COE Bidding – 1st Round of August 2018

[MangoT]

Your is confirm guarantee bid or non guarantee bid bro?

With 6 bids guaranteed one. Gt it on 1st bid.. Meaning my jazz may arrive earlier than advised date: jan2019?

Congrats at least you got your COE. COE is valid for 6 months and AD may apply for extension if the car delayed (as what I heard). I last month booked a car that will come in Jan or Feb 2019 and SE said the company will not bid for COE until the car arrive. So I am waiting patiently.

Thks bro. Mine too (jazz 1.3lx) is advised arrival to be Jan/feb 2019 too, bt gt coe on 1st bid. Does it means may have chance to get new car earlier??

I donât mind to wait for six months if trade in car with them ... can drive for free during this period !

But I no car to trade in, no car to drive now too..

[BobbyTan_74287]

With 6 bids guaranteed one. Gt it on 1st bid.. Meaning my jazz may arrive earlier than advised date: jan2019?

Thks bro. Mine too (jazz 1.3lx) is advised arrival to be Jan/feb 2019 too, bt gt coe on 1st bid. Does it means may have chance to get new car earlier??

But I no car to trade in, no car to drive now too..

[awhtc]

I was playing around with the COE data.  I thought the number of unsuccessful bids in the earlier COE tender would indicate the COE price trend.

 

To my surprise, there is no correlation for both Cat A and Cat B in my charts.  The other charts on COE supply versus price give a stronger correlation.

 

Hence, in this quarter given the overall higher COE quota, the COE for Cat A and B might just hover around current prices by +/- $2k if the demand continues to be driven by car owners and not taxis or PHVs expanding their fleet.

[Philipkee]

I was playing around with the COE data. I thought the number of unsuccessful bids in the earlier COE tender would indicate the COE price trend.

 

To my surprise, there is no correlation for both Cat A and Cat B in my charts. The other charts on COE supply versus price give a stronger correlation.

 

Hence, in this quarter given the overall higher COE quota, the COE for Cat A and B might just hover around current prices by +/- $2k if the demand continues to be driven by car owners and not taxis or PHVs expanding their fleet.

It might mean that there are many people who bidded $2 -$1000??just to try their luck so there might be 1000 unsuccessful bids in one cycle but the number of bids that actually get rolled over might be much lesser than that.

 

Maybe that's why there is no correlation cos one would expect then pent up demand from cycle a to carry on in cycle b but it turns out the pent up demand is not that great.

[awhtc]

Yes, there might be many opportunistic bids.

[Carbon82]

Hello ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, new thread started for almost 24 hours liao. Kindly carry on your discussions there.

 

COE Bidding – 2nd Round of August 2018.

 

All your feedbacks are heard, and some adjustments (within my means) made. Do share with me whether you like it or not. Thank you for your support...

[Dafansu]

I was playing around with the COE data. I thought the number of unsuccessful bids in the earlier COE tender would indicate the COE price trend.

 

To my surprise, there is no correlation for both Cat A and Cat B in my charts. The other charts on COE supply versus price give a stronger correlation.

 

Hence, in this quarter given the overall higher COE quota, the COE for Cat A and B might just hover around current prices by +/- $2k if the demand continues to be driven by car owners and not taxis or PHVs expanding their fleet.

unsuccesful bids can give indicative demand but i think there’s also a bulk of people from this trying their luck with low bids say 10k, 20k. This may distort the data? Edited August 18, 2018 by Dafansu

[EvaEva]

It might mean that there are many people who bidded $2 -$1000??just to try their luck so there might be 1000 unsuccessful bids in one cycle but the number of bids that actually get rolled over might be much lesser than that.

 

Maybe that's why there is no correlation cos one would expect then pent up demand from cycle a to carry on in cycle b but it turns out the pent up demand is not that great.

 

The car market in Singapore in an oligopoly 'controlled' by a few major players. With a fixed quota, the few major players can set the price they want to sell their cars with COE included. Once their total orders reach say 70 percent of the total quota by pricing their cars at certain price level, smaller players cannot price high because they will not sell. Hence, to predict the COE price, we need to look at the few major ADs' selling price. Base on their selling prices, we can predict the COE prices for the next round taking into consideration the least profit margin they are willing to take if demand is high and the fat margin if demand is not so high.