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COE Bidding – 1st Round of November 2017


Carbon82
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As mentioned before, the previous growth rate was 0.25% which translates into 10 additional cars out of every 4,000, 0% growth would mean 10 cars less than before, there would be no impact to COE price.

COE price will increase drastically in 2020 to 2021 when COE quota starts to reduce by 50% and even more, the $90k and $100k COE situation will repeat again.

 

For now there is no need to predict COE price because the fluctuation wont be big. If intend to buy new car better buy before end 2018 or latest by 2019.

 

LTA got say will cut COE by 50% in 2020/2021 meh?

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LTA got say will cut COE by 50% in 2020/2021 meh?

I think he meant the replacement aka expiring COEs will be much lesser at that time.
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too many people buying cars in the past 2 weeks.

In my office, already 3 changing cars, i heard from my relatives, his boss change car, his friend change car...

 

COE this round will definitely go up.

 

Those who traded took guarantee COE will get their COE this round.

Those who bought luxury car will most likely get their COE this round (because profit margin is higher and most dealers wants to secure the COE before Jan18).

 

Those who bought new car without trading in old car, these group of buyers have to wait for another few more round of COE bidding.

 

Good luck to all on Wed.

Friends go see car last weekend.

Toyota and Honda if book now only can collect around next year feb or march.

Audi A3 after discounts around 129K.

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Even with this zero growth policy, it should not affect the COE quota much.

LTA already mentioned in the news but SE and buyers seems to ignore it. My SE keep ask me to order now before too late.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/lta-cuts-vehicle-growth-rate-to-zero-9335560

 

 

LTA added that the adjustment to the vehicle growth rate to zero is not expected to significantly affect the supply of Certificate of Entitlements (COEs), as the COE quota is determined largely by the number of vehicle de-registrations.

 

Your SE from which AD?
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too many people buying cars in the past 2 weeks.

In my office, already 3 changing cars, i heard from my relatives, his boss change car, his friend change car...

 

COE this round will definitely go up.

 

Those who traded took guarantee COE will get their COE this round.

Those who bought luxury car will most likely get their COE this round (because profit margin is higher and most dealers wants to secure the COE before Jan18).

 

Those who bought new car without trading in old car, these group of buyers have to wait for another few more round of COE bidding.

 

Good luck to all on Wed.

Agree. I attended my staff wedding. Spoke ard. A few changed car over last week or so.

 

Asked them why..

 

Esp one guy who just bought a 9 year old Jap car

 

The news is the reason

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As mentioned before, the previous growth rate was 0.25% which translates into 10 additional cars out of every 4,000, 0% growth would mean 10 cars less than before, there would be no impact to COE price.

COE price will increase drastically in 2020 to 2021 when COE quota starts to reduce by 50% and even more, the $90k and $100k COE situation will repeat again.

 

For now there is no need to predict COE price because the fluctuation wont be big. If intend to buy new car better buy before end 2018 or latest by 2019.

If coe wont go to 10k like a decade ago, then why coe can go as high as >90k like last time?

 

Probably max is 70k as during past years, the force has being trying to reduce the bandwidth between the upper & lower limit

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Agree. I attended my staff wedding. Spoke ard. A few changed car over last week or so.

 

Asked them why..

 

Esp one guy who just bought a 9 year old Jap car

 

The news is the reason

most singaporeans won't analyze like mcf members lah. news out, panic and go see AD or PI. you think AD and PI tell you wait or buy now hahaha

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LTA got say will cut COE by 50% in 2020/2021 meh?

 

There is no need for government to cut COE.  Below is the number of cars due for scrap over a period of 12 months moving windows.  You will see that next year there would still be about 8,000 COEs for recycle per month, the figure will decline year over year, till 2021, the amount of COE for recycle will drop to  about 37k, that is about 62% reduction as compare to now.   While some may argue that less scrap car will lead to lower COE demand, in reality is  because of the steep competition for COEs by then, the premium brands would bid aggressively to compete among themselves , as a result pushing up  COE  price.  

 

Year      estimated No. of car due for scrap

2018      97,029

2019      93,088

2020      68,108

2021      37,587 

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most singaporeans won't analyze like mcf members lah. news out, panic and go see AD or PI. you think AD and PI tell you wait or buy now hahaha

AD and PI just want flocks of feathers to fly together. 

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There is no need for government to cut COE.  Below is the number of cars due for scrap over a period of 12 months moving windows.  You will see that next year there would still be about 8,000 COEs for recycle per month, the figure will decline year over year, till 2021, the amount of COE for recycle will drop to  about 37k, that is about 62% reduction as compare to now.   While some may argue that less scrap car will lead to lower COE demand, in reality is  because of the steep competition for COEs by then, the premium brands would bid aggressively to compete among themselves , as a result pushing up  COE  price.  

 

Year      estimated No. of car due for scrap

2018      97,029

2019      93,088

2020      68,108

2021      37,587 

 

Just surprise LTA did not keep some bumper stock to regulate the cycle. They just release back whatever numbers that were deregister. 2020 onwards is unimaginable.   

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Just surprise LTA did not keep some bumper stock to regulate the cycle. They just release back whatever numbers that were deregister. 2020 onwards is unimaginable.

If every year ...... month the same quota more or less, COE price will drop ...... LTA knows that
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There is no need for government to cut COE. Below is the number of cars due for scrap over a period of 12 months moving windows. You will see that next year there would still be about 8,000 COEs for recycle per month, the figure will decline year over year, till 2021, the amount of COE for recycle will drop to about 37k, that is about 62% reduction as compare to now. While some may argue that less scrap car will lead to lower COE demand, in reality is because of the steep competition for COEs by then, the premium brands would bid aggressively to compete among themselves , as a result pushing up COE price.

 

Year estimated No. of car due for scrap

2018 97,029

2019 93,088

2020 68,108

2021 37,587

I think we shd look at latest stats to get the correct coe quota for 2018 onwards i.e.31dec2017? Since latest lta info is 30sep17, then the drought will be earlier from yr 2020..

 

2018:90,249

2019:76,350

2020:47,367

2021:29,025

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Heard KM steady one ..... NG also secured mostly. Which model?

Sir Pocy, it is not KM steady. It is buyer steady willing to pay for high COE. whatever they pay, it is what you have already paid them. 

 

COE $42k, they price $52K budget into car overall cost. so even if COE goes up to $48k still get what. If it really shoot skyhigh, see if they still bid for you?  otherwise might as well give you G-COE. 

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Just surprise LTA did not keep some bumper stock to regulate the cycle. They just release back whatever numbers that were deregister. 2020 onwards is unimaginable.

37k in Y21 vs 97k Y18. That is like 60k coe quota difference
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