COE Bidding – 2nd Round of October 2016

[Sktan10]

Aiya, why pay 5K per year when I am paying 1.6K per year now lor .....

 

I am going to squeeze every drop of COE just like the sugarcane man putting the cane in a carousel.

 

Anyway, just heard government will only ease TSDR progressively starting 2018 only.  So property got another year to fall.

 

 

Maybe can get 0% DP Property Deal then.  99/999/SF hor ...... Find some cheap one lor.

 

I tend to buy things when no one want to buy lor ........

 

Bro,you are driving  a 2007 kia carens right?

Your coe I think same like me,16+K.

I also drive the same car like u.

So far car no problem only FC is high.

[therock]

Anyone have look at this figure and can understand what it will mean or affect the number of COE supply? It seem like the data show less people renew their COE in July and Aug, as compare to the number from March to June. This should mean more COE will be available after Jan, if the data is correct, anyone can comment?

 

 

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/Monthly_COE_Revalidation.pdf

My interpretation of the chart from your link is that there are increasing number of people who are renewing their COEs in general, so the net effect is less new COEs for new cars.

I don't know if there will be more COEs after Jan... sorry 

[merc280v6]

Can't you tell they are the same person. Lol.

Hahaha ... yes I also think so lah Edited October 20, 2016 by merc280v6

[Pocy]

Anyone have look at this figure and can understand what it will mean or affect the number of COE supply? It seem like the data show less people renew their COE in July and Aug, as compare to the number from March to June. This should mean more COE will be available after Jan, if the data is correct, anyone can comment?

 

 

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/Monthly_COE_Revalidation.pdf

Reading too much into historical data may not help much IMHO. Eventually, it is the policy. Govt decides, otherwise why called Govt.

[gasman]

Your 52k coe is refer to coe rebate? As mentioned, if reserve price in LTA website by your AD is higher than the final coe price closed, it means you have secure the coe. It will show in the website whether your coe is accepted or outbider.

If showroom is empty and not many people would buy, then even coe quota is cut also might not lead to coe increased. 

Thanks for info.

COE rebate is $48K.

[GohLaiChye]

My interpretation of the chart from your link is that there are increasing number of people who are renewing their COEs in general, so the net effect is less new COEs for new cars.

I don't know if there will be more COEs after Jan... sorry 

From the data, it is collect that the COEs supply have reduce because you can see more than 2000 car renew their COE for 5 year in march to June. But you can see that for July and Aug, it have came down alot to only 800+. This will mean more car will be scrape during this period, and it will take about 3 month before this scrape car is bring back to the COE, if I am not wrong.

[gasman]

When you visit the LTA website, it will inform you that you are successful.

Just key in your NRIC no.

The higher reserve means that your AD placed a buffer, so you will get your COE.

However you won't see that extra cash in your pocket. It just means you have a 'powerful' AD who is willing to go all out to get your COE. No top up games by them. 

So what car did you get?

 

Thanks for info.

 

Got the CX-5. But only collect car in December, which is fine by me.

[merc280v6]

Anyone have look at this figure and can understand what it will mean or affect the number of COE supply? It seem like the data show less people renew their COE in July and Aug, as compare to the number from March to June. This should mean more COE will be available after Jan, if the data is correct, anyone can comment?

 

 

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/Monthly_COE_Revalidation.pdf

When LTA cuts COE quota, prices will shoot up.

When they release more quota, COE prices may soften (by only a bit ... forget the $10K COE days - that will never happen again!).

 

Between the two book end cases, I am sure that the LTA scholars have an optimization model/tool to forecast the "correct" quota to release per quarter, to MAXIMIZE revenue.

 

Take for example Honda vs Ferrari sales in SG.

One business model is to sell cars in bulk to the masses, at a decent margin.

While the other is to sell little, but making a super-high margin on each.

Bottom line question will be: which business model brings in the highest revenue?

I know Ferrari sales people have grand celebrations each year end, for accomplishing just 2-digit sales!

 

So, coming back to COE quotas released, correlated to successful bid prices, I believe the LTA scholars have found their 'Golden Search' optimal point to MAXIMIZE revenue for each quarter's release.

 

Do not try to fight the system. Relent and accept one's position!

Edited October 20, 2016 by merc280v6

[therock]

Thanks for info.

 

Got the CX-5. But only collect car in December, which is fine by me.

Sweet ride, Mazda makes good interiors.. 

[Apple-Tree]

Yup, but mine is a 2008 Carens.

 

Exactly, to date, never breakdown on the road before.  Of course, preventive maintenance is key.

 

And yes, FC is a problem at 8.5km/L.

 

 

 

 

Bro,you are driving  a 2007 kia carens right?

Your coe I think same like me,16+K.

I also drive the same car like u.

So far car no problem only FC is high.

 

Wait. I did not say that or at any time a 10K near 10K target.

 

I am asking for a reasonable pricing to car hor. For the exact figure, I will leave it to your figment of imagination.

 

 

 

 

Haha ... IC. Remember Fruit Tart always hoping for COE to drop to $10K. Your target is not far from hers. Optimistic .... continue to wait lor. You have time and choice. LOL

 

It is the demand and supply thingy. I suspect people are buying cars ONLINE instead of going to show room.

 

I call for calm for all the SE in SG, when circumstances permit, your customer will return.

 

 

5K is the new 1.6K now. Looks like you have a 2008/9 car.

 

BM has revised their prices up significantly after yesterday's bidding results. I'm sure the rest of them will follow suite.

 

I think this weekend showrooms will be quite empty again. Yah, you can buy now bcos no one wants to buy liao..

 

[Ben5266]

Anyone have look at this figure and can understand what it will mean or affect the number of COE supply? It seem like the data show less people renew their COE in July and Aug, as compare to the number from March to June. This should mean more COE will be available after Jan, if the data is correct, anyone can comment?

 

 

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/Monthly_COE_Revalidation.pdf

The re-validated for Jul-Aug has already taken into account for Nov-Jan COE supply.

 

Interestingly, Jul-Sep total scrap reduced. Re-validate also reduced. Hmm.... LTA got do hand-leg?

If re-validate trend continue to be low, like below 1k then got change Feb-Apr allocation will increase.

 

But another factor is this.

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M06-Vehs_by_Type.pdf

 

Look at the acceleration of Rental card since Jan 2016. 

 

Dec 29369 1381 Jan 30433 1064 Feb 31257 824 Mar 32545 1288 Apr 33997 1452 May 36002 2005 Jun 38353 2351 Jul 40604 2251 Aug 43462 2858 Sep 45917 2455

The momentum is still strong for the rental car.

Based on this pace, we will have 2 (Ubergrab) to 1 taxi by year end. (52k rental car/27k Taxi)

Almost 80k "taxi" on the road.

So, it will be very easy for anyone to grab a "taxi" now.

No need private car.

[13177]

Coe cut also must see how many is down, if the number down is not that big, maybe it would not have a big impact on the coe pricing?!

[Kusje]

Looks like many people got their coe in this round. All ADs really scare the coe quota cut.

 

Isn't the number of people getting their coe = coe quota?

 

What's it gotta do with ADs being scared?

[Bugyeo]

Hahaha ... yes I also think so lah ð

Apple-Tree is Fruit Tart!

 

It's so blardy obvious.

Come to think about it Apple=Fruit

[13177]

Isn't the number of people getting their coe = coe quota?

 

What's it gotta do with ADs being scared?

They scare wait next round quota cut, but more people come in to bid, then they might never able to successfully bid coe for their customer if coe up a lot lo. Thats why most ADs must secure coe in this round coe, if not next few rounds might be uncertain if up or down?!

Edited October 20, 2016 by 13177

[merc280v6]

Ben5266:

I don't think the majority of LCR Long-term car renters even plan to use them as taxis.

To many, the idea of a long-term leased car, at very manageable ($1,000+) monthly payments, without an up-front 30% d/p and not needing to pay for road tax and incur zero maintenance cost (yup, not even changing tyres!!), is already a big attraction

[gasman]

Sweet ride, Mazda makes good interiors.. 

 

Was considering the Harrier. But buying from PI & the driving engagement just didn't suit me.

[AhChong]

My interpretation of the chart from your link is that there are increasing number of people who are renewing their COEs in general, so the net effect is less new COEs for new cars.

I don't know if there will be more COEs after Jan... sorry

The pqp for Jun is cheaper in Jun and July. 46k and 48 k for cat a and b respectively in Jun.

July is 49k and 50k.

 

The renewal can be from any period though most will renew during the last few months. So you have to know from which dates registered formally that renewed their Coe.

 

Also I believe the peak of Coe expiry is closer to the first half of the year.

 

Nevertheless, it is pretty encouraging that less are renewing for those that hope Coe prices will come off. However, it may also be because people are flocking to LCR and PHP cars as they cannot afford the lump sum payment of a 5 year Coe, hence less renewal and more LCR cars.

 

Cat A is the most affected ones. Cat B cars are not as likely to drop much due to the inflow of rich foreigners who does not depend on our economy for their bread and butter issues like buying a big car.