2015 Sep, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[Googoo]

No choice the new MOT have to do the right thing that is shave off some COE and give to the lean period. That is the Thanksless job!

 

 

i still dunno why there need to a have OCS.. dont know why need to save the coes to give it to the lean period. A lean period means less cars scrap which means the demand is low. and since the demand is low why need to increase the supply.. similarly by artificially reducing the supply of coes when the demand is actually high also creates a huge spike in the price.

 

by implementing OCS. the supply and demand is being messed up.

 

i say just let market forces decide the number of COEs (other than controlling the growth %).. If i am LTA i dont need to care about the high price of COEs (dont bring in politics here first), to me all i care is the number of cars on the road and by letting the market forces determine the supply and demand i am achieving my aim isn't it? just as long as i control the growth (new COEs) can liao mah..

 

no of COEs = number of cars scrap + growth . All LTA need to care is the growth. the numnber of cars scrap just leave it to market..

[Achee]

 

 

i still dunno why there need to a have OCS.. dont know why need to save the coes to give it to the lean period. A lean period means less cars scrap which means the demand is low. and since the demand is low why need to increase the supply.. similarly by artificially reducing the supply of coes when the demand is actually high also creates a huge spike in the price.

 

by implementing OCS. the supply and demand is being messed up.

 

i say just let market forces decide the number of COEs (other than controlling the growth %).. If i am LTA i dont need to care about the high price of COEs (dont bring in politics here first), to me all i care is the number of cars on the road and by letting the market forces determine the supply and demand i am achieving my aim isn't it? just as long as i control the growth (new COEs) can liao mah..

 

no of COEs = number of cars scrap + growth . All LTA need to care is the growth. the numnber of cars scrap just leave it to market..

It is not true that 'less cars scrap means demand is low'. At all times there are people buying new cars, some change new cars every 2 years and some are new buyers.

 

I would think a more even supply of COE is necessary, good for the car buyers, motor trades as the latter do not have to hire and fire sales staff. More importantly is to maintain a more consistent price level instead of COE prices spiking up to $100K in one year and down to $50K the next year.

[Tkseah]

I think Gov should not implement OCS, as this will appear as an attempt to manipulate COE prices. Gov should simply stick to the current method of controlling the number of COE quota based on growth rate and deregistration, just maybe fine tune the formula if necessary.

[Googoo]

It is not true that 'less cars scrap means demand is low'. At all times there are people buying new cars, some change new cars every 2 years and some are new buyers.

 

I would think a more even supply of COE is necessary, good for the car buyers, motor trades as the latter do not have to hire and fire sales staff. More importantly is to maintain a more consistent price level instead of COE prices spiking up to $100K in one year and down to $50K the next year.

 

the fact remains that the supply side is determined by no of cars scrap plus % of growth means it is already catered to demand. Surely there are times where people buy new cars, change new car every 2 years but the fact remain that the supply is largely determined by the number of cars scrap + % of growth means the car population is under control..

 

a new coe will only be throw back into the system where a car get scrap.. if OCS were to implement, my feel is the coe will chong up like siao now and then drop a lot in those lean years where u artificially increase the supply.. so again the price will not be consistent.

 

As LTA if the main aim to control the population of the car, i dont need to care whether COE is $100k or $5k, The number of COE does not depend on the price.. but ya some will say if COE become $5k a lot will scrap/sell their car and buy new, but this will be part of the market forces and will eventually stabilize.

 

I say when u buy the car, u buy at a price u deem comfortable. does it mean if coe drops to $1 the next day u buy, u suddenly will not be able to afford??

 

As for the car industry ya what u mention could happen, but whats so special abt the car industry that the govt must so take care of them?

 

I really don't see a need to maintain a consistent price level if the goal is to control car population.. Let the market forces work themselves out..

 

Btw since i brought a new car lately, i should prefer OCS as this most likely will mean the COE will not drop much in the 2016 to 2018 years. hahahha

[Googoo]

I think Gov should not implement OCS, as this will appear as an attempt to manipulate COE prices. Gov should simply stick to the current method of controlling the number of COE quota based on growth rate and deregistration, just maybe fine tune the formula if necessary.

 

 

exactly my point.. the reasons for implementing OCS i see boils down to

 

1. control price.. to have a more consistent price. This in one way to an attempt to manipulate price liao

2. help car trade industry - so that they dont need to fire and hire staff during the lean and rich coe years..

 

i got feeling that the govt will not touch the coe part but increase the car taxes (erp, road tax or whatever car related taxes) to further reduce car consumption.. but i could be wrong.. hahah

[Civic6228]

Assume a standard sized family 2 parents, 2 children + 1 maid, how to fit inside a taxi? Even if exclude the maid also need to include the driver bah. Some people will say take MPV but can allow child seat? By the time install child seat the taxi uncle already face black and meter start counting. Havent start moving already more than 10 dollars. Then when arrive destination, how to carry the child seat everywhere? Don't mention if raining, wah kau, wife shout and children fight. Divorce rate going to go up. Carry stroller with wheels also big headache, don't say child seat.

 

Conclusion, private car for family decrease divorce rate, save medical bill for heart problems and high blood pressure, and can earn some side income become uber driver.

 

 

 

In your conclusion .... no car = divorce. Marriage is built on the availability of a car .... so if I drive a nicer car, my partner should be more chio ....

 

[Civic6228]

 

 

exactly my point.. the reasons for implementing OCS i see boils down to

 

1. control price.. to have a more consistent price. This in one way to an attempt to manipulate price liao

2. help car trade industry - so that they dont need to fire and hire staff during the lean and rich coe years..

 

i got feeling that the govt will not touch the coe part but increase the car taxes (erp, road tax or whatever car related taxes) to further reduce car consumption.. but i could be wrong.. hahah

 

I do support OCS ..... the fluctuating supply of COE is creating a vicious cycle of up and down of supply. During years of low supply, demand exceed supply, prices goes up ... Sames as in years of high level of supply, coupled with economy downturn ... prices drop.

 

If LTA is serious about using COE to control poupulation and not to generate revenue ... they should average off a ten years supply and have a constant supply. In some years, it would be tough ... as more cars are scrapped but the law of average will prevail at the end.

[Penknife]

Eh?

 

At $1.97 / litre its only just over 200 litres - around 46 litres a week -

 

I would be quite happy if that was all I used

wha car u driving?

 

i'm on the GK honda jazz. on meter, my fc is 16.5km/l. my first full tank after getting car last week.

[KumarB]

i wonder why people still said COE may go up when recession is near.

STI already dropping till 2700+..expecting to drop below 2500 by year end..maybe even earlier.

Edited September 30, 2015 by KumarB

[Tkseah]

i wonder why people still said COE may go up when recession is near.

STI already dropping till 2700+..expecting to drop below 2500 by year end..maybe even earlier.

 

Most pple are not directly affected by stock markets and do not even monitor whether market is going up or down.. they are only indirectly affected when recession happens and companies starts retrenching staff..

[edwin15]

 

i got feeling that the govt will not touch the coe part but increase the car taxes (erp, road tax or whatever car related taxes) to further reduce car consumption.. but i could be wrong.. hahah

 

 

As much as I do not like it, I have a sinking feeling that your feeling is correct

 

In your conclusion .... no car = divorce. Marriage is built on the availability of a car .... so if I drive a nicer car, my partner should be more chio ....

 

 

Which model have the biggest headlights and rear diffuser for the money pls. I want stock hor. No aftermarket zheng hor.

 

No SUV or MPV also.....

[Nissan833]

 

In your conclusion .... no car = divorce. Marriage is built on the availability of a car .... so if I drive a nicer car, my partner should be more chio ....

 

 

When marriages are built on foundation such as these.. you gotta worry how reliable and stable it is when the going gets tough.

 

Nowadays, people.. tsk tsk.

[Forte3737]

i wonder why people still said COE may go up when recession is near.

STI already dropping till 2700+..expecting to drop below 2500 by year end..maybe even earlier.

No Co relation between stock mkt. Even if a recession comes, coe will still go up.the quota is just too small. Worse still,the quota for Nov to Jan 2016 will shrink

[Roh96]

I am hoping to see ppl who argue a car is a want to just sell their cars and give up their COE to those who need it.

Take affordability factor out, don't come and say oh I buy car bcos I choose to, oh bcos my wife wants to, blah blah...

I have higher respect for ppl who walk the talk.

[edwin15]

I am hoping to see ppl who argue a car is a want to just sell their cars and give up their COE to those who need it.

Take affordability factor out, don't come and say oh I buy car bcos I choose to, oh bcos my wife wants to, blah blah...

I have higher respect for ppl who walk the talk.

 

 

You do not make sense.

 

If I want a car and can afford a car, I should give up my car to others just beacuse I want it.

 

Very confused.

[Darryn]

wha car u driving?

 

i'm on the GK honda jazz. on meter, my fc is 16.5km/l. my first full tank after getting car last week.

I drive Toymotor wish - Right now my meter is 10.6 km/l - 50 litres is typically 500-550 km

 

A week where we don't do at least this much is very rare

 

Edited September 30, 2015 by Darryn

[Darryn]

 

 

You do not make sense.

 

If I want a car and can afford a car, I should give up my car to others just beacuse I want it.

 

Very confused.

I think the point he's making -

It's mighty smug to say things like "a car's a luxury" or "cars are just wants, there's no need for a car" when you are a driver...

 

It's rather like saying

"there's no need for tuition in Singapore, I send my kids because they enjoy it"

Or

"Every school's a good school" when you are an alumni of one of the prestige schools and you kid got in on that basis

Or

"Degrees don't matter, experience is more important" when you have got a masters with a govt scholarship and are on the scholarship track in the civil service

Or

"Money doesn't bring privilege - I am an entrepreneur and started my own business from scratch" when you were able to borrow $100k from the bank of MummyDaddy to fund your first year of operations

[Sweeney]

Total car population is fixed by COE system.

 

Fluctuations that occurred from year to year based on supply side during the years under Raymond who allowed supply to grow based on policy of the day, i.e. expand ownership but check usage through usage charges.

 

Coupled to easy financing which was also policy due to goal of expanding financial industry, i.e. more loans = more business = more profits for banks and finance companies. Perfect storm glut and lowest COE prices ever.

 

That resulted in the ballooning of the car population that is still coursing through the roads today. It is this congestion caused by these total number of cars (900k+, IIRC) that the LTA is hoping to solve (from pressure by the public, I think) by implementing negative car growth.

 

I believe the goal of the LTA is two-fold. First is to reduce overall car population and 2nd is to even out the glut that flooded during the previous policies (2005-2007, I think) so as to remove volatility in the supply that came from the severe contraction that followed. I don't think that raising funds is the main KPI of the LTA as the price of congestion (to the economy and from social backlash) is far greater than the cash raised.

 

LTA should not clawback now due to the 'quenching of thirst' analogy raised by some writer. They should wait till the market is more satiated (as evidenced by a downward trending in prices) before they implement clawback. That way, I believe they can minimise the fallout from the public while meeting their long term goal.

 

Overall, more predictability is better for the system as potential owners can then plan their future car purchases instead of the current knee-jerk reactions where people respond to rumours that results in chasing up the COEs.

 

I am waiting for the market to trend downward so that I can buy another. My current car in on its last legs and am mentally prepared to do without one for next year as I wait for saner prices to appear.

 

My $55.3k worth of opinion.