COE Bidding – 1st Round of February 2019

[DACH]

Congrats to those who got their COEs.

[Ct3833]

Actually in @albeniz case, his annual depreciation (based on paper value) is merely $1.8 - 1.9K or about $160/month. Once he decided to renew COE for his Tenna, his balanced COE would be forfeited, and eventually his PARF value too (upon crossing the 10th year mark).

 

So it is a zero sum game to me, given that the PQP may be inching up to >$33K in times to come (basing on current upward trend), and the difference in PQP between now and then is around the amount to he forfeited...

 

Teana is a very spacious and comfortable car. Great that you are enjoying it!

Agree. I didnt read his previous posts but if it is $160 depre per month, earlier renewal makes a lot of sense to mitigate risk. In fact upside risk of COE currently is higher than downside potential. It will only make sense if depre is higher.

Very good advice, appreciate.

Just sharing of ideas and thoughts. Because I am in the same situation as you are.

[Ct3833]

2.0 Teana is very under powered

 

the 2.5 will be a better ride

 

V6 engine but only tax is much higher

Not everyone needs power, some just need the space. And 2.5 would mean higher road tax especially after 50% more in 5 years time.

[Mkl22]

Thanks for sharing. I am asking because as I said , if the depre is 1k per month, and your car is to be due in Dec, then you can afford $1k PQP increase per month of up till $10k more by Dec. But depre of Teana at this age should be lower, you may want to reassess how much increase in PQP is worth waiting.

Aassuming $700 depre per month, you would have $7k PQP of leeway to play with.

Coe towards the end of 2009 was around 17-19k let’s say 20k. So the depreciation is only 2k for his case. Parf is already at rock bottom of 50% of arf. So it’s about $150 loss for every month he renews earlier than the last day.

So if he renews now and coe pqp goes up more than 1.5k by year end he wins. If coe goes down, then he loses the difference in coe plus 1.5k

 

Not sure why you say it’s $7k of PQP as leeway. I think it’s too much.

Ok just saw the post by carbon82.

Edited February 9, 2019 by Mkl22

[Dafansu]

Prevailing Quota Premium (3 months average)

Cat A
Jan 2014: 76109
Jun 2014: 71672
Jan 2015: 65607
Jun 2015: 66107
Jan 2016: 56633
Jun 2016: 46454
Jan 2017: 50645
Jun 2017: 50625
Jan 2018: 42970
Jun 2018: 38214
Jan 2019: 26047
Feb 2019: 25727

Cat B
Jan 2014: 82333
Jun 2014: 76872
Jan 2015: 72726
Jun 2015: 74629
Jan 2016: 58615
Jun 2016: 48479
Jan 2017: 52660
Jun 2017: 54088
Jan 2018: 52271
Jun 2018: 37906
Jan 2019: 31335
Feb 2019: 31933

[Ct3833]

Coe towards the end of 2009 was around 17-19k letâs say 20k. So the depreciation is only 2k for his case. Parf is already at rock bottom of 50% of arf. So itâs about $150 loss for every month he renews earlier than the last day.

So if he renews now and coe pqp goes up more than 1.5k by year end he wins. If coe goes down, then he loses the difference in coe plus 1.5k

 

Not sure why you say itâs $7k of PQP as leeway. I think itâs too much.

Ok just saw the post by carbon82.

I used the assumption of about $600 to $700 of depre per month, so 10 months is about $7k depre in total there about , but that was before I came to know his depre was so low. Sorry for the confusion.

Prevailing Quota Premium (3 months average)

 

Cat A

Jan 2014: 76109

Jun 2014: 71672

Jan 2015: 65607

Jun 2015: 66107

Jan 2016: 56633

Jun 2016: 46454

Jan 2017: 50645

Jun 2017: 50625

Jan 2018: 42970

Jun 2018: 38214

Jan 2019: 26047

Feb 2019: 25727

 

Cat B

Jan 2014: 82333

Jun 2014: 76872

Jan 2015: 72726

Jun 2015: 74629

Jan 2016: 58615

Jun 2016: 48479

Jan 2017: 52660

Jun 2017: 54088

Jan 2018: 52271

Jun 2018: 37906

Jan 2019: 31335

Feb 2019: 31933

Please please stop, I have lost too many praise to you. Everytime you chut table i will have to praise you. Haha.

But looks like cat B PQP is reaching a turning point...hmmmmmm 200 days running avg.

Edited February 9, 2019 by Ct3833

[Mkl22]

Once again, 2 School of thoughts. So for cars like Porsche, Mercedes, Ferrari, Bentley, Lamborghini at the same age and time also $150 loss every month?? LOL

 

For me, The variant to gamble for $1.5k over 10 Months is way way too small, why bother to lose sleep or think so much?? But in actual, many Sinkies think this way. LOL

 

Depends how people see the picture. No right no wrong. Businessman, Directors, Boss and Worker think differently. Worker may want to draw $1k salary monthly and guarantee $12k over a year. A boss may decide to invest $1k ( so in actual is -1k every month, -$12k a year ) for say a possibly $50k profit so he netts $50-12 = $38k

 

Think right and big in correct picture within current Economy market and situation but no everybody thinks the same or make same decisions, just quote above boss vs worker.

 

Good luck!

Loss of 150/mth is solely due to the current coe being forfeited once you renew early.

 

So yes, even Ferrari Bentley also $150/mth.

 

Since he will be for sure renewing, parf and other factors don’t matter. It’s only renew now or in dec2019 and the only difference other than coe pqp to be paid, is the current coe forfeited.

 

Anyway I’m not the one renewing, just giving a different view point on calculation.

Edited February 9, 2019 by Mkl22

[Mkl22]

Agree to your reasoning. Wat I"m trying to say is $150 is just purely "calulator loss" when u press. Which equals "the only difference other than coe pqp to be paid, is the current coe forfeited."

 

But in actual fact is more, so if one choose to forfeit 10mths on a Ferrari or bentley can't be $150/mth x 10. Or even toyota can"t be $150 also

 

If just insist on just want to pay less den renew now, but it may be a "LOSS" base on "TRUE VALUE".

 

$500, $1k, or $5k is not a lot if able to prolong or shorten the life span of a car. Think both ways, sometimes is OK to pay more or sometimes pay less to shorten. :)

 

CT3833 will understand wat I"m saying. "TRUE ACTUAL VALUE", not calculator number.

Ok.

 

Still trying to understand what you and ct3833 mean by the true actual value.

[Dafansu]

I used the assumption of about $600 to $700 of depre per month, so 10 months is about $7k depre in total there about , but that was before I came to know his depre was so low. Sorry for the confusion.

Please please stop, I have lost too many praise to you. Everytime you chut table i will have to praise you. Haha.

But looks like cat B PQP is reaching a turning point...hmmmmmm 200 days running avg.

 

Feel that it will still go down as dealers may need some time to clear the motorshow backlog. Though I may be wrong but have been correct so far since many years back. 

[Wildfaye29]

hoping hoping hoping for 17k cat A

[Pretzelsaurus007]

I also thou the shrink in quota will cause the coe to spike up. Seems like demand is not as strong

 

The shrink in this quarter might not be significant enough to see COE spike. What we are witnessing would likely be the trend, which is a steady increase. This will likely be the case till July's bidding, assuming that the number of vehicles registered between Jan 2009 to March 2009 will be fully scrapped.

 

If my calculation is correct, there will be a bigger dip in COE quota come August 2019 onwards. That is likely the time we see a spike, assuming:

 

1. Demand remains the same

2. Vehicle registered in 2009 will be fully/almost fully scrapped

[Ct3833]

The shrink in this quarter might not be significant enough to see COE spike. What we are witnessing would likely be the trend, which is a steady increase. This will likely be the case till July's bidding, assuming that the number of vehicles registered between Jan 2009 to March 2009 will be fully scrapped.

 

If my calculation is correct, there will be a bigger dip in COE quota come August 2019 onwards. That is likely the time we see a spike, assuming:

 

1. Demand remains the same

2. Vehicle registered in 2009 will be fully/almost fully scrapped

Next year will be quite dry but year after next COE quota should stabilized, the extreamly drought cycle that created by Raymond Lim when he was transport minister will be even out by those who renew 5 years COE starting 3 years ago .

[RogerNg_185295]

we will only know if you are right or wrong in hindsight.

 

nobody can really know what will happen to coe in the future except to say that at the moment trending upward is more likely due to reduction in quota. of course there are those who say that recession is coming but who really knows?

 

anyway, if you decided to buy at the price that you are comfortable with then just enjoy your new car.

Many bought at prices they were comfortable with those last 1 to 2 yrs. Now their car value dropped liked crazy. Therefore your advise buy at the price you are comfortable with is definitely not correct

[Ct3833]

Many bought at prices they were comfortable with those last 1 to 2 yrs. Now their car value dropped liked crazy. Therefore your advise buy at the price you are comfortable with is definitely not correct

Your comment is interesting.  If buying at  a price that one is comfortable with is incorrect, maybe you want to advise what should be correct then?

[Lotr]

Many bought at prices they were comfortable with those last 1 to 2 yrs. Now their car value dropped liked crazy. Therefore your advise buy at the price you are comfortable with is definitely not correct

 

my comments are for the post about buying a car now not 1 to 2 years ago 

[Jumpmanz]

Really got CAT A 6 Bids non G cannot get meh. No top up also will get if no major change in policy I guess. So far like never hear ppl get refund for 6 bid time out. Other than PI.

 

Most ADs will want to fulfill 6 bids NG COE deals. Seldom heard of topping up eg: 3k to secured COE after 6 bidings nowadays.

 

[Mkl22]

deleted

Edited February 10, 2019 by Mkl22

[VictorTQT]

The shrink in this quarter might not be significant enough to see COE spike. What we are witnessing would likely be the trend, which is a steady increase. This will likely be the case till July's bidding, assuming that the number of vehicles registered between Jan 2009 to March 2009 will be fully scrapped.

 

If my calculation is correct, there will be a bigger dip in COE quota come August 2019 onwards. That is likely the time we see a spike, assuming:

 

1. Demand remains the same

2. Vehicle registered in 2009 will be fully/almost fully scrapped

 

Lets see the trend of cat A and cat B.

 

                                   1st bid            2nd bid

cat B:   Jun 2018         $36,000          $33,900

            Jul 2018          $31,000          $32,551

            Aug 2018        $34,381          $32,429

            Sep 2018        $32,001          $31,307

            Oct 2018         $31,301          $31,302

            Nov 2018        $32,302          $31,101

            Dec 2019        $31,001          $31,001

            Jan 2019         $32,200          $33,989

            Feb 2019        $34,509

 

                                   1st bid            2nd bid

cat A:   Jun 2018         $36,426          $34,110

            Jul 2018          $25,000          $32,699

            Aug 2018        $33,798          $31,997

            Sep 2018        $30,209          $28,000

            Oct 2018         $28,457          $25,556

            Nov 2018        $28,199          $25,000

            Dec 2019        $23,568          $25,501

            Jan 2019         $25,920          $26,170

            Feb 2019        $25,689

 

I think the trend for cat A and cat B should be the same. We can see that cat B is stabilized from 2nd bid of September 2018 till 1st bid of January 2019 (5 months) and only started increasing after that. So cat A is stabilized from 2nd bid of November 2018 (2 months later than cat B) and should be stabilized till after 2nd bid of March 2019 before might be increased again. But that is just my guess only.