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yo2020

2015 Sep, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

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Total car population is fixed by COE system.

 

Fluctuations that occurred from year to year based on supply side during the years under Raymond who allowed supply to grow based on policy of the day, i.e. expand ownership but check usage through usage charges.

 

Coupled to easy financing which was also policy due to goal of expanding financial industry, i.e. more loans = more business = more profits for banks and finance companies. Perfect storm glut and lowest COE prices ever.

 

That resulted in the ballooning of the car population that is still coursing through the roads today. It is this congestion caused by these total number of cars (900k+, IIRC) that the LTA is hoping to solve (from pressure by the public, I think) by implementing negative car growth.

 

I believe the goal of the LTA is two-fold. First is to reduce overall car population and 2nd is to even out the glut that flooded during the previous policies (2005-2007, I think) so as to remove volatility in the supply that came from the severe contraction that followed. I don't think that raising funds is the main KPI of the LTA as the price of congestion (to the economy and from social backlash) is far greater than the cash raised.

 

LTA should not clawback now due to the 'quenching of thirst' analogy raised by some writer. They should wait till the market is more satiated (as evidenced by a downward trending in prices) before they implement clawback. That way, I believe they can minimise the fallout from the public while meeting their long term goal.

 

Overall, more predictability is better for the system as potential owners can then plan their future car purchases instead of the current knee-jerk reactions where people respond to rumours that results in chasing up the COEs.

 

I am waiting for the market to trend downward so that I can buy another. My current car in on its last legs and am mentally prepared to do without one for next year as I wait for saner prices to appear.

 

My $55.3k worth of opinion. [;)]

 

 

 

 

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To my mind there are two issues with COE supply -

 

Firstly, it's not healthy to have car dealerships go from 30k Units annually to 6k units annually in the space of 3-5 years. This introduces a lot of problems and inefficiencies into the industry. At some times there is excess capacity (showrooms too big, too many staff) and at others the facilities are not enough. And you can't have easy scaling of showrooms and trained staff in that sort of time period.

Secondly - it can't be good for the economy to have. I car prices fluctuating by 5-10% in the space of two weeks, or 20% in the space of a year due to COE. Intuitively, such a volatile market in the second biggest purchase of most people's lives can't be healthy for the economy as a whole - so more predictability / stability would be better.

 

I don't have any data to support this - but we do know that volatility in markets induces less than optimal behaviour.

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I think the point he's making -

It's mighty smug to say things like "a car's a luxury" or "cars are just wants, there's no need for a car" when you are a driver...

 

It's rather like saying

"there's no need for tuition in Singapore, I send my kids because they enjoy it"

Or

"Every school's a good school" when you are an alumni of one of the prestige schools and you kid got in on that basis

Or

"Degrees don't matter, experience is more important" when you have got a masters with a govt scholarship and are on the scholarship track in the civil service

Or

"Money doesn't bring privilege - I am an entrepreneur and started my own business from scratch" when you were able to borrow $100k from the bank of MummyDaddy to fund your first year of operations

 

 

As I said. These are prefectly reasonable wants but that does not make them needs.

 

1) There is no need for tuition but I want to send my kids for tution so that thye can do well and have a bright future. (Perfectly resonable)

 

2) Public education in Singapore is pretty decent. There is no need to send my kid to a prestigous bit I want to do so for various reasons. (Btw; I know of many pple who have done well in life and not form the prestigous schools)

 

3) "Degrees do not matter". Unfortunately the harsh reality is that they do. However, higher education for everyone in Singapore is pretty affordable and it is very rare that we hear of people who cannot get an education in a local university due to afforability. (Personal experience; my parents could not pay for my educaiton in a local institution but I found it easy to get a study loan and not too hard to pay it off after I starting working.)

 

4) "Money doesn't bring privilege". Again unfortunately untrue. Harsh reality is that privileges can be bought but that does not making having a lot of money a need. However, having a certain minimum amount of money is definitely a need to survive.

 

 

Yes I drive, but rather than just bluntly saying that a car is a need, I prefer to think of it as a want and that I'm blessed and privileged to be able to afford this want when a lot of my other countrymen are taking the public transport which can suck big time at times in the current situation.

 

However, I admit that I'm also selfish and not a saint to say that I would take the place of another person and give up my ride.

 

Bottomline, a car is a privilege and not an entitlement nor a need.

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As I said. These are prefectly reasonable wants but that does not make them needs.

 

1) There is no need for tuition but I want to send my kids for tution so that thye can do well and have a bright future. (Perfectly resonable)

 

2) Public education in Singapore is pretty decent. There is no need to send my kid to a prestigous bit I want to do so for various reasons. (Btw; I know of many pple who have done well in life and not form the prestigous schools)

 

3) "Degrees do not matter". Unfortunately the harsh reality is that they do. However, higher education for everyone in Singapore is pretty affordable and it is very rare that we hear of people who cannot get an education in a local university due to afforability. (Personal experience; my parents could not pay for my educaiton in a local institution but I found it easy to get a study loan and not too hard to pay it off after I starting working.)

 

4) "Money doesn't bring privilege". Again unfortunately untrue. Harsh reality is that privileges can be bought but that does not making having a lot of money a need. However, having a certain minimum amount of money is definitely a need to survive.

 

 

Yes I drive, but rather than just bluntly saying that a car is a need, I prefer to think of it as a want and that I'm blessed and privileged to be able to afford this want when a lot of my other countrymen are taking the public transport which can suck big time at times in the current situation.

 

However, I admit that I'm also selfish and not a saint to say that I would take the place of another person and give up my ride.

 

Bottomline, a car is a privilege and not an entitlement nor a need.

 

 

Elitist much, but I like! Esp the bolded parts, and I resonate with it.

 

Well, as much as we bitch about it, truth is, when it comes to affordability, some have it privileged. Do not expect the govt to grant ALL the entitlement to a car and you will have a national gridlock! As it is, What Lemon Lim has already created a helluva congestion on the roads. Much better now tho

 

 

Hard truth but is is the truth

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So anybody want to hazard a guess as to the direction of the upcoming COEs? My take is that is will go up and down by 1k to 2k each way for the time being.

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So anybody want to hazard a guess as to the direction of the upcoming COEs? My take is that is will go up and down by 1k to 2k each way for the time being.

 

My take is it will drop a little between 2K.

Although orders increase due to promos but its a 6 bid thing and doubt it will be a 1 bid car collection.

 

The climb will come mostly in Nov onwards.

 

Just my 2 cents

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So anybody want to hazard a guess as to the direction of the upcoming COEs? My take is that is will go up and down by 1k to 2k each way for the time being.

I think COEs will mostly likely continue to drop... to 50k...40k..30k..20k..and then 10k soon... cuz more cars r due to scrapped in 2015 - 2016... meaning supply will increase... now coe too expensive, how to afford a car ?? how i wish back to 2006-2008 days when coe prices was just ard 10k... hopefully drop back to tt level lor..

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As long as there's no major financial crisis, it is hard to predict which way COE will go. It is as good as predicting what policies the government will change or put in place, since the COE is highly dependent on these factors.

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I think COEs will mostly likely continue to drop... to 50k...40k..30k..20k..and then 10k soon... cuz more cars r due to scrapped in 2015 - 2016... meaning supply will increase... now coe too expensive, how to afford a car ?? how i wish back to 2006-2008 days when coe prices was just ard 10k... hopefully drop back to tt level lor..

You usual style of making rubbish posts to attract rebuke and attention doesn't work anymore. Sabbie, too bad. Lol.

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if COE goes up next round, it would be girlgirlzz's fault for increasing the thread counts.

 

[laugh] [laugh] [laugh]

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I guess COE will increase 2-5k next Wednesday because of new transport minister speech on "car light environment".. So next announcement in October about Coe quota for next 3 months will not impact.

 

So big dealers with hundreds of guaranteed Coe package will put in more aggressive bid, earn few K lesser but get their order out to reduce risk of possibly higher Coe pricing. last Wednesday my dealer bid $62,999 for me, and all settled at $60001.. So I guess it's up next round, 2-5k

I guess COE will increase 2-5k next Wednesday because of new transport minister speech on "car light environment"..

 

I'm glad I don't have to worry about Coe fluctuation in the next 10 years..

Edited by Chucky2007
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I guess COE will increase 2-5k next Wednesday because of new transport minister speech on "car light environment".. So next announcement in October about Coe quota for next 3 months will not impact.

 

So big dealers with hundreds of guaranteed Coe package will put in more aggressive bid, earn few K lesser but get their order out to reduce risk of possibly higher Coe pricing. last Wednesday my dealer bid $62,999 for me, and all settled at $60001.. So I guess it's up next round, 2-5k

I guess COE will increase 2-5k next Wednesday because of new transport minister speech on "car light environment"..

 

I'm glad I don't have to worry about Coe fluctuation in the next 10 years..

 

Congrats on getting the bid! :)

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Congrats on getting the bid! :)

thank you. I will be getting another car, most likely a red plate MPV to drive whole village out on weekends, when Coe hits below 20k (always possible) and we can congratulate each other again..

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thank you. I will be getting another car, most likely a red plate MPV to drive whole village out on weekends, when Coe hits below 20k (always possible) and we can congratulate each other again..

 

Welcome. [;)] Not to worry, I will wait for that day to come when COE drops below 10k level.. [;)] I believe it's possible.

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I guess COE will increase 2-5k next Wednesday because of new transport minister speech on "car light environment".. So next announcement in October about Coe quota for next 3 months will not impact.

 

So big dealers with hundreds of guaranteed Coe package will put in more aggressive bid, earn few K lesser but get their order out to reduce risk of possibly higher Coe pricing. last Wednesday my dealer bid $62,999 for me, and all settled at $60001.. So I guess it's up next round, 2-5k

I guess COE will increase 2-5k next Wednesday because of new transport minister speech on "car light environment"..

 

I'm glad I don't have to worry about Coe fluctuation in the next 10 years..

 

you changed from your lancer? Congrats

What car you got?

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Welcome. [;)] Not to worry, I will wait for that day to come when COE drops below 10k level.. [;)] I believe it's possible.

 

Good luck....new Tpt Minister envisions a 'car-lite' singapore.

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I drive Toymotor wish - Right now my meter is 10.6 km/l - 50 litres is typically 500-550 km

 

A week where we don't do at least this much is very rare

 

Have you sent your veh for servicing?

 

My in-law Wish can get 650-700km per tank...70% highway....

 

Everything is stock...

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Have you sent your veh for servicing?

 

My in-law Wish can get 650-700km per tank...70% highway....

 

Everything is stock...

We do a lot less than 70% highway, and it is a 300,000 km car -

We have also upgraded to 17 inch rims - so it will be about there

 

Even in the early days before 100k it was in the early 11 km per litre

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