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Private Property prices......still up or down? Part II

RadX

By RadX,
in Property Buzz

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Sdf4786k

Sdf4786k

Twincharged

Try answering two sentences to have a better idea.

 

1. If the AVERAGE salary goes up by 1.5%, how many % can we expect the top 30% of salary / income to increase? This will also include the income of the non-salaried.

 

2. Private properties should be owned by the ____ perecentile of income earners.

 

I imagine those with both average salary income and mature enough to have a average affordability unit for pte property will be the one that kanna sqeeze out of HDB. maybe both grad and earn 7K per month or so? See HDB appreciate liao, cash out because every one Condo here and there only can have condom, so also buy ?

 

You also notice I use a wider range of numbers from 2000 to 3000 sqft come 2030. 12 years from now.

 

the 2000 psf "maybe" a near possibilty since per qtr we avg 1.5 to 2.5% increments for psf at 1200 to 1300 psf.

 

So base on agration, 1.5 X 4 about 6% per year. If 4 to 6% X 12 years, quite possible to reach 2000 psf. Did not want to put in the 2.5% equation, else too mind-boggling.

 

So possibly the average kanna push out of HDB folks will be the hardest hit and the top tier 30% are those that will be buying property that us mere mortal can only dream of.

 

And thats where the biggest noise will be heard. 

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Chongster

Chongster

6th Gear

Average means 50%? It’s a well known Singapore statistic that 80% live in HDB, so private housing is not for the average guy, and the average guy shouldn’t worry about being pushed out of HDB.

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

I imagine those with both average salary income and mature enough to have a average affordability unit for pte property will be the one that kanna sqeeze out of HDB. maybe both grad and earn 7K per month or so? See HDB appreciate liao, cash out because every one Condo here and there only can have condom, so also buy ?

 

You also notice I use a wider range of numbers from 2000 to 3000 sqft come 2030. 12 years from now.

 

the 2000 psf "maybe" a near possibilty since per qtr we avg 1.5 to 2.5% increments for psf at 1200 to 1300 psf.

 

So base on agration, 1.5 X 4 about 6% per year. If 4 to 6% X 12 years, quite possible to reach 2000 psf. Did not want to put in the 2.5% equation, else too mind-boggling.

 

So possibly the average kanna push out of HDB folks will be the hardest hit and the top tier 30% are those that will be buying property that us mere mortal can only dream of.

 

And thats where the biggest noise will be heard.

In the 80s the middle class can afford a landed.

 

In 2000 they can afford central condo.

 

In 2010 they can afford city fringe condo.

 

In 2020 they can afford outskirt condo or Mickey Mouse condo.

 

By 2030 they can only afford nano condo, maybe MM possible.

 

What noise should I make if I need a GCB now? My teacher got one at 1 million in 1980.

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Invigorated

Invigorated

Supercharged

This property soul VIP has been singing the -ve tune for many years especially after she disposed all her assets. Saw her posts in condo forum.

Second this. Regardless of time and day, it's always down. If it's low, can go lower. If it's up, can also go lower.

 

I've stopped reading after the story started sounding like a broken record after so many years..

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retrozz

retrozz

3rd Gear

Average means 50%? It’s a well known Singapore statistic that 80% live in HDB, so private housing is not for the average guy, and the average guy shouldn’t worry about being pushed out of HDB.

Poor

Average income

Mass affluent

High Net Worth

Billionaires and Famous (okay... may not famous for some).

 

So what is average?

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Lala81

Lala81

Hypersonic

Try answering two sentences to have a better idea.

 

1. If the AVERAGE salary goes up by 1.5%, how many % can we expect the top 30% of salary / income to increase? This will also include the income of the non-salaried.

 

2. Private properties should be owned by the ____ perecentile of income earners.

 

actually her points are valid against a super optimistic projection.

But your point no.1 is also what she didn't mention as well.

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

Not everyone who is in the top 30% of income earners want a private property.

 

It is definitely not a need if one has a HDB, maybe gotten way before one's income grew to those levels.

 

In any case, resale HDB is still on the table even if one earns 1 million every year.

 

I imagine those with both average salary income and mature enough to have a average affordability unit for pte property will be the one that kanna sqeeze out of HDB. maybe both grad and earn 7K per month or so? See HDB appreciate liao, cash out because every one Condo here and there only can have condom, so also buy ?

 

You also notice I use a wider range of numbers from 2000 to 3000 sqft come 2030. 12 years from now.

 

the 2000 psf "maybe" a near possibilty since per qtr we avg 1.5 to 2.5% increments for psf at 1200 to 1300 psf.

 

So base on agration, 1.5 X 4 about 6% per year. If 4 to 6% X 12 years, quite possible to reach 2000 psf. Did not want to put in the 2.5% equation, else too mind-boggling.

 

So possibly the average kanna push out of HDB folks will be the hardest hit and the top tier 30% are those that will be buying property that us mere mortal can only dream of.

 

And thats where the biggest noise will be heard. 

 


She missed a dozen points actually, most likely intentionally.

 

 

actually her points are valid against a super optimistic projection.

But your point no.1 is also what she didn't mention as well.

 

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retrozz

retrozz

3rd Gear

Second this. Regardless of time and day, it's always down. If it's low, can go lower. If it's up, can also go lower.

 

I've stopped reading after the story started sounding like a broken record after so many years..

You are right. I don't think you need to bother about her. She is entitled to her opinions and some of her points are good to note though. [thumbsup]  She might help some investors to be savy - the need to be clear of the potential changes and risks in property. I also heard of broken records of those who bought pre-2010 and make $$$, just because MBT policy then which made damaging effects on the family planning by withholding the BTOs and private properties tenders that were needed in that time. 

 

If you start to know what "tricks" or "innovative ways" developers do to maximise their profits and property folks ra-ra the media....

Don't assume for a moment the Keppel-O&M case is limited to shipping industry. 

IRAS have to fine-tune rules time and again - why? because of creative loopholes.  [smash]

There are too many good and bad points that we can never cover finish.

 

Then again, we all know property buyers are sometimes irrational.  [:p]   

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Sdf4786k

Sdf4786k

Twincharged
(edited)

Not everyone who is in the top 30% of income earners want a private property.

 

It is definitely not a need if one has a HDB, maybe gotten way before one's income grew to those levels.

 

In any case, resale HDB is still on the table even if one earns 1 million every year.

 

 

She missed a dozen points actually, most likely intentionally.

 

some slight correction

 

top 30% of income earners want a private property (but not in Singapore )unless someone else can afford to buy over it at a premium. 

 

Even now, unless you can offload at a price that you want, you will continue to hold it and there is no rush to dump it.

 

And even if a crisis hit, there is an adequate policy in place to prevent someone from stupidly over leverage themselves 

Edited by Sdf4786k
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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

some slight correction

 

top 30% of income earners want a private property (but not in Singapore )unless someone else can afford to buy over it at a premium.

 

Even now, unless you can offload at a price that you want, you will continue to hold it and there is no rush to dump it.

 

And even if a crisis hit, there is an adequate policy in place to prevent someone from stupidly over leverage themselves

I really know those I believe in the top 30% who does not necessarily want private property.

 

One set of relatives continued to live in 4rm flat from day one.

 

The other had been renting for the longest time until recently bought a bungalow. Big household.

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Enye

Enye

Hypersonic

I really know those I believe in the top 30% who does not necessarily want private property.

 

One set of relatives continued to live in 4rm flat from day one.

 

The other had been renting for the longest time until recently bought a bungalow. Big household.

wah top 30% income is how much har?

 

 

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

wah top 30% income is how much har?

 

ð¤ð

I also not sure. Confirm multiple times higher than mine. I suspect they are top 10% as well but hard to say with many sifus keeping many 700K in safes at home.
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Mercs

Mercs

Hypersonic

https://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2018/5/172160/high-capital-growth-for-landed-housing-in-singapore

High Capital Growth For Landed Housing In Singapore

May 25, 2018

 

(Industry experts indicate that now is the best time to invest in Singapore property market)

 

Singapore’s property market has seen a limited supply of landed property over the past five years. Despite the scarcity of landed homes, the number of unsold inventory has been at a record low, with limited freehold supply coming into the market.

 

As of March, unsold landed homes have dropped to 300 units compared to 552 units last December. The URA property price index also shows that prices of landed homes peaked at 179 percent in 2013 before declining 15 percent by Q3 2017.

 

 

Separately, updates on the robust en bloc market and what this means for Singapore property.

 

“By 2030, Singapore is expected to have a 6.9 million population, but as of now, we have 5.79 million. With the national statistics indicating that there are 3.5 people per household, we would be expecting a pent-up demand for 26,429 housing units. Therefore, there should be more demand for housing instead of an oversupply in the coming years."

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