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Private Property prices......still up or down? Part II

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Anyway just read this on a SCMP article on home ownership.

 

This is something related to what i posted earlier that HDB is the underlying bedrock of overwhelming one party political stability in SG. 

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/2154285/home-ownership-push-hong-kong-leader-carrie-lam?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1531098749

 

 

 

 

“In general, home ownership creates conservatism and favours the status quo, as homeowners are concerned [their investments] might be disrupted by social and political change,” Chua Beng Huat, a sociologist at the National University of Singapore, said. “A nation of homeowners, such as Singapore, has definitely contributed to the general political conservatism or political stability.”

 

Edited by Lala81
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Anyway just read this on a SCMP article on home ownership.

 

This is something related to what i posted earlier that HDB is the underlying bedrock of overwhelming one party political stability in SG.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/2154285/home-ownership-push-hong-kong-leader-carrie-lam?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1531098749

it’s an open secret leh

i think LKY ever said ... for people to work hard, to continue to commit in spore (sense of belonging) and support the govt .. the winning formula is HDBeeeeeeeee

 

we will work as hard as beeeeeee ... huat ah!

Edited by Wt_know
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Anyway just read this on a SCMP article on home ownership.

 

This is something related to what i posted earlier that HDB is the underlying bedrock of overwhelming one party political stability in SG. 

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/2154285/home-ownership-push-hong-kong-leader-carrie-lam?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1531098749

 

Yup...

 

When >50% of your networth is stuck in property, I think would be scared to change the status quo even when if the status quo is bad.

Ok... how about release the news at 6.59pm effective 7.00pm?

 

Still giving investors time to digest and yet stop the irrational buying frenzy that the developers are feeding off from.

 

Then what if I didn't hear of the news at 6:59 pm and signed the OTP at 7 pm? 

 

kanna jialat jialat? 

 

The better way would be to implement it a month from now. Buyers and sellers have time to digest the news and make an informed decision.

 

 

In general, short time period only benefits insiders who might already be privy to the information. I said in general hor, ah gong, please don't come after me.

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it is interesting to see the contrasting views of bulls and bears in this thread talking about singapore pte property trend 

 

in the context of this thread which focus on pte price trend, bulls are people who are happy to see pte price going up, eg they could had bought pte properties at prices lower than the current PPI (property price index) and enjoying capital appreciation; or could have bought at higher PPI and are now happy to 'break-even'. 

 

on the other hand, bears are people who are happy to see pte price going down; these are likely people who had sold their properties and waiting for the next downturn to re-enter the market again at a lower PPI. bears are also likely to be HDB owners looking to upgrade to pte, or to buy a 2nd property while keeping the HDB

 

i tend to agree with the bulls' views in this thread. the general consensus is for the long run, it makes sense to stay vested in private property, as capital appreciation outpace the rate of inflation, and it is better to stay vested earlier than later, as new record prices always outweigh records set previously. now that HDB-pte price gap widening. the barrier to entry is even higher than pre-2017. not sure if the gap will narrow in future, and if so, by how much. but one thing for sure, bears who do not react early, will still remain as bears. bulls who had act earlier, will continue to be bulls, for as long as they stay vested

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Always good to be a bit bearish when everyone is bullish, and to be a bull when everyone else are bears.

 

Want to short circuit the system by buying enbloc ready units, beware of risks (for bulls) even though the prices will eventually rise for them to sell! Want to sell at profit (bears) and/or wait for significant dip in prices before buying (bears), must make sure the dip falls way below the additional taxes one has to pay for the move to make sense.

 

Look long term. With the Govt setting target of price growth of properties at income growth of population, backed by a whole pandora box of CMs to be unleashed in the worst case scenarios, what can we lose by supporting them?

 

For me, just aim for long term annual price growth of 2 or 3% plus the rent collection, I'll be very happy already. 

Edited by Showster
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Thanks for sharing.

 

Means there will either be home shelter or some kind of stairway level shelter designed to withstand collapse.

Edited by Showster

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Thanks for sharing.

 

Means there will either be home shelter or some kind of stairway level shelter designed to withstand collapse.

No worry bro ... SIC

 

Dun matter what kind, if the bombs do come ... better standby some climbing ropes ...

those staying on high floors ... a parachute! [laugh][:p]

post-18880-0-31274000-1531148114_thumb.jpg

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Wa... like that mean the latest absd increase got up like no up? UPtrend party continue? [sly][:p]

Goody good ... no loss to buyers, less profit for developers [thumbsup]

 

No wonder hearsay new launch still packed with buyers.

The latest absd/ltv dun affect enbloc millionaires/cash rich buyers, want to buy will still buy.

I reckon some first time buyers may also use this discount time window to enter, or later ahgong shift goalpost again ... will be even more expensive to buy ;)

 

:D

As mention, first weekend after ABSD increase

 

Chiong ah! [:p]

 

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/what-cooling-measures-weekend-buyers-still-flocking-to-showflats

What cooling measures? Weekend buyers still flocking to showflats

July 10, 2018

 

(The Stirling Residences show suite over the weekend. The Logan Property and Nanshan Group development sold around 50 units between last Friday and Monday, at around S$1,800 psf.)

post-18880-0-11056000-1531182291_thumb.jpg

post-18880-0-16110100-1531182297_thumb.jpg

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Strange as it may sound, the money you are spending actually doesn’t exist as a real commodity, they are actually ‘quasi’, and that has to do with the way money is created by this mechanism called ‘fractional reserve banking’.

 

Whenever you make a cash deposit to a bank, the bank keeps a portion of your money and rest of it is loaned out to gain interest. This means that the moment you bank in your money, it becomes ‘quasi’ – because the bulk of it is loaned out to gain interest.

 

The only reason why banks can make this work is because not everyone withdraws all the cash at any one time. The moment everyone tries to withdraw all the cash at any one time, banks will face a liquidity crunch because the loans they made out of your cash deposits are not readily convertible to cash. In reality you are giving the bank credit in that you trust them to be able to produce your cash deposits on demand. Likewise when bank loans money to you (say to buy car or buy house), they are giving you credit in the hope that you are able to repay the loan with interests. So the whole banking system and money creation is built upon trust and confidence.

 

Now you see why it is important for borrowers to repay loans to lenders, so as to maintain the confidence and trust that the entire banking system is built upon. A large numbers of defaulters at any one time could actually crash an economy - remember what happened during the Global Financial Crisis? Likewise a large number of withdrawals at any one time could also crash the banking system, by the same principle.

 

Banks take risk when they issue loans. House and car loans are relatively less risky to banks because these are backed by collateral (Collateral are asset that a borrower offers as a way for a lender to secure the loan. If the borrower defaults on loan payments, the lender can seize the collateral to recoup losses); on the other hand, there are high risk loans such as personal credit and business loans, which are not backed by collateral; but these are more lucrative for the banks due to the higher interests.

 

As of 1Q2018, we know that the 3 local banks have about 40-50% of their loan portfolio exposed to the property sector, including home loans. All is good until signs of over exuberance in the perceived value of the commodity, aka ‘bubble’ start to appear. If the sellers start to price their property at ‘future value’ and buyers accept the inflated prices as the ‘new norm’, new benchmark in the PPI is created.

 

Such bullish sentiments are not always groundless, but are often created out of fear of losing out. People buy properties primarily for own stay. But when they buy 2nd and subsequent houses, these properties become investment commodities, which could be speculative in nature. This may be de-linked from fundamentals (eg did rental rise in tandem with the property price?) because more often than not, investment commodities are priced based on perceived ‘future value’, and not how strong it is correlated with the fundamentals.

 

While some critics say that the cooling measures introduced this time could be overly-hasty and aggressive, I think it is positive for the overall health of our banking system. Afterall, our economy depends heavily on the strength of our currency. Over-inflation is the last thing we want.

 

 

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it is interesting to see the contrasting views of bulls and bears in this thread talking about singapore pte property trend

 

in the context of this thread which focus on pte price trend, bulls are people who are happy to see pte price going up, eg they could had bought pte properties at prices lower than the current PPI (property price index) and enjoying capital appreciation; or could have bought at higher PPI and are now happy to 'break-even'.

 

on the other hand, bears are people who are happy to see pte price going down; these are likely people who had sold their properties and waiting for the next downturn to re-enter the market again at a lower PPI. bears are also likely to be HDB owners looking to upgrade to pte, or to buy a 2nd property while keeping the HDB

 

i tend to agree with the bulls' views in this thread. the general consensus is for the long run, it makes sense to stay vested in private property, as capital appreciation outpace the rate of inflation, and it is better to stay vested earlier than later, as new record prices always outweigh records set previously. now that HDB-pte price gap widening. the barrier to entry is even higher than pre-2017. not sure if the gap will narrow in future, and if so, by how much. but one thing for sure, bears who do not react early, will still remain as bears. bulls who had act earlier, will continue to be bulls, for as long as they stay vested

Bears have also been bulls before, just that bears and bulls have different time horizons for entry and exit. When key economic indicators point more towards a drop, I can't see eye to eye with those who talk up the market just because they are vested. Rising interest rates and depressed rental could only mean a downward trend for pre pty prices, unless of course one refuses to accept that fact. Pty agents are the worst lot, they will always be singing the bear tune as that is the only way to convince people to part their money for new launches which are selling at ridiculous prices.
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Bears have also been bulls before, just that bears and bulls have different time horizons for entry and exit. When key economic indicators point more towards a drop, I can't see eye to eye with those who talk up the market just because they are vested. Rising interest rates and depressed rental could only mean a downward trend for pre pty prices, unless of course one refuses to accept that fact. Pty agents are the worst lot, they will always be singing the bear tune as that is the only way to convince people to part their money for new launches which are selling at ridiculous prices.

property agents Do Not always sing bear tune.

 

They are smart. When you want to buy or invest, they tell you how Bull is the market with all their bull shit.

 

When you ask them to sell or rent out, they tell you how bear is the market.

 

Their objective is their commission. So they talk until seller lower price expectation and buyer increase their offer price.

 

Recently, I called a bull shit agent regarding a unit he advertised. When he said ground floor, I said I not interested, bye bye. He refused to hang up, kept asking why. I said:

No privacy! He said nobody walk pass there.

Mosquitoes! He said fogging is done every week.

Facing highway, super noisy! He said quiet.

 

Hahahahaha, his lies made him look so dumb. This bull shit king has no idea I already got a unit in that project and I was looking for a second unit and I know that place inside out.

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defer gst? wait long long la ....

wp ah singh ask already ....

 

 

He asked is regarding abortion HSR.

 

He never asked regarding the new ABSD tax collection.

 

Surely can defray other taxes such as vehicular or property tax. Good for all!

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property agents Do Not always sing bear tune.

 

They are smart. When you want to buy or invest, they tell you how Bull is the market with all their bull shit.

 

When you ask them to sell or rent out, they tell you how bear is the market.

 

Their objective is their commission. So they talk until seller lower price expectation and buyer increase their offer price.

 

Recently, I called a bull shit agent regarding a unit he advertised. When he said ground floor, I said I not interested, bye bye. He refused to hang up, kept asking why. I said:

No privacy! He said nobody walk pass there.

Mosquitoes! He said fogging is done every week.

Facing highway, super noisy! He said quiet.

 

Hahahahaha, his lies made him look so dumb. This bull shit king has no idea I already got a unit in that project and I was looking for a second unit and I know that place inside out.

The 3 C’s commonly used lor. Convince, then Confuse, then Con!
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