Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota

[Blueray]

COE renewal is now the new normal I guess.

 

Expect this year will have similar numbers of renewals.

[mcflhw]

COE renewal is now the new normal I guess.

 

Expect this year will have similar numbers of renewals.

New norm means quota decrease or increase?

[Arch1984]

New norm means quota decrease or increase?

 

More ppl renew then less ppl dereg.

 

Main component of the COE quota is based on dereg. So if more ppl renew this year means quota will be lesser lo.

 

But last year is like a record year already. Dunno if this year will more more than last year anot.

[Mkl22]

More ppl renew then less ppl dereg.

 

Main component of the COE quota is based on dereg. So if more ppl renew this year means quota will be lesser lo.

 

But last year is like a record year already. Dunno if this year will more more than last year anot.

 

but its good. the 5 year renewals pad up the leans years from 2010-2014.

 

given that 70% of the renewals are for 5years, 70% of 29k gives us around 20k confirmed COEs for 2021 for cars.

 

[Arch1984]

but its good. the 5 year renewals pad up the leans years from 2010-2014.

 

given that 70% of the renewals are for 5years, 70% of 29k gives us around 20k confirmed COEs for 2021 for cars.

 

 

Yeah smooths out the COE abit.

[Mustank]

Interesting quote:

The COEs of more than 13,000 commercial vehicles will be expiring by next month.

Mr Lim of Tan Chong said: "Even if one-third are scrapped, it will result in 4,000 fresh COEs coming back into the system. That is four times the current supply. It will be interesting to see what happens."

All renew

[Hosaybo]

but its good. the 5 year renewals pad up the leans years from 2010-2014.

 

given that 70% of the renewals are for 5years, 70% of 29k gives us around 20k confirmed COEs for 2021 for cars.

 

To substain the trend for renewal, the current COE cannot dip too low as some of these who renewed might just scrap their car. So maybe, Gov would like to see it maintain at least above 40k region. This will smoothen and normalize out the future supply.

[Blueray]

Yup, looks like COE will be range bound at $40k+ to $50k under current loan guidelines and car population growth rate of 0.25%.

[Enye]

interested to find out what ts did to his car in the end with his bearish outlook for coe prices at that time

 

he mentioned his car was expiring around end 2016

 

 

[Matrix0405]

Yup, looks like COE will be range bound at $40k+ to $50k under current loan guidelines and car population growth rate of 0.25%.

 

0,25% car pop growth was not removed, a surprised. LTA can make $50K per COE, it must be quite hard for them to reduce no of COE & deprive themselves. Maybe car-lite is more cars but drive less; just park at home, polish and depreciate.

[Mkl22]

0,25% car pop growth was not removed, a surprised. LTA can make $50K per COE, it must be quite hard for them to reduce no of COE & deprive themselves. Maybe car-lite is more cars but drive less; just park at home, polish and depreciate.

I totally agree. I believe that the quota might even go up once GNSS ERP Is implemented. Those who think otherwise because of car lite will hugely mistaken. They are not going to kill their cash cow. The way forward is to encourage ownership but limit usage. Win win for them.

[Dafansu]

0,25% car pop growth was not removed, a surprised. LTA can make $50K per COE, it must be quite hard for them to reduce no of COE & deprive themselves. Maybe car-lite is more cars but drive less; just park at home, polish and depreciate.

 

0.25% will be till end year, the review will be for 2018

[Winningeleven]

I believe Govt want Car lite policy toward those who drives to the city where there is MRT every 400m to 800m. Of course MRT must also be reliable too.

 

However . many bought cars mainly to save time to commute to work. Especially those who works in Tuas , Aviation industries in loyang and seletar and the worst is jurong island and plus ulu ulu like jalan buroh, penjuru , woodland indiustrial area, senoko sembawang etc. Did our govt build MRT over there? 

 

With govt goin to build new north south expressway plus the cost building MCE , sentosa gateway, i dont see a reason why govt need to cut the car population for the next 10 years!!!!

 

Somemore can milk more money from singaporean due to the craving of car even with high COE. Why stop?

[Ken138]

You can still pay top $$$$ to buy yr car .. keep in the garage...

increase coe supply , more $$ ...

But if you do drive out, then pay as you drive.. the beep beep deduction sound will continously beep till you stressed out, & get heart attack lor..

The choice is yours ... the winner is ....... :)

[Aukang]

To substain the trend for renewal, the current COE cannot dip too low as some of these who renewed might just scrap their car. So maybe, Gov would like to see it maintain at least above 40k region. This will smoothen and normalize out the future supply.

I beg to differ. These people won't scrap if they took a loan for the COE renewal and not forgetting they forfeited the parf value in renewing COE. Thus many will have no choice but to hold on... Especially so for the 5 year COE renewed cos the parf value lost is greater over 5 years than 10 years.

[Blueray]

0.25% will be till end year, the review will be for 2018

 

oic.

 

so come Q3 or early Q4 will again have speculations and rumours re the new car population growth rate. 

[inlinesix]

I believe Govt want Car lite policy toward those who drives to the city where there is MRT every 400m to 800m. Of course MRT must also be reliable too.

 

However . many bought cars mainly to save time to commute to work. Especially those who works in Tuas , Aviation industries in loyang and seletar and the worst is jurong island and plus ulu ulu like jalan buroh, penjuru , woodland indiustrial area, senoko sembawang etc. Did our govt build MRT over there? 

 

With govt goin to build new north south expressway plus the cost building MCE , sentosa gateway, i dont see a reason why govt need to cut the car population for the next 10 years!!!!

 

Somemore can milk more money from singaporean due to the craving of car even with high COE. Why stop?

 

Our number of car per population is higher than bigger country.  Make sense or not.

 

After removing all the blue collar workers, it is even more ridiculous.

 

[therock]

Thinking aloud, one of the consequences of a higher rate of renewal of cars instead of buying new ones will be an increased rate of car breakdowns.

The majority of renewals are not done by people who wish to preserve their classic car.

Instead, more of these renewals will come from drivers trying to find ways to retain their existing car, or people buying old cars so they can drive.

These drivers have decided that a new car doesn't make sense to them, and saving the maximum amount is more important.

I have a student like that. He is now working, but his old Lancer was due and he paid the prevailing COE then (35k) and renewed for five years. He hopes that his position in the company will go higher and he can afford a new car then.

So if these drivers wish to save, maintenance and servicing will be the first to go. Stretch the intervals between servicing. Change less parts. Retain old tires for longer.

 

This phenomenon won't be good for them or other drivers.