Fewer COEs for next three months starting from February

[Lotr8445r]

Economy sentiment is one of the factors that may affect COE prices, You may not have been around long enough, seen and read enough to know that.

What you have provided is just a period but not a consolidation of many period/years against coe price trend.

 

How can us, layman, able to visualize coe price is proportional to economic sentiment tend then?

 

Btw, past few years ago, hearsay economic (oil & gas industries crisis) very bad. Does that reflect the coe price is much lower than now?

Edited March 13, 2019 by Lotr8445r

[Dafansu]

What you have provided is just a period but not a consolidation of many period/years against coe price trend.

 

How can us, layman, able to visualize coe price is proportional to economic sentiment tend then?

 

Btw, past few years ago, hearsay economic (oil & gas industries crisis) very bad. Does that reflect the coe price is much lower than now?

 

Past few years is how many years ago? Does the PQP appended below reflects a lower coe price now or does it reflect a higher price now? There are several factors to consider such as veh growth rate, recession, vehicle age, entry of private hire, govt policy such as VES etc, Economy is just one of them. Every of these macro or micro reason co-relates to each other. The topic has been discussed many times, just read through it, nobody can predict exactly where it's heading. 

 

 

$2 COE

On 19 November 2008 at 4pm, a loud crash was heard simultaneously at the Leng Kee and Ubi motor belts. It was the sound of the Category A COE (certificate of entitlement) price crashing to just $2. The same cert for new cars below 1600c cost $10,455 two weeks earlier.

 

This COE crash occurred in the midst of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis that saw Singapore’s economy enter a technical recession. But a weak economy and even weaker consumer sentiment were not the only reasons for the $2 COE.

 

https://www.torque.com.sg/features/2-coe/

 

 

Prevailing Quota Premium (3 months average)

 

Cat A

Jan 2014: 76109

Jun 2014: 71672

Jan 2015: 65607

Jun 2015: 66107

Jan 2016: 56633

Jun 2016: 46454

Jan 2017: 50645

Jun 2017: 50625

Jan 2018: 42970

Jun 2018: 38214

Jan 2019: 26047

Feb 2019: 25727

Mar 2019: 25525

 

Cat B

Jan 2014: 82333

Jun 2014: 76872

Jan 2015: 72726

Jun 2015: 74629

Jan 2016: 58615

Jun 2016: 48479

Jan 2017: 52660

Jun 2017: 54088

Jan 2018: 52271

Jun 2018: 37906

Jan 2019: 31335

Feb 2019: 31933

Mar 2019: 33018

Edited March 13, 2019 by Dafansu

[Lotr8445r]

Past few years is how many years ago? Does the PQP appended below reflects a lower coe price now or does it reflect a higher price now? There are several factors to consider such as veh growth rate, recession, vehicle age, entry of private hire, govt policy such as VES etc, Economy is just one of them. Every of these macro or micro reason co-relates to each other. The topic has been discussed many times, just read through it, nobody can predict exactly where it's heading.

 

 

$2 COE

On 19 November 2008 at 4pm, a loud crash was heard simultaneously at the Leng Kee and Ubi motor belts. It was the sound of the Category A COE (certificate of entitlement) price crashing to just $2. The same cert for new cars below 1600c cost $10,455 two weeks earlier.

 

This COE crash occurred in the midst of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis that saw Singaporeâs economy enter a technical recession. But a weak economy and even weaker consumer sentiment were not the only reasons for the $2 COE.

 

https://www.torque.com.sg/features/2-coe/

 

 

Prevailing Quota Premium (3 months average)

 

Cat A

Jan 2014: 76109

Jun 2014: 71672

Jan 2015: 65607

Jun 2015: 66107

Jan 2016: 56633

Jun 2016: 46454

Jan 2017: 50645

Jun 2017: 50625

Jan 2018: 42970

Jun 2018: 38214

Jan 2019: 26047

Feb 2019: 25727

Mar 2019: 25525

 

Cat B

Jan 2014: 82333

Jun 2014: 76872

Jan 2015: 72726

Jun 2015: 74629

Jan 2016: 58615

Jun 2016: 48479

Jan 2017: 52660

Jun 2017: 54088

Jan 2018: 52271

Jun 2018: 37906

Jan 2019: 31335

Feb 2019: 31933

Mar 2019: 33018

$2 coe is due to assignable cause. Anything that is not the norm should be discarded in the equation. All you have provided is the PQP rate that is correspond to the coe quota.

 

what does it got to do with the economic sentiment?. Maybe a graph or data on the ecnonmic sentiment can confirm your hypothesis.

[Dafansu]

$2 coe is due to assignable cause. Anything that is not the norm should be discarded in the equation. All you have provided is the PQP rate that is correspond to the coe quota.

 

what does it got to do with the economic sentiment?. Maybe a graph or data on the ecnonmic sentiment can confirm your hypothesis.

 

like what I had mentioned earlier veh growth rate, recession, vehicle age, entry of private hire, govt policy such as VES etc, Economy all will affect the pricing.  There are quite a number of variables. I don't think anyone, not even LTA can come out with a chart or graph to show how each factor will affect it. If you think otherwise just be it. 

Edited March 13, 2019 by Dafansu

[Vinceng]

One sector that many private car buyers overlook are repossessed cars.

 

Dealers snap them up at a steal and sell at a  huge profit.

Edited March 13, 2019 by Vinceng

[Lotr8445r]

$2 coe is due to assignable cause. Anything that is not the norm should be discarded in the equation. All you have provided is the PQP rate that is correspond to the coe quota.

 

what does it got to do with the economic sentiment?. Maybe a graph or data on the ecnonmic sentiment can confirm your hypothesis.

Some balless guy give me a dislike by commenting need to be realist. Isn’t my post earlier,highlight above on requesting data/ graph to support one’s assumption is all about realistic?

Only those un realistic folk keep humping every now and then on enconmic is not doing well. Since when does enconmic doing well ever come out from these folk mouth?

Edited March 13, 2019 by Lotr8445r

[Dafansu]

Some balless guy give me a dislike by commenting need to be realist. Isn’t my post earlier,highlight above on requesting data/ graph to support one’s assumption is all about realist?

Only those un realist folk keep humping every now and then on enconmic is not doing well. Since when does enconmic doing well ever come out from these folk?

 

It's definitely not me. I don't do such thing, but then the dislike thing don't affect anything right. 

 

Maybe share some articles for reading instead. There are few so called motoring experts in these appended articles since year 2015, maybe can check if they can come out with a economic chart. I'm just a typical car owner that does my research and does my sharing here. Hope it helps.

 

 

11 Factors That Would Affect COE Premiums in 2019

https://www.motorist.sg/article/330/11-factors-that-would-affect-coe-premiums-in-2019

 

Many experts who spoke on the dropping COE prices cited weak consumer sentiment in the face of uncertain economic outlook for 2019.

 

 

Review for 2018 COE & PQP Prediction for February 2019

https://www.sgcashncars.com/review-for-2018-coe-pqp-prediction-for-february-2019/

 

Factor 2: Continued Economic Weakness

 

 

Small-car COE prices lowest in over 8 years in latest tender -2018

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/weak-consumer-sentiment-causes-coes-to-end-mostly-lower

 

Mr Ron Lim, head of sales and marketing at Nissan agent Tan Chong Motor, said: "The market has been very weak. I think buyers are apprehensive of the uncertain economic outlook for 2019."

 

 

COE trend seen continuing in 2017

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/coe-trend-seen-continuing-in-2017

 

"The drop in passenger-car premiums in the first tender in December is reflective of the weaker buying sentiment, possibly due to the worsening economic sentiment," says Mr Lim, the general manager of the authorised Nissan distributor.

 

Mr Tang says: "The small car COE premium should be stable in the first half of 2017 but for H2, we have to wait and see. Most people are very cautious because of the economy

 

"Used-car sales have been good in 2016 and will continue to be good in 2017 because of the economic uncertainty," says Mr Tang, who is also managing director of Yong Lee Seng Motor

 

 

 

More COEs for May-July, but no big price falls expected - 2016

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/coe-quotas-nearly-15-may-july-period

 

But Mr Ricky Tay, managing director of motor trader RTMT, believed there could be a “gradual softening” in car premiums over time, especially for Category B cars.

 

“With the bleak economic outlook and increasing number of retrenchments, consumers will be more careful in buying cars,

 

 

COE prices mostly down amid economic fears - 2015

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/coe-prices-mostly-down-amid-economic-fears

 

Certificate of entitlement (COE) prices ended mostly lower in the latest tender yesterday, as buying sentiment remained subdued on the back of an increasingly uncertain economic outlook.

 

 

 

GLOBAL RECESSION: IS IT HAPPENING AND HOW WILL IT AFFECT US

 

http://www.fivestarsandamoon.com/2015/08/global-recession-is-it-happening-and-how-will-it-affect-us/

 

Property prices and COE prices, a fair indicator of the buying sentiment in Singapore, have been cooling off for some time now.

Edited March 13, 2019 by Dafansu

[Ct3833]

One sector that many private car buyers overlook are repossessed cars.

 

Dealers snap them up at a steal and sell at a  huge profit.

Vinceng,

if have such lobang , PM me please. Thank you. 

It's definitely not me. I don't do such thing, but then the dislike thing don't affect anything right. 

 

Maybe share some articles for reading instead. There are few so called motoring experts in these appended articles since year 2015, maybe can check if they can come out with a economic chart. I'm just a typical car owner that does my research and does my sharing here. Hope it helps.

 

 

11 Factors That Would Affect COE Premiums in 2019

https://www.motorist.sg/article/330/11-factors-that-would-affect-coe-premiums-in-2019

 

Many experts who spoke on the dropping COE prices cited weak consumer sentiment in the face of uncertain economic outlook for 2019.

 

 

Review for 2018 COE & PQP Prediction for February 2019

https://www.sgcashncars.com/review-for-2018-coe-pqp-prediction-for-february-2019/

 

Factor 2: Continued Economic Weakness

 

 

Small-car COE prices lowest in over 8 years in latest tender -2018

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/weak-consumer-sentiment-causes-coes-to-end-mostly-lower

 

Mr Ron Lim, head of sales and marketing at Nissan agent Tan Chong Motor, said: "The market has been very weak. I think buyers are apprehensive of the uncertain economic outlook for 2019."

 

 

COE trend seen continuing in 2017

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/coe-trend-seen-continuing-in-2017

 

"The drop in passenger-car premiums in the first tender in December is reflective of the weaker buying sentiment, possibly due to the worsening economic sentiment," says Mr Lim, the general manager of the authorised Nissan distributor.

 

Mr Tang says: "The small car COE premium should be stable in the first half of 2017 but for H2, we have to wait and see. Most people are very cautious because of the economy

 

"Used-car sales have been good in 2016 and will continue to be good in 2017 because of the economic uncertainty," says Mr Tang, who is also managing director of Yong Lee Seng Motor

 

 

 

More COEs for May-July, but no big price falls expected - 2016

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/coe-quotas-nearly-15-may-july-period

 

But Mr Ricky Tay, managing director of motor trader RTMT, believed there could be a “gradual softening” in car premiums over time, especially for Category B cars.

 

“With the bleak economic outlook and increasing number of retrenchments, consumers will be more careful in buying cars,

 

 

COE prices mostly down amid economic fears - 2015

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/coe-prices-mostly-down-amid-economic-fears

 

Certificate of entitlement (COE) prices ended mostly lower in the latest tender yesterday, as buying sentiment remained subdued on the back of an increasingly uncertain economic outlook.

 

 

 

GLOBAL RECESSION: IS IT HAPPENING AND HOW WILL IT AFFECT US

 

http://www.fivestarsandamoon.com/2015/08/global-recession-is-it-happening-and-how-will-it-affect-us/

 

Property prices and COE prices, a fair indicator of the buying sentiment in Singapore, have been cooling off for some time now.

you cu table, chut articles, want  to dislike you also cannot.

[Lotr8445r]

It's definitely not me. I don't do such thing, but then the dislike thing don't affect anything right.

 

Maybe share some articles for reading instead. There are few so called motoring experts in these appended articles since year 2015, maybe can check if they can come out with a economic chart. I'm just a typical car owner that does my research and does my sharing here. Hope it helps.

 

 

11 Factors That Would Affect COE Premiums in 2019

https://www.motorist.sg/article/330/11-factors-that-would-affect-coe-premiums-in-2019

 

Many experts who spoke on the dropping COE prices cited weak consumer sentiment in the face of uncertain economic outlook for 2019.

 

 

Review for 2018 COE & PQP Prediction for February 2019

https://www.sgcashncars.com/review-for-2018-coe-pqp-prediction-for-february-2019/

 

Factor 2: Continued Economic Weakness

 

 

Small-car COE prices lowest in over 8 years in latest tender -2018

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/weak-consumer-sentiment-causes-coes-to-end-mostly-lower

 

Mr Ron Lim, head of sales and marketing at Nissan agent Tan Chong Motor, said: "The market has been very weak. I think buyers are apprehensive of the uncertain economic outlook for 2019."

 

 

COE trend seen continuing in 2017

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/coe-trend-seen-continuing-in-2017

 

"The drop in passenger-car premiums in the first tender in December is reflective of the weaker buying sentiment, possibly due to the worsening economic sentiment," says Mr Lim, the general manager of the authorised Nissan distributor.

 

Mr Tang says: "The small car COE premium should be stable in the first half of 2017 but for H2, we have to wait and see. Most people are very cautious because of the economy

 

"Used-car sales have been good in 2016 and will continue to be good in 2017 because of the economic uncertainty," says Mr Tang, who is also managing director of Yong Lee Seng Motor

 

 

 

More COEs for May-July, but no big price falls expected - 2016

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/coe-quotas-nearly-15-may-july-period

 

But Mr Ricky Tay, managing director of motor trader RTMT, believed there could be a âgradual softeningâ in car premiums over time, especially for Category B cars.

 

âWith the bleak economic outlook and increasing number of retrenchments, consumers will be more careful in buying cars,

 

 

COE prices mostly down amid economic fears - 2015

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/coe-prices-mostly-down-amid-economic-fears

 

Certificate of entitlement (COE) prices ended mostly lower in the latest tender yesterday, as buying sentiment remained subdued on the back of an increasingly uncertain economic outlook.

 

 

 

GLOBAL RECESSION: IS IT HAPPENING AND HOW WILL IT AFFECT US

 

http://www.fivestarsandamoon.com/2015/08/global-recession-is-it-happening-and-how-will-it-affect-us/

 

Property prices and COE prices, a fair indicator of the buying sentiment in Singapore, have been cooling off for some time now.

What i am referring is something like what Lotr has post earlier. I am not sure how to join all the link u have posted into the trend for visulization. Picture/graph speak a thousand of words. See link below:

 

https://www.mycarforum.com/uploads/monthly_01_2019/post-824-0-88054400-1548564220.png

Edited March 13, 2019 by Lotr8445r

[Dafansu]

Vinceng,

if have such lobang , PM me please. Thank you.

 

you cu table, chut articles, want to dislike you also cannot.

But I can't cu economic vs COE table. Picture/graph speak a thousand of words for some.

[RogerNg_185295]

Some balless guy give me a dislike by commenting need to be realist. Isnât my post earlier,highlight above on requesting data/ graph to support oneâs assumption is all about realistic?

Only those un realistic folk keep humping every now and then on enconmic is not doing well. Since when does enconmic doing well ever come out from these folk mouth?

I also kena a dislike. But must 看得开。

[Dafansu]

What i am referring is something like what Lotr has post earlier. I am not sure how to join all the link u have posted into the trend for visulization. Picture/graph speak a thousand of words. See link below:

 

https://www.mycarforum.com/uploads/monthly_01_2019/post-824-0-88054400-1548564220.png

Quota vs price is the most general comparison, because the numbers can be extracted easily from LTA and the available quota is likely to affect the pricing the most. These datas can be easily found online done by various vendors.

 

Other factors that may affect pricing such as veh growth rate, recession, vehicle age, entry of private hire, govt policy such as VES, Economy sentiment etc. I don't think anyone will be able to come out with a data set in order to do a chart for comparison; such as economy vs price! Maybe only an economist can do so? Without such chart doesn't mean these factors such as economy do not affect the pricing. I try to see it in a broader perspective to understand where the pricing is heading and others may have a different perspective too.

I also kena a dislike. But must çå¾å¼ã

Not me, I can declare.

[alex976]

No graph no talk. Pls show graph on market sentiment vs coe price. If not, ppls can conclude u are making a 2 cent comment which can be ignored. Ty

Can PM me ur number, I get my subcontractors + suppliers to call u. They can gladly tell u how bad the mkt is.

 

Graph I dun have lah. Facts are like what the brothers here say.

 

Pai seh, I am not some economist. Juz an ordinary dude, hu makes a living in the construction and manufacturing line. See so many people nt getting paid for their goods and services.

[Lotr8445r]

Can PM me ur number, I get my subcontractors + suppliers to call u. They can gladly tell u how bad the mkt is.

 

Graph I dun have lah. Facts are like what the brothers here say.

 

Pai seh, I am not some economist. Juz an ordinary dude, hu makes a living in the construction and manufacturing line. See so many people nt getting paid for their goods and services.

Pardon me, in which of my post claiming that economic is doing well? All i mention is there is no or insignificant correlation between economic vs coe price unless proven with data.

 

I dont need your suppliers or subcons to tell me as i have managed more than 100s of them inclusive worldwide. Btw, they also say enconmic not good like u but still change new cars.

Edited March 13, 2019 by Lotr8445r

[Tvios]

althought some sectors not doing so well, there are some that are doing ok still. I got many friends taking this low coe season to change new cars. Many are paying full cash also, so that not to affect the TDSR. I think most people hope the COEs stay low for a long time, so that can save some money. 

[Vinceng]

Vinceng,

if have such lobang , PM me please. Thank you. 

 

 

A very politically correct answer - www.sgcarmart.com is your best friend. 

 

Auction vehicles -

https://www.sgcarmart.com/used_cars/listing.php?CAT=15

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by Vinceng

[Vinceng]

althought some sectors not doing so well, there are some that are doing ok still. I got many friends taking this low coe season to change new cars. Many are paying full cash also, so that not to affect the TDSR. I think most people hope the COEs stay low for a long time, so that can save some money. 

 

Low COE period like now, is the best time to renew COE, especially when your car's PARF is low, and even more so if your car is in good condition and into it's 2nd renewal - no PARF to forgo.

 

When you buy a new car, you are paying all the taxes all over again.

[RogerNg_185295]

Pardon me, in which of my post claiming that economic is doing well? All i mention is there is no or insignificant correlation between economic vs coe price unless proven with data.

 

I dont need your suppliers or subcons to tell me as i have managed more than 100s of them inclusive worldwide. Btw, they also say enconmic not good like u but still change new cars.

Big bosses also say economy no good but drive luxury cars and live in landed property. I agree with you economic conditions have no correlation to coe prices. The rich will just keep on buying regardless of economy contract or expand.