Q2 GDP falls by 4.7% - how many are aware?

[Lotr]

 

If you think growth of 1.8% is low, how about a contraction of 4.7%? Were you aware of this before reading this post? Now that you are aware, consider the importance of actually understanding what you read in the local press instead of swallowing headlines without further thought.

 

And what collateral will QE4 be based on, pray tell? Unless you were being sarcastic, of course :p

 

what collateral? the powers that be will just continue to kick the can down the road, don't think that they have the moral courage to let the whole system collapse. Just being cynical i guess

[Andyngps]

Chronicles of bitcoin. Hearsay preduction of hard recession in sep. Hopefully not...lots if households will be affected especially those who invested heavily..such as multiple properties etc.

[Solar]

Have been reading news and forums and after filtering the noise and reading between the lines, I reckoned trouble was coming.. Just that the exact time wasn't quite known. Could be 2015, 2016 or 2018. Now it seems like it's already here :-/

 

Call me paranoid, and also due to my job nature, I got no time to monitor markets. 6 or 8 months ago already gone 100% cash.. Well.. excluding around 10% in precious metals.

And yea..I do miss out some opportunities..

 

Right now with all these negative news everywhere, perhaps just wait out for the markets to hit bottom (or agar agar near) then go back in again.

[Solar]

Not enough foreigners, time to import more.

No job even for them, how to import?

Besides, they aren't exactly cheap, we are not talking about blue collar laborers.

 

This is the time those already imported will start to look for better options back home.

[Kb27]

No job even for them, how to import?

Besides, they aren't exactly cheap, we are not talking about blue collar laborers.

 

This is the time those already imported will start to look for better options back home.

 

pappy logic is foreigners = gdp.

so when GDP goes down, that means not enough foreigners.

[Dfx16]

It has shown sign in Q1 when we see slow down in retail rental, in Q2 some less prime location malls started to see vacant units.

 

if such scene hit retail in Singapore mean it has been here for a while. Actually there was a short interview and analysis by a NUS professor on channel 8 two weeks ago after they announced the GDP numbers.

Those retail chain malls asking is just too ridiculous and notorious

A shop space as small as money changer shop size can go as high as 8k per mtn rental not to mention it's not located at basement 1 or level 1 it's located at level 4 who in the right mind will rent from them

 

It will not slow if landlord willing to face a more realistic figures

Rental had been rocketed for the last 3 years

If they willing to go back to 3 - 4 years back asking we might not see a slow down for retail rental

[Lightbringer]

 

what collateral? the powers that be will just continue to kick the can down the road, don't think that they have the moral courage to let the whole system collapse. Just being cynical i guess

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d40c5cc4-4e29-11e4-bfda-00144feab7de.html

 

Quantitative easing is not just printing money then giving it to the banks, you know. Collateral in the form of debts are bought by the Fed, that's the pathway for newly printed money to flow into the monetary system.

 

And apparently there are very few good quality collateral left for the Fed to buy, so regardless of how much you're printing, there's only so much debt available for purchase....

[Solar]

 

pappy logic is foreigners = gdp.

so when GDP goes down, that means not enough foreigners.

When business can sustain, hiring foreigners are easier.

When they close or closing down, they can't even survive, how to hire.

 

Perhaps pappy would, like u say, relax the criteria. But if businesses aren't doing well, their take-up might be affected and not able to import as they would probably like it to be?

 

If they were to import them cheap, businesses would also need to see how cheap to be viable, and for the foreigners, would they want to come in really cheap, vs their home country?

Living expenses here is expensive, even for renting a hdb.

 

And those expensive FT would also be let go during this time, or they take local terms.

That's why imo this is the time the hiring might be shifting back to Singaporeans.

[epimetheus]

the media reports always focus on growth. even if they do report contractions, it is sector focused eg. manufacturing. the mentality has to shift before people start realising the effects. granted, not everyone is economics trained, but it's pretty easy to tell the difference between specific figures

[Throttle2]

Splendid!

 

Every now and then Singaporeans need a big rod on their buttocks to wake up.

After so many clues and signs, they still havent got it. Asking to learn hard way.

 

Look around and see whats happening, we are very vulnerable.

[Count-Bracula]

 

 

End of season liao lah

 

I know M'sia Super League season over but my place here still selling cat mountain king. LOL!

Edited August 23, 2015 by Count-Bracula

[Megatop]

Next year? From the look of things, Singapore will probably be in a technical recession by Q4. And there will be no Big Bro Mao or Big Bro Sam to pick up the pieces and boost growth by then.

 

Chance of technical recession in Q3. Maybe MAS will ease further in Oct.

 

Wait and see if China launches any massive stimulus program.

[CKP]

I think majority of people here will be aware.

 

Meanwhile, employment growth from June/Dec 2014 to June/Dec 2015

looks to come in at an increase of +2.5 to 2.7%.

 

Coupled with a +1% increase in GDP over the same period if we are lucky,

it looks like Singapore will experience yet another -1.5% fall in productivity.

 

(where GDP growth = employment growth + labor productivity growth)

 

Edited August 23, 2015 by CKP

[Mustank]

Coe no drop but increase

[Happily1986]

Ya i am aware of this development. Translated into real world impact, my industry has been hit by a softer demand in Q4, interesting how we lagged behind the other sectors by 2Q.

[Volvobrick]

 

pappy logic is foreigners = gdp.

so when GDP goes down, that means not enough foreigners.

 

Their logic/story/claim is:

 

GDP goes up = Good Garmen Management

GDP goes down = Global economic forces, and Singapore is a price taker and sinks with global trading partners. Would be worse if not for good garmen management.

 

Head they win, tail we lose....

Coe no drop but increase

Civil servants/teachers supporting the COE....

Edited August 23, 2015 by Volvobrick

[Thaiyotakamli]

 

pappy logic is foreigners = gdp.

so when GDP goes down, that means not enough foreigners.

at least maybe their theory more foreigners higher chance more output and income

[Matrix0405]

 

I knew it was a contraction when i read the news earlier on, but didn't notice it was 4.7%.

But i may have read bloomberg instead of reading the CNA report (can't remember).

 

The CNA article definitely didn't frame it correctly

 

 

Same. Know there is a slow down & missed target but din know it was a -4.7% q-on-q. Also din know -4.7% is a large/slump-level contraction. Kudos to 154th, they did well.