2016 Apr, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[Spurman]

Becuming more n more uber thread here. Lol.

 

My take. I used to dispise uber as i feel that it takes jobs away from taxi. But seriously many cabbies now join uber as some claims to be able to finally own a car be it its a old car.

 

I took uber in the wee morning to airport. He was speeding. From bukit panjang to airport. 20 bucks nia. Return trip also wee hours. Also 25 bucks nia. I dun even have to queue for the taxi. And wee hours also boh taxi plying my place to take me to airport.

 

One of the uber driver was a ex cabbie too. Drove for 8yrs. Sibei hardworking. Hold a day job and drive at nite. Wan2 earn more to supplement his family.

 

I dun blame him. Rather respect him for being so hardworking to earn extra income.

 

Both uber cabs i took r fairly old rides too. But it serves their needs.

 

I tink in long term. Uber is here to stay... its not difficult to use the uber app too which makes it a good platform to compete taxis.

[Kia7200]

Bro why so hot ah? Waiting for 10k coe?

I'm not so unrealistic la. I'm waiting for $30k la

[Ace_mav]

Didn't u read Mr Li review? This group of folk would have already changed car anytime they want but not wait till coe drop then buy car.

 

During coe 90k era, those cars that were sold were only the conti premium. All the BnB Brand hardly even manage to sell any. u expect such buyers when coe drop to come in to fight for Hyundai, Toyota BnB car?

 

Not true. Some rich buyer also smart. Wait until price is right i.e. below 20k to buy. Why spend additional 60-70k give government. One such person is my big boss. Earn so much (5 digit) but still driving a Honda Fit. With no other car and COE ending soon, he will join the fray and compete with the lower income buyer.

 

Thus, the statistics about the clearing the rich buyer when COE was high is not true and never will be true. Don't believe the reviews.

Edited April 21, 2016 by Ace_mav

[Axela72]

u mean yr boss bought car when coe is 90k too? the subject I am answering is on whether those bought at 90k coe will only buy when coe is cheaper or at anytime when they feel like it anot

 

 

Not true. Some rich buyer also smart. Wait until price is right i.e. below 20k to buy. Why spend additional 60-70k give government. One such person is my big boss. Earn so much (5 digit) but still driving a Honda Fit. With no other car and COE ending soon, he will join the fray and compete with the lower income buyer.

 

Thus, the statistics about the clearing the rich buyer when COE was high is not true and never will be true. Don't believe the reviews.

 

[Loo]

Your consideration factor when buying property - which one will gain more

 

Your consideration factor when buying car - which one will lose less

 

different. :)

Why r u guys comparing buying cars to property , totally different magnitude and ball game.

 

Cars at most lose 10+ thousands . Property can lose in millions ... N go bankrupt.

 

Relax la. Car max lose 45k. When Coe become 2-3k

[Char]

Not true. Some rich buyer also smart. Wait until price is right i.e. below 20k to buy. Why spend additional 60-70k give government. One such person is my big boss. Earn so much (5 digit) but still driving a Honda Fit. With no other car and COE ending soon, he will join the fray and compete with the lower income buyer.

 

Thus, the statistics about the clearing the rich buyer when COE was high is not true and never will be true. Don't believe the reviews.

I like your boss ! He is practical type ! No hao lian ! Smart ! That's why rich become richer !

[Fruit-tart]

Yah, those sicko really sick!!!

 

Was waiting for the COE to drop then the PQP will also drop, and I can renew another 10 years for my ride to save some moolas. KNN now liddat, shitty stuff...

 

And maybe pretty soon, we have no taxi companies operating taxis. All these companies change to manage private hires...kekeke

ya lor... not fair lehh.. private taxis also considered taxis wad..should hv their own category of coe.. 

[helloeveryone]

Why r u guys comparing buying cars to property , totally different magnitude and ball game.

 

Cars at most lose 10+ thousands . Property can lose in millions ... N go bankrupt.

 

Relax la. Car max lose 45k. When Coe become 2-3k

I agree. At max losing 45k.

[Imac]

Not true. Some rich buyer also smart. Wait until price is right i.e. below 20k to buy. Why spend additional 60-70k give government. One such person is my big boss. Earn so much (5 digit) but still driving a Honda Fit. With no other car and COE ending soon, he will join the fray and compete with the lower income buyer.

 

Thus, the statistics about the clearing the rich buyer when COE was high is not true and never will be true. Don't believe the reviews.

Your boss like my boss...

 

My boss driving a COE renewed Nissan March 1.0 Manual car...

 

[Limwsv]

Not true. Some rich buyer also smart. Wait until price is right i.e. below 20k to buy. Why spend additional 60-70k give government. One such person is my big boss. Earn so much (5 digit) but still driving a Honda Fit. With no other car and COE ending soon, he will join the fray and compete with the lower income buyer.

 

Thus, the statistics about the clearing the rich buyer when COE was high is not true and never will be true. Don't believe the reviews.

 

Don't think you will change your mind..   But just as a correction to the general public

 

Somewhere along the line in all my cut and paste, some text got dropped.

 

You are perfectly correct that in the scrapping batch of drivers plus the buyers that join in the auction that it is not a progressive queue, ie from richest to richer to mr joe average.  Within every bid, there will be a bell curve of buyers ranging from our friend fruit-tart to our friend forte (bmw520).  This reflect the pool of ex-owners.

 

The key thing is that the top 20% percentile don't care about COE prices.  They are present in every bidding.  As such, the 140K of households are distributed across 3 years of bidding, ie every 3 years they change cars.

 

However, the rest of us are not that fortunate, and most hold for 10 years.  So in the missing text, I mentioned this and suggested the more accurate method is to model the income distribution as a bell curve.    What we are seeing is that the mean of bell curve has been shifting leftwards as the richer buyers purchase their cars and exit the market.  Leaving the poorer ones... that's why the purchasing power has to drop.

 

Of course, the next auction, this bell curve get refresh and the next batch of top 20% percentile participates.  But the number of buyers left in the 60% - 80% have been reduced by previous successively auctions.  So the mean move leftwards again.

 

If you cannot imagine this, then in Physics, when water is boiled, the higher energy water molecules first change into steam and leave the pot, then the colder water molecules next boil and so on... it's the same principle.

 

The missing text also mention that you can use statistical methods to calculate, but my maths is seriously lousy.  So, instead I use an approximation.

 

But hey, the approximation method is good enough as a rough guide to the falling prices.

 

But hey, you can cup your ears and shut your eyes or not even read this, so it's okay 

 

BBTW, you can even add more dislikes.. it's okay too 

 

BBBTW, someone also mention that income table is unrealistic.  I agree that too, income table is not reflective of actual wealth, there may be a number of low income households with high net worth... 

 

However, since I have never seen a wealth table published before, the income table is a stand-in.  And I think it is a reasonable stand-in for two reasons.  first statistically, the number of low income but high worth is probably small as the tendency is high worth attracts high income, ie capital return on investments shows up as income too.  And high income tends to accumulate savings, become high worth in the process. 

 

So, it may not be a perfect mapping that the top 20% income earners are the top 20% wealthy households in Singapore, but as long as the mapping is 80% accurate, it is good enough for our approximation.

Edited April 21, 2016 by Limwsv

[Check13]

just wondering, if u said the rich change cars every year, wouldn't they join back the pool every year? and maybe the next batch of less rich then join back every 2 years? if this goes on and on, your water will always be full after 1 year because those that evaporated condensed back n join in 1 yr later?

just wondering about the logic...

[Audi2016]

Not true. Some rich buyer also smart. Wait until price is right i.e. below 20k to buy. Why spend additional 60-70k give government. One such person is my big boss. Earn so much (5 digit) but still driving a Honda Fit. With no other car and COE ending soon, he will join the fray and compete with the lower income buyer.

 

Thus, the statistics about the clearing the rich buyer when COE was high is not true and never will be true. Don't believe the reviews.

I think 60-70k difference not v significant to truly rich.

 

5 figure income per month is also quite suggestive. Can be $10,000 or $99,999 and both is very far apart. By MCF standards, below $30K isn't truly rich.

[Axela72]

And his boss could be a "miser" instead of "smart" or humble

I think 60-70k difference not v significant to truly rich.

 

5 figure income per month is also quite suggestive. Can be $10,000 or $99,999 and both is very far apart. By MCF standards, below $30K isn't truly rich.

Edited April 21, 2016 by Axela72

[Limwsv]

just wondering, if u said the rich change cars every year, wouldn't they join back the pool every year? and maybe the next batch of less rich then join back every 2 years? if this goes on and on, your water will always be full after 1 year because those that evaporated condensed back n join in 1 yr later?

just wondering about the logic...

 

why do you put words in my mouth that I did not even say or even hint at?

 

The top 20% only change their cars once every 3 years, the rest probably anything from 5 - 10 years.  As long as 80% of that band acts that way, the assumption holds.  Ie income = 100K per month but hold car to ten years exist, income =2.5K per month but change car every year also exist.

 

But the law of mass numbers simply subsume them.  It's the same principle in thermodynamics.  Water molecules of all energy level exist even in cold water, evaporation still happens even at 1 degree.

 

And don't you think you are ridiculous suggesting that the car ownership group changes car every year?  I have already shown a table to everyone the rate of change of scrappage from year to year all the way back to 2005.  Someone has to be owning those pre-own cars?  And the mix of new cars and pre-owned cars has to stay within the 600 000 cars limit?

 

Anyway, as I say, those who already close their mind won't want to understand....  Newbies will and newbies are the ones who are buying the cars, not you.  

[Check13]

I didn't say everyone change every year so don't be ridiculous too in putting those words in my mouth. what I'm just saying is, all these changing cars things, would it overlap after a while n the kettle will always be full?

don't need to be so defensive about what I said. it's wasn't at you and I'm just trying to c if my logic makes any sense. u keep an open mind about things too please.

[RadX]

I didn't say everyone change every year so don't be ridiculous too in putting those words in my mouth. what I'm just saying is, all these changing cars things, would it overlap after a while n the kettle will always be full?

don't need to be so defensive about what I said. it's wasn't at you and I'm just trying to c if my logic makes any sense. u keep an open mind about things too please.

 

 

ignore the troll lah.  You can see the dimwit goes into a whirlwind with his prata logic and sounds like a senile retiree with too much bloody time on his hands and uses the same economic theory to fulfil his desires.

[Ttl1976]

u mean yr boss bought car when coe is 90k too? the subject I am answering is on whether those bought at 90k coe will only buy when coe is cheaper or at anytime when they feel like it anot

i can answer u.

i change when i saw a model i like.

coe is not my considering factor

[RadX]

why do you put words in my mouth that I did not even say or even hint at?

 

The top 20% only change their cars once every 3 years, the rest probably anything from 5 - 10 years.  As long as 80% of that band acts that way, the assumption holds.  Ie income = 100K per month but hold car to ten years exist, income =2.5K per month but change car every year also exist.

 

But the law of mass numbers simply subsume them.  It's the same principle in thermodynamics.  Water molecules of all energy level exist even in cold water, evaporation still happens even at 1 degree.

 

And don't you think you are ridiculous suggesting that the car ownership group changes car every year?  I have already shown a table to everyone the rate of change of scrappage from year to year all the way back to 2005.  Someone has to be owning those pre-own cars?  And the mix of new cars and pre-owned cars has to stay within the 600 000 cars limit?

 

Anyway, as I say, those who already close their mind won't want to understand....  Newbies will and newbies are the ones who are buying the cars, not you.  

 

 

kindly look in the mirror and be self aware.  have tolerated you enuf with your nonsense on the same theories and all.  WAtching from teh sidelines and you damn well practice what you preach in 'keeping an open mind'

 

If you do not know how to toe the line, we can help