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Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota

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Twincharged

:TT_TT: No, out-bid by $6.

What a waste. Next bid coincide with motorshow, COE might be competitive but hope they will get you your COE in the next 1 or 2 rounds. All the best!
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Hypersonic
Car COE supply to grow by 11.6% for Feb-April quota period: LTA

 

 

SINGAPORE - There will be more certificates of entitlement (COEs) for the February-April quota period.

 

 

The Land Transport Authority announced Thursday (Jan 19) morning that there will be on average 8,795 COEs available each month during the period, up 8.9 per cent from the current period.

.....

 

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/car-coe-supply-to-grow-by-116-for-feb-april-quota-period-lta

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Supercharged

Correct me if I am wrong,

Deregistrations are taken every quarterly, Jan - Mar, Apr - Jun, Jul - Sep & Oct - Dec.

With a lead time of a month, the quarterly quota are set at May - Jul, Aug - Oct, Nov - Jan (currently) and Feb - Apr.

Based on figures in Oct/Nov AND Assuming Dec figures are similar, could be seeing a quota increase of about 5-10% for cars.

Pretty spot on.....

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5th Gear (edited)

Car COE supply to grow by 11.6% for Feb-April quota period: LTA

 

 

SINGAPORE - There will be more certificates of entitlement (COEs) for the February-April quota period.

 

 

The Land Transport Authority announced Thursday (Jan 19) morning that there will be on average 8,795 COEs available each month during the period, up 8.9 per cent from the current period.

.....

 

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/car-coe-supply-to-grow-by-116-for-feb-april-quota-period-lta

 

 LTA imply, lite-car society is bulls**t

chiong ...

Edited by MQX87511

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2nd Gear

10% of all deregistered vehicles goes to open categories... these r usually used for big cars... over time, there will be less B&B cars, less bikes and less commercial vehicles,,, n we see more towkay cars on the road!

 

greatest impact will be the bikes... every year total population will reduce by almost 10%

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5th Gear

Cars + Rental cars is dropping what

never felt any relieve of traffic congestion lah, instead become deteriorated

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Supersonic

never felt any relieve of traffic congestion lah, instead become deteriorated

 

Traffic condition can be affected by a lot of other reasons.

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Supersonic

school, school and school .... 1 and only reason ! [mad]

 

Traffic condition can be affected by a lot of other reasons.

 

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2nd Gear

Haha, as I mention in my earlier post on the prediction of the COE, the result is out liao, so the data is correct, the quota have gone up, it prove it is all black and white [thumbsup]

 

Want to start a topic to get view from different brother here, what do you think the quota and trend will be for Feb-April.

 

I have some data from LTA to kick off the discussion.

 

Below is what I have post in another topic

 

https://www.lta.gov....llocationRV.pdf

 

This is the link of how they calculate the quota, 

 

https://www.lta.gov....eg_by_Quota.pdf

 

This is the link showing the de-register of the car of Oct.

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/Monthly_COE_Revalidation.pdf

 

This is the link of the COE Revalidation for SEP.

 

 

 

If Nov and Dec de-register keep the same amount, we should see a increase in quota, why got people say is not possible, it is all in black and white. Let wait and see who is correct in Jan when LTA release the quota.

 

 

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4th Gear

never felt any relieve of traffic congestion lah, instead become deteriorated

 

Got la. PIE peak hour better now. 

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6th Gear

Today sat in a new prius grabcar, sibeh nice n comfy

 

 

wah your post very deep  [scholar]

 

got me thinking long and hard on what is the hidden relationship to COE quota 

 

 

:D  :D  :D

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Twincharged

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/private-car-numbers-fall-to-eight-year-low

 

Somehow, the initial news of an increase quoto might bring some joy, but it seems that long term the trend is actually a reduction in numbers:

 

 

 

Car population down 4% as the total number of vehicles shrinks for third straight year
Senior Transport Correspondent
 
 

Singapore's vehicle population, led by cars, has shrunk for the third consecutive year.

According to statistics released by the Land Transport Authority this week, there were 956,430 vehicles on the road as of Dec 31 last year. This is about 0.1 per cent lower than in 2015, and 1.8 per cent lower than the peak in 2013.

The private car population fell by 4 per cent to 552,427 - the lowest in eight years. Observers attribute the fall to a clawback of certificates of entitlement (COEs) in the early 2010s to correct an earlier oversupply.

The contraction is also attributed to a near-zero allowable yearly growth rate instituted for the COE system. This growth cap has been lowered systematically in recent years - from 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent in 2009, then to 1 per cent in 2012, 0.5 per cent in 2013 and 0.25 per cent since 2015.

There is usually a lag between the time a car is scrapped and a new COE is recycled back into the system. Previous growth rates were able to mask this lag, but not the near-zero cap in place now.

 
 

SIM University economist Walter Theseira said: "Given the policy goal to keep vehicle growth minimal or even static in the future, the expectation clearly is that reliance on public transport, as well as on private-hire vehicles and taxis, must increase to satisfy transport demand with a growing population."

 

 

st_20170121_ctshrunk21_2889378.jpg

 

 

 

The trend is underscored by a spike in rental car numbers. Last year, their population grew 75 per cent to a record 51,336. The figure has grown by over three times since ride-hailing apps Uber and Grab entered the market in 2013.

REALITY CHECK

For some people, this may be an unfair outcome as they may need the car more than those who have the means to own one. However, with an improving standard of public transport, this pain point might be softened.

NANYANG BUSINESS SCHOOL ADJUNCT ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR ZAFAR MOMIN, on the reality that not everyone's aspirations for owning a car can be fulfilled.

Kah Motor general manager Nicholas Wong said private-hire cars "have displaced private passenger cars as well as taxis".

Statistics show that the taxi population has fallen by 2.6 per cent to a five-year low of 27,534. Mr Wong said the private passenger car population could continue to shrink.

But transport consultant Bruno Wildermuth said that should be the way to go. "For Singapore to become 'car-lite', the number of cars has to decrease, and cars must be used less. Currently, because of the high cost of owning a car, many drivers use the car even when it makes little or no sense."

To counter this, he said, COE expiry should be pegged to mileage clocked by a car instead of years.

Dr Theseira said the ramp-up of bus services and rail infrastructure "will meet reasonable growth in demand" for transport.

"However, the public transport system clearly cannot satisfy demand for private transport as a status symbol," he noted. "The public transport system also does not completely satisfy the transport needs of groups such as young families and the elderly, and professions with irregular travel patterns.

"Private transport will continue to be a key part of our transport system for many years to come."

Motorcycles - another form of private transport - have dwindled in numbers too. Last year, the population fell to 143,052, its lowest in 10 years. This has put a squeeze on motorbike COE supply, which sent prices beyond the reach of many low-income earners who rely on two-wheelers.

Experts said it is not possible for Singapore to meet everyone's private transport aspirations.

Nanyang Business School adjunct associate professor Zafar Momin said: "For some people, this may be an unfair outcome as they may need the car more than those who have the means to own one. 

"However, with an improving standard of public transport, this pain point might be softened."

 

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1st Gear

"Coe expiry pegged to mileage clocked by car". Wow...

What if I drive in Malaysia more than on Singapore road?

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Twincharged

I had said b4, very likely to drop to 900k vehicles

I also have said it before, car population was on the decline, but some strange people will come out to argue by saying cannot be, government already said zero growth, 0.x% growth etc etc. Fact is statistic is showing decline.
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