The (trade) war has started

[Jamesc]

bro....2008 was the start of the sub-prime crisis lei! Nearly the whole world kana beat-up or sucked into the vacuum.....a few large bank kana and one went insolvent. I remembered as i had bought my car then and coe plumetted in 2009......but most things rebounded the following yr. Its in the psyche of the amdk to spent using future money but asians has different value!

The reason the rebound happened so fast is because US had a very smart US president.

 

For us we had a very smart finance minister.

 

The second reason is US interest rates was very high then and can come down a lot.

 

In 2008 US debt was much lower and they can and did borrow a lot.

 

Today interest rate is so low how to go lower and debt is so high how to borrow more?

 

To put it in a simpler way.

 

In 2008 US had a lot of ammunition to put things right.

 

Today they have no more bullets left.

 

Makan all already because since 2008 not only they bite the bullet they swallowed the whole ammo box.

 

Edited May 23, 2019 by Jamesc

[Nav14]

You are perfectly correct to say China is everyone's favourite customer.

 

Aussies don't like China but need them to buy their iron ore and dirty coal.

 

African also don't like China but need to sell them their minerals.

 

Japan don't like rude and pushy China tourists but need their tourist dollars.

 

So we all need China because they buy from us and provides us money and jobs.

 

But if US stops buying from China they cannot stop but say buy less.

 

Then China need to produce less and buy less from the rest of the world.

 

Buy less iron and coal from Oz and less minerals from Africa and if they make less money send less tourist to us and Japan.

 

Now a 5 or 10% decrease may sound small but China buying billions then the 5 or 10% is not small.

 

Now what is very clear is Trump wants to buy less from China.

 

So China will buy less from everyone else and what will this buying less will do to the world's economy?

 

If US sneezes China and the rest of the world us included will catch a cold.

 

 

I get chills just thinking about this.

 

If anyone is reading my nonsense get a sweater.

 

Your theory works if the Americans are no longer interested in the $500B of Chinese imports, ie do not even bother looking for alternatives. This is unlikely. Other companies and countries will step in to produce and meet America's needs, albeit at a slightly higher cost. The output in the long run should remain unaffected, just that it will be other countries gaining at China's expense. Instead of Singapore having 20% of tourists from China, we will have 10% from China and 10% new tourists from Vietnam, for example, which would have have benefited from the production shifting from China to them, enriching the Vietnamese, who will have more $$ to travel.

Any chills will be temporary, while the adjustment takes place. 

It will be good for world peace in the long run, if China get's pushed back to a certain extent. They have been getting too adventurous, since XJP took over. At the rate they were going and with XJP at the helm, it would have been a matter of time they would have initiated a war.

Come on, does not anyone here get worried over how they have bullied their way through and aggressively claimed SCS as theirs and placed military installations on the islands ? Can't be that blinded, right?

Edited May 23, 2019 by Nav14

[Jamesc]

In 2008 that Obama was damn smart.

 

Constitutional law professor.

 

My bestie Trump as much as I like and support him.

 

Even I have to admit he is really one or two cans short of a six pack.

 

People laugh at him when he said China pays the 25% tariff and not US business and consumers.

 

What a joke.

 

Even his chief economic advisor disagreed with him on TV.

 

I told him sack that idiot. How can he make you look stupid on live TV.

 

On Fox News where all the viewers are Trump supporters.

 

 

Make him look bad to his own fan club.

[Evillusion]

The reason the rebound happened so fast is because US had a very smart US president.

 

For us we had a very smart finance minister.

 

The second reason is US interest rates was very high then and can come down a lot.

 

In 2008 US debt was much lower and they can and did borrow a lot.

 

Today interest rate is so low how to go lower and debt is so high how to borrow more?

 

To put it in a simpler way.

 

In 2008 US had a lot of ammunition to put things right.

 

Today they have no more bullets left.

 

Makan all already because since 2008 not only they bite the bullet they swallowed the whole ammo box.

 

after that crisis they seem to went into a loan frenzy again....forgetting past lessons. Even our bank interest rates forgot to climb up and stayed stagnant for the past decade to spur spending. Many in USA lost their home during the sub-prime ......wondering next one who will kana?

[Jamesc]

after that crisis they seem to went into a loan frenzy again....forgetting past lessons. Even our bank interest rates forgot to climb up and stayed stagnant for the past decade to spur spending. Many in USA lost their home during the sub-prime ......wondering next one who will kana?

Australia.

 

[Evillusion]

Australia.

 

lets hope so....can buy Australia property...

[Angcheek]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG-aEwY0R50

[Angcheek]

Australia.

 

And worst of all .. aussie dumping chinese stocks

[Jamesc]

lets hope so....can buy Australia property...ððð

Double good news for us.

 

The Australian dollar will go down and their property will also go down.

 

[Playtime]

after that crisis they seem to went into a loan frenzy again....forgetting past lessons. Even our bank interest rates forgot to climb up and stayed stagnant for the past decade to spur spending. Many in USA lost their home during the sub-prime ......wondering next one who will kana?

May be that's why Bitcoin price going up

[Evillusion]

May be that's why Bitcoin price going up

[Thaiyotakamli]

So if america not going to buy made in china products, then where will they buy their things?

 

 

From my view this will be another opportunity for other countries like taiwan to import from china and rebadge or relabel the product into made in taiwan and ship to usa. You know something like bird nest in sg, import from borneo and repackage and label it made in singapore.

 

So in the end it will be american consumer paying for more for the same product

[Thaiyotakamli]

Trump aside. What does WePay and AliPay do to the Nepal or other local economy ?

These wepay and alipay will somehow affect monetary flow of nepal into the country.

 

Imagine if use credit card, merchant pay to bank commissions fee and bank also earn money from forex rate, local bank also get $$$ transferred from china bank which mean influx of $$$ into nepal economy.

 

But if use wechat and alipay, the transaction is done at china, merchant will also pay to alipay for commission. So those middle man profit will benefit china banks and alipay.

 

So in short got tourist but no tourist dollar coming into nepal

[Voodooman]

I don't understand, many think XJP is the man and it is not a collective decision making body running China. The draft agreement is also negotiated by Liu, his key man, but they are now reversing position. So what has changed? Is it a strategy to buy time?

[Civic2000]

Trump said the taxes collected from tariffs imposed on goods imported from China is so much more than the 16billion aid given to the farmers.

 

The taxes on imported goods are paid by importers and are eventually paid by the US consumers. So this is the case of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

[Happily1986]

These wepay and alipay will somehow affect monetary flow of nepal into the country.

 

Imagine if use credit card, merchant pay to bank commissions fee and bank also earn money from forex rate, local bank also get $$$ transferred from china bank which mean influx of $$$ into nepal economy.

 

But if use wechat and alipay, the transaction is done at china, merchant will also pay to alipay for commission. So those middle man profit will benefit china banks and alipay.

 

So in short got tourist but no tourist dollar coming into nepal

Still have money inflow lah cos got spending but just that Alipay takes a cut. In the default scenario, the fella spends $100 using cash, Alipay gets nothing.

 

But of course one can also argue that by extending Alipay into Nepal, the latter is creating more sales opportunities by improving the ease of payment.

[Voodooman]

Still have money inflow lah cos got spending but just that Alipay takes a cut. In the default scenario, the fella spends $100 using cash, Alipay gets nothing.

 

But of course one can also argue that by extending Alipay into Nepal, the latter is creating more sales opportunities by improving the ease of payment.

Nepal has foreign exchange control. Alipay and wechat can be used to bring money out from Nepal.

[Jamesc]

So if america not going to buy made in china products, then where will they buy their things?

 

 

From factories in Vietnam, Philippines and Thailand.

 

The trade war is good for Asean countries.