2016 Recession Year? Gloom and doom 2017!

[Goldbug]

Red .... good for CNY?

 

Just wait for the dust to settle before going into to look for treasure ...

 

I share your sentiment

[Showster]

Must look at COE today to see if there is chance for STI1500.

 

Actually hard to say if there is direct link between the million dollar mickey mouse and STI. I don't know many (in fact any) person who is deep in both.

 

 

STI 1500? many will jump from their million dollar mickey mouse leh

 

[Enye]

With such high yield (expected dividend as a percentage of price), I would hug it to my grave.

 

Better than SSB I think.

 

Haha...

 

what's the yield now?

 

4% a lot meh?

 

[OmOm]

I believe in the old adage "don't fight the trend". The trend is obviously bearish now. Barring short-term trades on purely technical grounds, investment opportunities will become more numerous and buying prices more attractive as the economic fundamentals worsen. Why buy at $13 when the fundamentals point to dark clouds for banking stocks across the board? Exposure to O&G is just being priced into the bank counters in the last few weeks. In any case, every person's view deserves respect because he or she has unique reasons so I am simply voicing my own opinions and not lambasting other viewpoints or conclusions.

 

If brudder OmOm is right about STI 1500 then we are looking at maybe $8 DBS.

 

Good luck to all!

 

Edited February 3, 2016 by OmOm

[Showster]

what's the yield now?

 

4% a lot meh?

 

Wah 4-5% still not good enough.

 

你这个人够不够贪心啊?

I believe in the old adage "don't fight the trend". The trend is obviously bearish now. Barring short-term trades on purely technical grounds, investment opportunities will become more numerous and buying prices more attractive as the economic fundamentals worsen. Why buy at $13 when the fundamentals point to dark clouds for banking stocks across the board? Exposure to O&G is just being priced into the bank counters in the last few weeks. In any case, every person's view deserves respect because he or she has unique reasons so I am simply voicing my own opinions and not lambasting other viewpoints or conclusions.

You are one brudder I really respect other than T2.

 

Unfortunately the two of your views are at the opposite end of the spectrum

[Jamesc]

i got the latest news about HSBC.

 

They implemented pay freeze for all staff across worldwide for 2016  

 

If he's the next President, USA will have more 911 Twin Tower 'incident' coming...........  God save America

 

Freeze at a high level?

 

When everyone else is cutting

 

that's a sweet deal.

 

What a bunch of bankers.

 

[Duckduck]

Freeze at a high level?

 

When everyone else is cutting

 

that's a sweet deal.

 

What a bunch of bankers.

 

 

my FX trader friend just got a nice bonus... obviously hes in the right bank

[Sabian]

short sellers must cover the shorts on the "same day" right?

Thought nekkid seller who "tarzan bo cheng kor" then need to cover on the same day?

[OmOm]

Leading indicators of recession / more stock market downside?

 

From: http://www.sgcarmart.com/news/writeup.php?AID=70

 

COE RESULTS  2016   Feb 2016, 1st Tender    |   Next Tender - 17 Feb 2016     

 

CAT A     

$46,651        $4,650      $53,799(Feb) 

 

CAT B

$38,610         $11,479       $56,436(Feb)

 

CAT C     

$45,036         $1,466       $45,390(Feb)

 

CAT E     

$44,001         $6,999

 

 

Must look at COE today to see if there is chance for STI1500.

 

Actually hard to say if there is direct link between the million dollar mickey mouse and STI. I don't know many (in fact any) person who is deep in both.

 

Edited February 3, 2016 by OmOm

[Showster]

 

Leading indicators of recession / more stock market downside?

 

From: http://www.sgcarmart.com/news/writeup.php?AID=70

 

COE RESULTS 2016 Feb 2016, 1st Tender | Next Tender - 17 Feb 2016

 

CAT A

$46,651 $4,650 $53,799(Feb)

 

CAT B

$38,610 $11,479 $56,436(Feb)

 

CAT C

$45,036 $1,466 $45,390(Feb)

 

CAT E

$44,001 $6,999

Respect and salute!

[Wt_know]

any leading indicator for 2.5M property drop to 1.5M

please PM ... thanks !!!

[OmOm]

It is not a matter of "if" the $2.5M price-tag will fall to $1.5M, but whether people would buy at that point in time.

 

Hind-sight is 20/20. While the methodology seems simple enough - buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high. In practice it is easier said than done. There are always reasons for prices going rock-bottom and these reasons tend apply across the board for the general populace.

 

Most would be worried about bread-and-butter issues during that time and that would be the key reason why we will see the $1.5M price-tag and the man-in-the-street would not be buying.

 

As for leading indicators to property prices, the most visible and direct one is the STI level because the local stock market and local property market are governed/affected by a common set of factors and parameters.

 

$1.5m for a house that is currently priced at $2.5m will have direct and somewhat linear correlation to the STI levels discounted by same percentage. However we need to take into account the fact that current asking prices are not equivalent to realisable prices today.

 

A $2.5m asking price probably has a $2m to $2.3m market value in reality (called a perceived value-gap). As the economy worsens, this value-gap will shrink because sellers become more motivated to sell at realisable prices.

 

Thus when we see STI hovering between 1,600 and 1,700, we should also see a $1m discount for the property currently for sale at $2.5m. At a lower STI level of 1,500, this same property should be available for $1.3m to $1.4m.

 

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Let's bookmark this and we can revisit this two years down the road to evaluate the accuracy of correlation. :)

 

any leading indicator for 2.5M property drop to 1.5M
please PM ... thanks !!!

 

Edited February 3, 2016 by OmOm

[Eaton]

I am waiting for lakeside properties to crash

[Showster]

The Master has spoken.

 

2.5M becomes 1.5M, 1.5M becomes 800K, 1M HDB becomes 500K. Cash becomes KING.

 

Let's revisit this again.

 

 

It is not a matter of "if" the $2.5M price-tag will fall to $1.5M, but whether people would buy at that point in time.

 

Hind-sight is 20/20. While the methodology seems simple enough - buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high. In practice it is easier said than done. There are always reasons for prices going rock-bottom and these reasons tend apply across the board for the general populace.

 

Most would be worried about bread-and-butter issues during that time and that would be the key reason why we will see the $1.5M price-tag and the man-in-the-street would not be buying.

 

As for leading indicators to property prices, the most visible and direct one is the STI level because the local stock market and local property market are governed/affected by a common set of factors and parameters.

 

$1.5m for a house that is currently priced at $2.5m will have direct and somewhat linear correlation to the STI levels discounted by same percentage. However we need to take into account the fact that current asking prices are not equivalent to realisable prices today.

 

A $2.5m asking price probably has a $2m to $2.3m market value in reality (called a perceived value-gap). As the economy worsens, this value-gap will shrink because sellers become more motivated to sell at realisable prices.

 

Thus when we see STI hovering between 1,600 and 1,700, we should also see a $1m discount for the property currently for sale at $2.5m. At a lower STI level of 1,500, this same property should be available for $1.3m to $1.4m.

 

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Let's bookmark this and we can revisit this two years down the road to evaluate the accuracy of correlation. :)

 

[Yuan]

It is not a matter of "if" the $2.5M price-tag will fall to $1.5M, but whether people would buy at that point in time.

 

Hind-sight is 20/20. While the methodology seems simple enough - buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high. In practice it is easier said than done. There are always reasons for prices going rock-bottom and these reasons tend apply across the board for the general populace.

 

Most would be worried about bread-and-butter issues during that time and that would be the key reason why we will see the $1.5M price-tag and the man-in-the-street would not be buying.

 

As for leading indicators to property prices, the most visible and direct one is the STI level because the local stock market and local property market are governed/affected by a common set of factors and parameters.

 

$1.5m for a house that is currently priced at $2.5m will have direct and somewhat linear correlation to the STI levels discounted by same percentage. However we need to take into account the fact that current asking prices are not equivalent to realisable prices today.

 

A $2.5m asking price probably has a $2m to $2.3m market value in reality (called a perceived value-gap). As the economy worsens, this value-gap will shrink because sellers become more motivated to sell at realisable prices.

 

Thus when we see STI hovering between 1,600 and 1,700, we should also see a $1m discount for the property currently for sale at $2.5m. At a lower STI level of 1,500, this same property should be available for $1.3m to $1.4m.

 

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Let's bookmark this and we can revisit this two years down the road to evaluate the accuracy of correlation. :)

 

Well said sir.   Will give you points when I regain back.

[Throttle2]

Wah 4-5% still not good enough.

 

你这个人够不够贪心啊?

You are one brudder I really respect other than T2.

 

Unfortunately the two of your views are at the opposite end of the spectrum

 

Firstly thanks for your respect, i am unworthy.

 

Secondly my views and Om's have never been on opposite ends of the spectrum.

In fact they are largely in line, the only difference being the severity of which he has stronger feelings about.

 

The proof of the pudding is in the eating and it can only be so if the money is placed where the mouth is.

 

Of course, i am but a chor lang, jobless and not highly educated, therefore my skills linguistically speaking are far below the elegant Om's. However if you do read through, you may be marvelled by the similarities of views within.

 

Again, i appreciate your undeserving respect of the lowly me.

[Porker]

It is not a matter of "if" the $2.5M price-tag will fall to $1.5M, but whether people would buy at that point in time.

 

Hind-sight is 20/20. While the methodology seems simple enough - buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high. In practice it is easier said than done. There are always reasons for prices going rock-bottom and these reasons tend apply across the board for the general populace.

 

Most would be worried about bread-and-butter issues during that time and that would be the key reason why we will see the $1.5M price-tag and the man-in-the-street would not be buying.

 

As for leading indicators to property prices, the most visible and direct one is the STI level because the local stock market and local property market are governed/affected by a common set of factors and parameters.

 

$1.5m for a house that is currently priced at $2.5m will have direct and somewhat linear correlation to the STI levels discounted by same percentage. However we need to take into account the fact that current asking prices are not equivalent to realisable prices today.

 

A $2.5m asking price probably has a $2m to $2.3m market value in reality (called a perceived value-gap). As the economy worsens, this value-gap will shrink because sellers become more motivated to sell at realisable prices.

 

Thus when we see STI hovering between 1,600 and 1,700, we should also see a $1m discount for the property currently for sale at $2.5m. At a lower STI level of 1,500, this same property should be available for $1.3m to $1.4m.

 

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Let's bookmark this and we can revisit this two years down the road to evaluate the accuracy of correlation. :)

There will be a strong element of fear when prices drop by that much and fear is counter intuitive to buy low sell high. Let's see how things pan out

[Angcheek]

what's the yield now?

 

4% a lot meh?

 

 

4% ... sound like CPF ........ hahah