Jump to content

2016 Recession Year? Gloom and doom 2017!


Scion
 Share

Recommended Posts

Turbocharged

But how long can the chiong last?

 

If the chiong does not last the real risk

 

is the China investor panics and we see

 

massive panic selling that will hit all the

 

other global markets.

 

:D

Machiam dying man grasping for last breath before going deep down? :D
↡ Advertisement
  • Praise 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

more like FED, ECB, BOJ, etc etc ... all pumping morphine to keep staying in ICU and dragggggggggg

 

Machiam dying man grasping for last breath before going deep down? :D

 

  • Praise 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

But how long can the chiong last?

 

If the chiong does not last the real risk

 

is the China investor panics and we see

 

massive panic selling that will hit all the

 

other global markets. 

 

:D

 

It appears to be desperate for some good news, any good news.

But when the bad hits, I think everyone run as fast as they can.

Possibly, confidence is not there.

 

But that's just imo.

  • Praise 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Negative interest rates to kick the can further down the road....

 

Future looks ominous but short term is parteh time yeah

 

 

  • Praise 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Jippun SDF oredi set up anti missile missile to intercept any stray NK ah pui missile.

 

Then bee kok happily sent one destroyer go to disputed south China sea region jalan jalan...

 

All playing with fires...one miscalculated step then voila liao.

  • Praise 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Jippun SDF oredi set up anti missile missile to intercept any stray NK ah pui missile.

 

Then bee kok happily sent one destroyer go to disputed south China sea region jalan jalan...

 

All playing with fires...one miscalculated step then voila liao.

Got so serious or not?

 

Recently turkey shot down Russian jet but didn't spark off ww3

 

 

  • Praise 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Turkey? Siapa orang?

 

US can't be bothered or really can't afford to bother with that one...but immediately kpkb when Ma visit the Taipi island.

 

Low chances for a ww3 except when siao ah pui was drunk n ordered a full launch...or entertainer Trump becomes the head of state n go all out to "claim back" from China...

  • Praise 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Machiam dying man grasping for last breath before going deep down? :D

 

not grasping

 

it is common to see someone very sick suddenly gaining back full health and looking perfectly normal for a few days before passing on

 

perhaps this is the same for stock markets 

Negative interest rates to kick the can further down the road....

 

Future looks ominous but short term is parteh time yeah

 

post-30035-0-90057200-1454290134.jpg

  • Praise 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

this is indeed good lobang, decent counter, decent price.

die also no regrets [laugh] [laugh]

Yes bot at $2.25 a week ago

Today $2.56

 

I am not short term investor so will look to hold over next few years

  • Praise 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

EM v likely to chiong, brazil china... if this happens single names like ICBC aka Ai Si Buey Si will chiong also

 

kep corpse may stop being a corpse n become corp again!

 

kep corpse up, malaysia up, USDJPY up,

 

but surprisingly gold also up, cld b starting of a big mean reversion

  • Praise 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

From: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/negative-interest-rate-policy-nirp.asp

 

"A negative interest rate means the central bank and perhaps private banks will charge negative interest: instead of receiving money on deposits, depositors must pay regularly to keep their money with the bank. This is intended to incentivize banks to lend money more freely and businesses and individuals to invest, lend, and spend money rather than pay a fee to keep it safe."

 

and one critical aspect of NIRP is:

 

"A negative interest rate policy (NIRP) is an unconventional monetary policy tool whereby nominal target interest rates are set with a negative value, below the theoretical lower bound of zero percent."

 

A few salient points that may be worth noting:

 

a. disinflationary pressures are mounting - asset prices are falling, global production and output have slowed down, and unemployment is increasing in a large number of economies

 

b. conventional wisdom is turned on its head - depositors are penalised for saving and borrowers are incentivized to take on loans, producing a vicious cycle of increased risk-taking against the backdrop of faltering economic conditions thereby increasing the probabilities of non-performing loans in the long run

 

c. in the short-term, NIRP has a stimulatory effect as it disincentivizes cash holdings, thereby applying pressure on cash to move into non-cash instruments and vehicles; in the mid to long-term, it reduces profits and liquidity as real use-cases (Switzerland in 1970s) have shown diminished interbank lending

 

d. it is the equivalent of a high-dosage steriod injection - short-term benefits causing long-term harm to the system

 

e. central banks are running out of conventional monetary policy tools and are resorting to unconventional ones whose effects are highly unpredicatable and therefore dangerous for the world economy

 

f. it kick-starts the next phase of the currency war - upping the ante if you may in terms of Yen devaluation. 

 

Now we await the response of China, and if the stock market turmoil sparked off by the devaluation of RMB over the last few months is anything to go by, we should see volatility and violent movements in the forex and stock markets within the next few weeks that would make the last one year seem like a stroll in the park.

 

 

chiong ah chiong ah

 

conspiracy theories all broken down or still intact?

 

:D

 

Edited by OmOm
  • Praise 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

c. in the short-term, NIRP has a stimulatory effect as it disincentivizes cash holdings, thereby applying pressure on cash to move into non-cash instruments and vehicles; in the mid to long-term, it reduces profits and liquidity as real use-cases (Switzerland in 1970s) have shown diminished interbank lending

 

The Japanese companies are sitting on big cash reserves so this probably means more M&A or overseas investments by them. Any guess on how long this negative interest rate will last?

  • Praise 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

so ... good or bad for kep corp ... can buy now? [sly]

 

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/temasek-exploring-options-for-keppel-sembcorp

 

"Temasek is weighing the possibility of Keppel selling its 19.1 per cent stake in wireless operator M1 and paring its 44.6 per cent interest in office landlord Keppel Reit, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private."

 

Edited by Wt_know
↡ Advertisement
  • Praise 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...