against individual car owners;

 

b. whether LTA will consider segregating COE bidding between individual owners and companies including car dealers on behalf of individual buyers; and

 

c. whether LTA has studied the impact of separating COE pricing from new car purchases.

 

Mr Lim Biow Chuan asked the Minister for Transport whether the Ministry will take out private hire car firms like Uber and Grab Taxi from the COE bidding process and treat them similar to taxi operators so that the COE system is not distorted by their bids for COEs.

 

Reply by Minister for Transport Khaw Boon Wan:

 

1. Today, taxi operators do not bid at COE auctions. They draw their COEs from CAT E and pay the CAT A Prevailing Quota Premium. In this way, the impact of the growth and replacement of the taxi fleet, which can be lumpy, is isolated to CAT E.

 

2. As for the private hire car sector, we will continue to monitor its rate of growth and uptake of COEs, to see if a similar measure will be appropriate.

 

3. There is nothing that prevents individuals from bidding for COEs on their own. However, most choose to have dealers bid on their behalf, for convenience and also because of the way some dealers package the prices of the cars. We have no plans to segregate individual and proxy bids since ultimately, both emanate from the same demand. Segregating them will be artificial and give a distortionary picture.

 

4. Buying a car is a transaction between a willing seller and a willing buyer. Most car dealers will offer prices without COEs if asked. It is best that we leave it to the market to decide how car sales should be carried out, whether with the COEs packaged or not.

-------

Also I read an article in May 2016 that uber has close to 2000 cars at the moment (May 2016) n their bidding for Coe is anticipated/expected to be tapering off soon.

 

Does anyone has any source of info that roughly how many Coe is uber looking to have?

 

I read no news about grab.m

 

 

 

 

If uber stop bidding,coe will drop.

When coe drop,many new comers will also rush in since it is good time to book and own a new car.Suddenly you will see your motorbikes friends becomes car owner.And your neighbour suddenly got one extra car for his wife.

Coe will drop but won't drop that much.

[inlinesix]

With total vehicle population not going down, COE quota will go down further.

[Ct3833]

Dunno what data you looking at, but the avg number of deregistration for Oct/Nov (only 2 months) is already higher than the avg number of Jul/Sep. so Dec de-reg do not need to increase by substantial to have the nett increase. It just have to be similar to the months of Oct/Nov.

All shall be revealed in about 15 days time.

I used  total car deregistered from Jul to Sep, vs total deregistration for Oct, Nov. The total of the preceding 3 months(Jul -Sep) is 28,196 whereas total for Oct and Nov is 19,275.  For the coming quota to increase by 5%, Dec would  need to have 10,331 cars deregistered . For a 10% increase, Dec would need to have 11,741 cars deregistered. 5% may be possible but 10% is quite far fetched. 

 

Jul    9,534

Aug  9,295

Sep  9,367

Total 28,196 

 

Oct  9,440

Nov  9,835

Total 19,275

 

[Ben5266]

If uber stop bidding,coe will drop.

When coe drop,many new comers will also rush in since it is good time to book and own a new car.Suddenly you will see your motorbikes friends becomes car owner.And your neighbour suddenly got one extra car for his wife.

Coe will drop but won't drop that much.

What you say is correct. But those who jump in to buy when COE is cheap, can only afford cheap COE.

So, COE might go up but there is a ceiling.